January 2, 2009, the first trading day of the new year.

Since the outbreak of more than $6 billion in Treasury transactions in the market, the sentiment of the entire U.S. 10-year Treasury bond market has been completely ignited, and the daily trading volume of only a few hundred million dollars has instantly jumped to an average of $2 billion per day, and yields have begun to fluctuate violently.

But anyone with a discerning eye can see that the operations on the disk are all made by small funds, and the so-called yield fluctuations are just a flash in the pan, and these fluctuations can basically be ignored after the intervention of the real giants. What these institutions are doing now is nothing more than taking a shot in the fire.

The market is fermenting emotions, and the bulls and bears are waiting with their hands.

From the last trading day to New Year's Day, all kinds of news flew in the sky, among which the heavy news that was unfavorable to the bulls alone reached as many as several.

Before New Year's Day, the Wall Street Journal published a large article claiming that the US Treasury market was volatile, and even more faintly hinted that an unusual struggle may have broken out in the 10-year Treasury market.

According to the scale and influence of the Wall Street Journal, this is tantamount to issuing a declaration of war, and the situation is suddenly unfavorable for Tianyu Fund.

In addition, among traders, there is also a rumor that the Tianyu Fund's position is too large and it is difficult to ride the tiger. In addition to these unverifiable news, a broker broke the news that a broker whose main customer is from Southeast Asia has issued a margin call to its clients in order to reduce its own risk.

Of course, the veracity of this rumor is still in doubt, but it has undoubtedly greatly ignited the confidence of the bears.

Among these miscellaneous news, there are also several official news. One of them is that the Ministry of Finance of China announced at a regular press conference that in the next few months. The Chinese government will not seek to continue to increase its holdings of U.S. Treasuries. Although this news does not have much to do with the 10-year treasury bond market, to a certain extent, it cuts off the possibility of Tianyu Fund receiving assistance from the Chinese government.

In other news, a rotating governor of the Federal Reserve announced that the current US interest rate has reached an extremely low level, and the possibility of further adjustment is not very large. The next FOMC meeting. Reducing interest rates will not be the main item of discussion. Of course, the governor especially stressed that the recovery of the US economy must be judged based on the latest economic data before making relevant judgments.

Of course, this latter premise has been selectively ignored by the market, and after a wave of hype, many investors have heard the news that the Fed will not cut interest rates at the next FOMC meeting.

This news is particularly heavy because it means that so far, in order to avoid entering a liquidity trap. The Fed has had to pay attention to the decline in long-term interest rates, and its work has shifted from boosting the economy to preventing inflation, although it is only preliminary speculation from the outside world, but it is undoubtedly a great factor for the bond market.

The combination of these factors puts serious pressure on the bond bulls. Among them, Tianyu Fund is the most important.

"Everything is ready!"

After going to the bathroom to wash his face, Jiang Shan saw Zhong Shi sitting in the trading room, looking at the market with his face up. His face was expressionless, and his eyes were burning. I don't know what I'm thinking.

Jiang Shan thought about it for a while, and decided to speak first to comfort Zhong Shi, "So far, we only have a position of more than 15 billion US dollars, and if necessary, we can clear this position within a week." However, it may be a bit of a loss. The estimated figure is around $2 billion. ”

"Liquidate your position?"

Zhong Shi woke up from his contemplation and looked at Jiang Shan puzzled, "When did I say such a thing?" ”

"It's not ......"

Jiang Shan rubbed his hands vigorously, his expression was a little embarrassed, he thought that during this time. Zhong Shi's request for help failed, so now he looks preoccupied, "The Huaxia Ministry of Finance has just announced that it will not increase its holdings of treasury bonds in the near future, I thought you would ......"

"Where did you think of it? Ha, I see, do you think my allies are the Huaxia government? Before he finished speaking, Zhong Shi understood what Jiang Shan was trying to express, and immediately laughed and said heartily, "Little guy, you think too much. But even if the Chinese government helps me, do you think the U.S. government will sit idly by? And how much can they help us? $50 billion? $100 billion? Don't think about it, it's impossible. ”

"That ......"

Jiang Shan opened his mouth, but he didn't know what to say.

"Let's do a good job!" Zhong Shi naturally knew about Jiangshan's little thoughts, stood up, patted him on the shoulder, and said with a smile, "Don't inquire about things that shouldn't be inquired, you will naturally know when the time comes." ”

"But we don't have much cash right now, and when we run out, we'll ...... Finished! Jiang Shan was in a hurry, and blurted out, "If your allies don't make a move, then we may use up all the funds by next Monday." ”

"Everything will be settled this weekend!"

Zhong Shi stopped and looked straight at the country for a long time, his eyes were so sharp that he went straight to his heart. It is also strange to say that the originally restless Jiangshan gradually settled down. After Jiang Shan's mood stabilized, Zhong Shi grinned, touched his cheeks, and pinched it hard, then said, "Don't worry, everything has me, look at how things change, you must study hard." ”

Jiang Shan nodded vigorously, like a child who had been taught by his father.

……

"Did you do it?"

Inside the Quantum Fund, Soros walked into the office with beads of sweat on his head, took out a hundred-dollar bill, and handed it to the caddie who had been helping him carry his golf bag. Jones asked.

"Not yet!"

Rodney. Jones only felt a smell of sweat coming to his nose, and quietly took two steps back before replying, "I think Pacific Investment Management is probably also moving positions." After all, if the $2 billion position can't shake the Tianyu Fund, the next wave of offensive should be more than that. ”

"Perhaps, but this guy won't give up."

Soros took off his coat and walked to the back of the office, where there was a separate bathroom, wide enough for a shower. "Ronnie, you keep an eye on the plate first, our goal has been achieved. Let's let Gross fight Bell Stone himself, we can start a war if necessary, but we must not accumulate too many positions. ”

"I understand!"

Before the door to the room was slammed shut, Rodney. Jones hurriedly said. Then he silently exited Soros's office, waved at the traders in the trading room, and said, "Let's go!" ”

At the sound of the order, the traders who had been gearing up immediately began to act, either on the phone or on the keyboard, sending a signal to enter the market.

All of a sudden, there were more sell orders in the market.

……

"Is the Quantum Fund moving again?"

Not long after Soros's fund began to act, the news reached the West Coast. Gross and his traders had been waiting impatiently, and when he heard the news, he was relieved, "So, everything is true." ”

He didn't say what was true, and no one dared to ask him what he was referring to. After two minutes of coldness, Gross turned to look at them and said coldly. "Let's do it!"

In the space of a few days, the Pacific Investment Management Company borrowed another $5 billion in 10-year Treasury bonds. There is also $5 billion in Treasury bonds under negotiation, which means that if this attack does not work, Pacific Investment Management has more ammunition on top.

Although the yield of government bonds does not fluctuate very much, in the face of such a large amount of money, the loss and profit generated is still a large number. Now to mobilize the emotions of the market, what Gross needs to do is. Use market forces against the bulls, especially Tianyu Fund.

Strategically despising the opponent and tactically valuing the opponent is Gross's style.

With the launch of Quantum Fund and Pacific Investment Management, the market, which was originally just a small fight, immediately became different. First of all, there was a row of sell orders for Treasury bonds of $50 million, which was the vanguard. When this line of numbers appeared in the sell column, the small agencies backed down, knowing that the main event had begun.

A total of $500 million in sell orders were listed on the ten price columns, and the line with the lowest price was the first to be broken, which was the original bulls who were caught off guard and were directly matched by the system. But when they saw the menacing bears, these small bulls hurriedly withdrew their buy orders, for fear that they would accidentally close the deal again.

For the bears, it is a surge in confidence, they have put up sell orders at the high level, lined up and waited for the bulls to attack. All of a sudden, more and more buy orders gathered above the bears.

$500 million is not much, but this is a clear signal, soon not long after, another wave of bears entered the market, this time the momentum is obviously different from the previous wave, a shake of the hand is directly a $1 billion sell order, directly piled up at the position of 3.6% yield, instantly raised the yield by 20 basis points, directly reached 3.8%, the sell order was transferred to the position of 3.85%.

At the same time, the purchase orders in the vicinity piled up more and more, and soon broke through the $2 billion mark, once again forming a seemingly impregnable fortress.

In the buyer column, there were few buyers, and the yield rose sharply, soon breaking through to 3.9%, and when it was approaching 4.0%, the market found that there were about 1,500 buy orders piled up at the 4.0% position, which should be a line of defense for the bulls.

3.85% to 4.0%, this is the defense line of the long and short sides, under the heavy display, both sides did not choose to take the initiative for a while. The market is so deadlocked.

But everyone knows that this stalemate is only temporary, and soon this balance will be broken!

Now, it's up to us to see who will strike first! (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you book friends dair01 and smart 008 for voting for the monthly pass! Thanks for the tip! It's very hard to write now, and I finally wrote a chapter, everyone watched it first, and the author continued to adjust the state and organize his thoughts......