Chapter 194: Random Walk
Lin Shi shook his head after reading the news report, everything is caused by greed, just remember that there is no free lunch in the world is enough to avoid such a scam. And those who are conceited enough to recognize such a scam and get out before it, probably only 5 out of 100 will leave before it collapses.
"Ding ......" Lin Shi's mobile phone on the table rang suddenly.
"Customers ask when the stock will go up." Lin Shi looked at the message sent by Tan Yue, and was a little helpless for a while, if Lin Shi knew when the stock would rise, he could go to borrow usury, and then go to the over-the-counter company to allocate capital, and then open a U.S. stock trading, and use the brokerage's financing service plus 4 times the leverage to buy call options, and in less than half a year, his net worth can surpass that of Warren Buffett, the god of stocks. Compound interest is absolutely powerful!
Lin Shi replied: "I don't know," If I knew, would I still work hard? All I can say is that if nothing happens, the stock price will go up. ”
What responded to Lin Shi was Tan Yue's expression - white eyes.
Putting down the mobile phone, Lin Shi began to use the method of search engine to investigate stocks, first of all, the top ten duck neck brands, after eliminating some unlisted companies, Lin Shi found several companies, but the performance growth was not very good. Then Lin Shi changed the keyword, the top ten razor brands ranked, and after exclusion and selection, Lin Shi found a stock that met his requirements - Keda Electric.
Subsequently, Lin Shi used Baidu to search about this company
Founded in 1997, after nearly 10 years of leapfrog development, Keda Electric Appliance Co., Ltd. has now become an enterprise integrating R&D, manufacturing and sales of razors and small household appliances with "technology research and development" and "brand operation" as its core competitiveness. On November 13, 2012, it was officially renamed as S City Keda Electric Co., Ltd.
At present, it has formed a development strategic pattern with S city as the group headquarters and B city and A city as the production base, with a strong development momentum. The company now has more than 100 independent innovation patents; It is the drafting unit of the national standard of the shaver industry. It is a landmark brand in the electric shaver industry in Huaxia and the first brand recognized in the shaver industry in Huaxia. In 2011 and 2012, it was awarded the "Top 100 S Private Enterprises" for two consecutive years, and in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012, it was awarded the "No. 1 in the market sales of similar products" and "No. 1 in the comprehensive market share of the national market" for four consecutive years.
After reading some official basic information, Lin Shi called up the financial report of this stock in the capital market, which was Lan Xin's sudden shout: "Lin Shi." ”
Lin Shi turned his head to look at her, "What's wrong?" ”
"How about helping me see this stock? It is a listed company that sells snacks. ”
Lin Shi got up and came to Lan Xin's side, and before he got closer, there was a body fragrance and hair fragrance, filling Lin Shi's sense of smell. After eliminating the bad thoughts in his heart, Lin Shi moved his gaze to Lan Xin's screen.
"Why are they all candlesticks?" Lin Shi asked.
"Just let you help me analyze this K-line chart, see how big the probability is that it will rise tomorrow, if it exceeds 50% in your eyes, then I will buy it now."
"This ......" Lin Shi smiled bitterly, and then said, "I don't understand technical analysis, I only understand fundamentals." ”
"Don't understand technical analysis? How can it be? A hint of surprise appeared in Lan Xin's eyes, and he thought that Lin Shi was unwilling to help him, "Are you afraid that I will blame you if the stock falls?" I won't, you just do your best to analyze it. ”
"Lin Shi, don't pay attention to her, she is a chart trender, she has to look at the chart to buy anything, and she won't buy it if she doesn't look at the chart." Li Xiao shrugged his shoulders and said.
"Of course, I am a chart trender, and the existence value of all chart charts is based on a hypothesis, that is, stocks, foreign exchange, gold, bonds, etc. All investments are influenced by economic, political, and social factors, which repeat themselves like history. ”
"For example, if the economy recovers from the Great Depression, property prices, the stock market, gold, etc., will all go up. After the rise, there will be a fall, but after the fall, it will rise again. Even in the short term, all the laws governing the value of investments are inseparable from the factors mentioned above, as long as I can predict which factors dominate the price, I can predict the future trend. In the case of stocks, chart trends, volumes, price levels, etc., reflect the mindset of retail investors. The reason for this mentality is to deny their income, age, understanding of news, acceptance and digestion, and confidence in the situation, all of which are reflected in the stock price and transactions. Based on the chart, you can predict the future stock price trend. ”
In order to justify the chart trend, Lan Xin said her views on trading at once, and Li Xiao, who had just spoken, was stunned.
"I don't think you know a lot." Lin Shi smiled bitterly and said, "But have you ever heard of a theory called random walking?" ”
"Immediately strolling theory?" Lan Xin's eyes rolled, looking at her as if she was trying to recall something, and then she said, "No, I may have heard it before, but maybe it's not something important, so I'll forget it now." ”
"Okay." "Random Walk Theory is contrary to the chart trend school view, which states that there are thousands of shrewd people in the stock market, not all of whom are ignorant. Everybody knows how to analyze, and all the information that flows into the market is open and accessible to all, and there are no secrets. ”
"Since you know, and I know, the current price of stocks already reflects supply and demand. Or the value itself will not be too far away. The so-called intrinsic value is measured by looking at basic factors such as asset value per share, price-earnings ratio, and dividend payout ratio. These factors are no big secret. Anyone who opens a newspaper or magazine can find this information. ”
"If a stock asset is worth $10, it will never become worth $100 or $1 in the market. No one in the market will buy the stock for $100 or sell it for $1. At present, the market price of the stock has basically represented the opinion of tens of millions of eye-catching people, and constitutes a reasonable price. The market price fluctuates around intrinsic value. These fluctuations are random and have no trace. ”
"Your theory is a bit ridiculous." Lan Xin pursed his lips and said, "If this theory is true, it doesn't prove that Warren Buffett is actually no different from retail investors, but he is luckier than retail investors." ”
Lin Shi smiled, "There is such a possibility, but the value investment that Buffett follows is indeed effective, several times, Buffett just bought the stock, and the stock fell, but as time went on, the stock price rose again." ”
"It's a pity that he didn't dare to come to the Huaxia stock market, otherwise he would definitely lose money and be in debt." Lan Xin said with a smile.
"I've heard a lot of people say things like that." Lin Shi said helplessly, "Generally, 90% of people who say such things continue to lose money in the capital market, and they do not have their own trading system and beliefs. ”
Lan Xin covered his face with his hand, with a hint of sadness in his tone: "Isn't this me?" ”
Lin Shi glanced at her angrily, "Tune out the fundamentals, and I'll take a look at it for you." ”
"Oh, okay." Lan Xin pressed F10, and a statement and a discount chart of profit growth suddenly appeared on the computer screen, and Lin Shi just saw this financial report and said: "This stock can be excluded." ”
"Why? The K-line listing average bullish trend, the trading volume has repeatedly hit new highs, the news media are reporting how good the stock is, and even some financial experts are advocating such stocks on TV. Lan Xin was a little puzzled by Lin Shi's categorical reaction, in her eyes, such a stock was simply a rare "bull stock".
"Sister, the return on net assets is 5%, the gross profit margin of sales is lower than that of companies in the same industry, and the net profit growth rate is only positive for one year in five years. Lin Shi said, "What's more, this company is not very rich in cash, accounts receivable is high, and liabilities are relatively high, if you use the current ratio to analyze, such a stock may even be a problem to repay short-term debts." ”
"I understand what you said, but stocks that meet your requirements either rise too high, or continue to fall, making people want to buy but dare not buy." Lan Xin said with a bitter face, "My dream is to become a god-level trader like Jesse Livermore, just by looking at the chart, I know what kind of trend will be in the future." ”
Lin Shi nodded, indicating that he understood her thoughts, and then changed the conversation and asked, "Then do you know his final ending?" ”
"Suicide." Lan Xin glanced at Lin Shi, and then followed Lin Shi's example, and said: "But he made a lot of money in the capital market, although he lost a lot of money later, his old age was not as poor as the biography that sold in the market, he was still very rich." ”
"Of course I do." Lin Shi smiled and said, "A person like him is very sensitive to numbers, he will observe the market fluctuations of the whole world, and will not only look at the fluctuations of a single stock, and he can firmly believe in his own views when the stock loses, which you don't seem to be able to do." ”
Lan Xinqiao's face flushed, she didn't know that Lin Shi was referring to the short-term escape of Lunwei Food, so she had to pout and say, "Then I am also considering the short-term risk." ”
"Poof......" Li Xiao laughed directly on the side, "If you want to refute, you have to find a better reason, what about short-term risk control, in the final analysis, it's not because you have no bottom about the trend behind this stock, after all, you are a pure chart school, unless the stock can keep rising, otherwise you will not hold it for a long time." ”
"Shut up, shut up, shut up! I'm obviously thinking about short-term risks! Lan Xin continued to pout.
……