Chapter 0259: Prisoner's Dilemma
Su Maoxiong hesitated, and Xu Haodong asked more and more, the more he felt that he was playing a big knife in front of Guan Gong. Some things are too sensitive, and he didn't want to say it, but since Xu Haodong wanted to "test" him, he had to give everything he had, anyway, the speaker was not guilty.
"Secretary Haodong, I just flipped through a book he wrote, and I haven't had time to read it carefully, but I read one of his counter-thoughts. To put it simply, everyone can achieve the altruism of the whole society from the standpoint of self-interest. It must be admitted that self-interest here is self-interest that does not infringe on others, but self-interest that compromises and balances, that is, mutual benefit is achieved through negotiation and negotiation. It cannot be said that his explanation is unreasonable, in our daily life, commodity production and commodity trading, as well as business negotiations, all follow this principle of self-interest and altruism. ”
Xu Haodong asked: "What's wrong with his theory?" ”
"His views are not universal truth and cannot be applied at all times and in any way. It is wrong to look at all things by the criterion of truth. In a sense, his principle of merit-based distribution is completely wrong. That is, the significance of the classical Newton's theorem and Einstein's theory of relativity in physics, Newton's theorem cannot explain the phenomena of the universe, nor can it be applied to the microscopic world. The equilibrium theory in economics is the theory of relativity that shatters his theory. The equilibrium theory proves that his principle of merit-based distribution is extremely absurd. If he doesn't understand equilibrium theory, then he should take off his hat as an economist, and if he knows equilibrium theory, but still uses merit-based distribution to fool around, it is definitely not as simple as swindling. ”
Xu Haodong smiled, "What kind of equilibrium theory is?" ”
"There is a movie in the United States called "A Beautiful Mind", which has won four awards at the 74th Academy Awards, and the actor Russell Crowe plays the economist Nash in the film. Nash is a professor at Princeton University in the United States and won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1994 for proposing Nash's equilibrium theory. In layman's terms, the optimal combination of individual people from the standpoint of self-interest will not achieve the overall optimal result, and the final outcome is a Nash equilibrium, which is unfavorable to everyone. ”
Xu Haodong nodded, "There is a famous story of the prisoner's dilemma, which can explain the Nash equilibrium very well, Lao Ding and Zhang Ping may not be able to understand the Nash equilibrium, but they must be interested in the prisoner's dilemma." ”
"There was a murder case of theft, and the evidence of Zhang San and Li Si's theft was conclusive, but the evidence of homicide was insufficient. So the police interrogated the two in isolation, and said to Zhang San and Li Si respectively: Because of the crime of theft, you will face a one-year prison sentence, but you can make a deal, if you admit to the crime of murder, you can be regarded as a meritorious service, and you only need to be imprisoned for three months, and your accomplice will be sentenced to ten years in prison, if you do not confess, and your accomplice confesses, you will be sentenced to ten years in prison, and your accomplice will be free after three months, and if you both confess, then you will each serve five years in prison. Obviously, Zhang San and Li Si both chose not to confess, and serving one year in prison each is the best result. ”
Xu Haodong said: "Human nature determines that Zhang San and Li Si will both ponder in the same direction. ”
"According to this economist's merit-based distribution theory, rational people will start from the standpoint of self-interest, Zhang San and Li Si will both calculate like this: 'If he admits it, I don't, I have to stay in prison for ten years, so it is beneficial for me to admit it, if I confess, he also confesses, I will also go to five years in prison, and I will also confess that it is beneficial to myself, if I admit it, and he denies it, I will only have to sit for three months, and he will be in prison for ten years, which is also to admit that it is beneficial to himself.'" Therefore, whether he recruits or not, for me, it is in his own favor. In the end, both Zhang San and Li Si would choose to confess, and both would be sentenced to five years in prison, and the one-year sentence that would be most beneficial to both would not appear. ”
Xu Haodong snorted, "Why is this?" ”
Because rational people don't take this risk, they only choose what is good for themselves, which is what an economist calls merit-based distribution, but the result is completely opposite to his conclusions, and contrary to neoliberal economic theory. Smith's theory of the market economy held that the invisible hand regulates the self-interested individual in order to maximize the benefit of the whole. But Smith failed to consider that if the number of individuals involved was small, then every decision-maker would be concerned about what everyone else thought. Therefore, a complete market economy will not work in global integration and commercial games between countries, so another set of theories is needed to guide it. ”
Xu Haodong nodded again, "To put it bluntly, his set is just a family's words, and he is not much different from Zhang San and Li Si." ”
"Yes, the condition for Zhang San and Li Si to get the best result is collusion, as economists, Qiu Youke does not understand Nash equilibrium, it is unimaginable. So why does he define everything in terms of limited merit-based distribution? There is only one explanation, and he has colluded with each other. He waved the flag for real estate developers and spoke for the rich, which is his performance after colluding with confessions, and the reason why many people still believe his words is because his status in the economic field is still quite high. ”
Hearing this, Xu Haodong laughed, "Haha......"
Su Maoxiong hurriedly asked: "Secretary Haodong, did I say something wrong?" ”
"No, no, no, you're so right, haha...... The hero sees the same thing, and when you talk about the status of the rivers and lakes, you think of it together. ”
After laughing, Xu Haodong said: "This old guy's status in the rivers and lakes is indeed very awesome, but the status of the rivers and lakes is not the same as the academic status, and the people in the rivers and lakes often like to confuse and deliberately say that the status of the rivers and lakes is an academic status." In our country, the status of the rivers and lakes is generally determined by ability, and Song Jiang, who has low martial arts, can be the boss of Liangshanbo, not by fighting and strategizing, the so-called kung fu is outside the poem. In our country, if you are old enough and thick-skinned enough to dare to talk nonsense, you will generally have a lot of reputation and a high status in the rivers and lakes, and if you can still recite a few scientific spells, then the reputation of masters and experts will roll in.
Not only Su Maoxiong laughed, but also Ding Shangping and Zhang Ping.
Xu Haodong said: "If Chinese football is a river and lake, then the highest status of the rivers and lakes should be the chairman of the Football Association, but the chairman of the Football Association does not necessarily have the best football skills, and he does not even need to be able to play." If you look at your public security system as a river and lake, then your ministers, directors, and directors are the ones with the highest status, but they don't need to solve cases themselves, and they don't even need to know how to solve cases. I am in the same position, if Yunling City is a river and lake, I am the highest status person in this river and lake, I don't need to know everything, and I don't need to do everything personally, for example, the development of the Dawan Islands, I only need to launch this project, and the specific promotion, operation, and implementation of this project do not need me to do it personally. The similar situation is that the old guy is very famous, as for whether his real level is high or not, his theory is not effective, he does not need to be responsible, and he does not need to practice it himself. ”
At this time, Ding Shangping asked: "Secretary Haodong, you called us out, isn't it, isn......'t it?"
Xu Haodong looked at the night outside the car window, and said two words lightly, "him." ”