Chapter 289: The European Consortium (2)
Paulson's statement immediately put others in a difficult situation.
Originally, everyone was the same team, although it was a loose alliance, but this was the first time Zhong Shi had spoken, and it was difficult for everyone to refuse; The second is that Zhong Shi and Paulson will take half of the share, and the remaining five billion euros will be evenly distributed among everyone's heads, which is only about one billion euros, which is not too big.
The most important thing is that Zhong Shi made it clear that it is a short-term short sale, and as long as some hedging measures are made in options or forwards, the risk can be almost minimized.
And once Zhong Shi's request is refused, the most serious consequence is that they will be removed from the team. If this is the case, the consequences will be dire.
After figuring out what was at stake, the other five didn't hesitate and quickly reached an agreement. Among them, Derio contributed 1.5 billion euros, and the remaining share of 3.5 billion euros was divided equally among the other four.
"500 million euros in stock, 1.2330 at a price, the focus is on the banks in Europe, see if anyone wants to take the deal!"
After switching to the broker channel in the United States, Zhong Shi continued to give orders, "The American banks will leave it alone for the time being, and I will see what is wrong in Europe." ”
Soon, the results of the trader's inquiries came out, and this time it was the National Bank of Italy that took over the deal. Despite the fact that the euro was trading at around 1.2335 against the dollar, the Italians did not hesitate to take a large sell order that was slightly lower than the market price.
After a momentary pause in trading, Bell Stone wanted to see if the Italians were planning to make a profit, after all, the market price was higher than the price they bought. But fifteen minutes later, he carefully observed all the transactions on the board, and there was no such big deal, which made Zhong Shi realize. The Italians are not going to make a move anytime soon.
At this time, because of the entry of Paulson and others, the number of sales increased significantly. The euro also began to plummet against the dollar, soon breaking through the level of 1.2330.
"Maybe it's because of this that the Italians aren't in a hurry to arbitrage, right?"
Looking at the numbers jumping quickly on the screen, Jiang Shan said thoughtfully, "After all, for commercial banks." Their arbitrage also has to add interest costs, and this base profit is not taken into account by them, right? ”
Calculated by one basis point, the fluctuation of 500 million euros above and below the basis point means a profit of 50,000 euros, which is a large profit for foreign exchange trading. But even if the interest part is included, it does not constitute the reason for Jiang Shan's statement.
"You're underestimating the Italians!"
Zhong Shi shook his head slowly, his face seemed to be covered with a layer of frost and ugly, and then instructed the traders, "Call the traders of the Royal Bank of Scotland, five hundred million euros." 1.2225 price, ask them if they are interested? ”
He was determined to try again.
Jiang Shan was surprised by Zhong Shi's decision, he lowered his head and thought about it for a long time, but he still didn't understand the key.
It didn't take long for news from Europe that the Bank of Scotland did not even participate too much in bargaining, and directly ate the sale order. To the surprise of traders. After the traders on the RBS side ate the deal, they even had unfulfilled intentions. Directly ask Tianyu Fund how many euros there is in stock and want to sell.
The trader had no authorization and could only run over to Bell Stone and ask him.
"Them?"
Now even Jiangshan realized that it was not good, because the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar on the disk continued to fall, whether it was Santander, RBS Royal Bank of Scotland or National Bank of Italy, the euro on hand was depreciating at a rapid rate, and it would be good if they stopped their losses at this time. But instead of doing this, the RBS side continued to increase their positions.
Very abnormal!
For the foreign exchange trading of commercial banks, what the trader does is to buy and sell during the day on the computer, and the risk control system behind the whole system monitors these transactions, and starts to alarm when a certain red line is reached. Close these losing positions as soon as possible.
So when RBS and other institutions still had to eat more positions despite their losses, Jiangshan realized that the situation was somewhat abnormal.
"Looks like you're aware of something wrong, too!"
Zhong Shi was speechless about Jiangshan's hindsight, but this was not the time to pursue these, he quickly replied to the trader, "1 billion euros, the price of 1.2222, ask them if they want it?" ”
Tianyu Fund threw out 1 billion euros again, which obviously exceeded RBS's expectations, and after five minutes of communication, they replied again, "The price of 1.2222 is all received according to the order!" ”
This time not only Jiangshan, but even Zhong Shi was a little shocked.
According to the numbers on the board, if RBS had not shipped at a high level, then they would have lost millions of euros now, which is quite a terrifying figure. But the weirdest thing is that even so, they still have plans to continue to reduce their positions.
"Why the hell is that?"
After the deal was reached, Zhong Shi decisively ended his strategy of continuing to smash the market and returned to his office to hold an urgent consultation meeting with everyone.
"Gentlemen, how much did you smash into just now?"
Zhong Shi was the first to explain the situation here, "RBS has eaten my two spot deposits totaling up to 1.5 billion euros one after another, and the prices are lower than the other, and there is no sign of shipment at all. ”
"It's really weird!"
Paulson was also puzzled, "At the moment, the exchange rate is still falling, but the European banks are like a stimulant, and they don't ask the price at all, they just ask me if there is any stock here." Just three minutes ago, I had just closed a €300 million spot deal with Banco de Lyonnais, and before that I had sold €200 million to Banco de Lisbon. ”
"I have a spot deal of €400 million with HSBC!"
Dario also continued, "The price is around 1.2220, and the other party didn't even bargain, so he closed the deal." Just now, Barclays called and asked if we had a spot euro to sell, and the price was negotiable. ”
"I'm here too. Royal Dutch Bank ......"
Ackermann also said, "The price is similar, 100 million euros in stock, they seem to want to continue, but I stopped it." ”
Immediately afterwards, the rest of the others also expressed similar meanings. That is, when they are smashing the market with all their might, there are still many buyers in the market.
"Gentlemen, have you noticed that the main buyers of euros are from Europe!"
After listening to the narration of the crowd, Zhong Shi was keenly aware of a problem, that is, most of the buyers were large European conglomerates, "and they bought very fiercely, directly ignoring the market trend, which greatly contradicts our perception." ”
After he reminded me of this. Everyone came to understand that this was indeed the case.
"Now there are only two possibilities, one is that they have all taken the wrong medicine, and the second is that they are sure that the euro will rise in the future!"
Zhong Shi continued, "Compared to these big conglomerates, our financial advantage is not very obvious. However, by now, I believe that you should have accumulated a part of the profitable positions on hand, and I recommend that we start closing them now. The counterparty of the transaction is the European counterparty who sold first, what do you think? ”
Unusual reaction to European consortiums. Zhong Shi couldn't think of a better way for a while, if he continued to smash the game, the chips on hand would be exhausted sooner or later, which was too dangerous. At that moment, he changed his mind and decided to retreat first, and then continue the operation after the situation was clear.
"This turns?"
For this decision of Zhongshi. Paulson apparently reacted differently, "So far, we have enough leverage, just keep the euro down, at least until we run out of chips and then reverse." ”
"Regardless of their intentions. But as long as we execute our strategy, we'll look back and see what they're up to. Could it be that when the market rebounds, are we afraid that there will be no liquidity? ”
This was the first time Paulson had disputed Jongshi's opinion.
Both of them have a point, and the rest of them inevitably face the problem of picking sides.
"At least so far, the euro is still falling, and I don't see any chance of a rebound."
Dario was the first to say, "Mr. Chung, you're quite right. But now that we have formulated a strategy to smash the market, we should not give up halfway. Although the profit received today is not much, I plan to continue to smash it, and this is a very rare opportunity. ”
"It's a bit dangerous, but I think Paulson's approach should be the best."
Jim. Chanos also said, "Intraday fluctuations are normal, and this market has sufficient liquidity, so there is no possibility of closing positions." Mr. Zhong, are you worrying too much? ”
Then, others also stood up against Zhong Shi's suggestion.
This was the first time that anyone had disagreed with Zhong Shi's opinion, not with one person.
"That's what you all think?"
Zhong Shi didn't feel frustrated, but was slightly surprised by their reaction, and after pondering for a moment, he decisively gave up his previous thoughts, "If you think so, then do it." I won't close the position, so I might take advantage of you for nothing. ”
Naturally, everyone was quite satisfied with Zhong Shi's attitude. Because once Zhong Shi closes his position, with the size of his position, it is easy to cancel out all the pressure on the market caused by the continued suppression of everyone, so that his own people will fight his own people.
"But I'm going to contact the banks in Europe and see what the hell they're up to!"
However, Zhong Shi's next sentence made everyone realize that Zhong Shi actually did not give up his conjecture in his heart. However, since they will not kill each other in the market, everyone will naturally not have higher requirements for Zhong Shi.
And so it was decided.
Next, Paulson and others began to unscrupulously suppress the euro exchange rate, and a number of sell orders of hundreds of millions of euros appeared on the market one after another, and the already downward euro exchange rate accelerated the rate of decline. In this case, the banks in the United States are very cautious, but the large commercial banks from Europe do not seem to have relevant concerns, and they do not hesitate to take over almost when there is a sale, sometimes even regardless of the price.
Soon at the end of the day, the euro fell to 1.2144 against the dollar, which was not as frightening as the Asian session, but still hit a new low since 2009.
Paulson and others were very satisfied.
As for the matter of closing the position, they didn't think about it. After all, the foreign exchange market is an all-weather market, and the trading time in the United States is when the euro exchange rate is fully suppressed, and when they wait until Asia and Europe time, they will close their positions from the market, which only takes a little time.
Their joy did not last long, though, and soon Bell Stone brought news that surprised them greatly.
"European banks are not willing to sell their positions!"
After stopping the sell-off of the euro, Bell Stone ordered traders to ask RBS, Deutsche Bank, Santander and other institutions about the possibility of buying euros. However, traders frequently called, and the price was raised from 1.2200 to 1.2230, and the other party refused, and instead asked Tianyu if it had a spot position in euros to sell.
This price is basically the price at which they opened a position, and it can be said that the price given by Zhongshi is very kind, but the other party still chose to refuse without hesitation. (To be continued.) )
PS: ps: I didn't have an idea yesterday, and it was too late to write it, and I was in a hurry and even wrote the title wrong...... So update it early today~ It's another day without a single vote, but I can only blame myself for being too late, so I'm embarrassed to say anything, in short, it's not easy to write a book, sometimes it's a real headache, I hope you will understand and understand, thank you for your support, the author will continue to work hard~