Due to the lack of estimation of the copper futures market, the Quantum Fund spent a lot of money after establishing the bottom position, and later underestimated the difficulty of the rally process, and later Druckenmiller had to transfer another amount of funds, so that the Quantum Fund only established a total of less than 50,000 positions.

For Sumitomo Trading, the overlord of copper futures, this pull-up is mainly aimed at the options shorts of this month, so they did not invest too much money in the early stage, and it coincided with the crazy rise of other bulls in the process of pulling, so that they were willing to sit back and watch it, but even so, plus the positions they have always held, their total positions have reached about forty or fifty thousand hands.

Coupled with the 30,000 positions that Zhong Shi ate during this time, the total long positions of the three parties reached 1230,000 hands, accounting for 50% or 60% of the entire longs, which is already a very terrifying ratio.

Wednesday, May 18, option strike day, is the day on which options are announced to enter the market on the first Wednesday of the month. Prior to that, the price of copper futures had risen to $2,200 a tonne, which they probably did not expect until the announcement of the execution.

In just two weeks and ten trading days, the price of copper futures has risen from $2,000 to $2,200, an increase of up to 10%, which is not a big amount, but for many options parties who have announced short execution, the price may be unacceptable to them now.

Based on the price volatility in April and other months, the price of short options at that time was generally around $2,100, which meant that they had to accept a loss of $100 per ton as soon as they entered the market. That is, a loss of $2,500 per contract, which means a bigger loss for those shorts with a larger position.

But for those who choose to exercise a long option, this means that a portion of the floating profit has fallen out of thin air, and now they only need to close it at the market price to pocket the profit.

It's just unfortunate that for the various options announced for exercise this month, the bearish side still occupies the majority of the majority, while the bullish side is a small part.

Now there are only two ways in front of the new shorts, one is to admit losses and leave the market, and the other is to carry it to the end. At the moment, the market does not know the proportion of bears who are ready to leave. But everybody knows that. However, even those shorts who admit losses and exit the market can fight hard before closing their positions, so that the lower the option price on this day, the better.

Therefore, this day is the most haode day to test the financial strength of the bulls.

Opening. 2223 USD. Slightly lower than the last price of the previous trading day. This is also a normal expected response. But everyone knows that there will be a fierce battle on this day.

Sure enough, it didn't take long to open. The price of copper futures took a sharp turn, falling to $2,210 almost instantly, and there was a steady stream of selling.

"What's going on?" In the United States, within the Quantum Fund, traders were a little unable to react, although they didn't care much about this decline, but the sudden change in the market still touched their sensitive nerves.

"This should be a normal reaction for options bears to enter the market." Druckenmiller's voice rang out, and seeing that the eyes of the traders were focused on him, he nodded slightly, and explained nonchalantly: "They are the option executors in May, and they want to take advantage of the opportunity to enter the market to suppress the price, so that they can exit the market at the smallest price." ”

"And where is the price of their compromise?" One trader wasted no time in asking.

"Compromise price?" Druckenmiller was slightly stunned, then reacted and said with some amusement: "They don't have a compromise price!" For them, naturally, the lower the price, the better, and in this case, a copper price of $0 per ton is their compromise price! Lads, their compromise price is in your hands, understand? ”

Hearing him say this, these shrewd traders did not understand that it was time to beat the water dogs, and they immediately entered the battle mode and began to attack these new bears.

……

The same scene also happened in the London department of Sumitomo Trading, and even Yasuo Hamanaka, who had always worked in his office, came to the trading floor and issued one order after another to the many traders under him: "Resist me, and let the bears know that we are powerful!" "We must not let the price of copper futures fall below the bottom line of $2,200, which is the lowest price we can accept."

Sumitomo Corporation's traders were busy on the phone, directing the brokers to buy new short positions and long swaps in the market in an effort to stabilize the price above $2,200.

……

"And so it was!" Zhong Shi, who is also in the United States, saw this scene on the plate, and he still didn't understand what was going on, but at this time he was in a dilemma.

In his previous imagination, this was the first premeditated rally of the bulls, and it has to be said that his idea coincided with the people of the Quantum Fund. But now it seems that these pull-ups may be like a trap set for the option bears, as long as the option side admits defeat and exits the market on this day, it is likely that this pull-up will reach the limit.

It's just that whether it's a trap or a long-term rise, he can't see it for a while.

So at this time, for him, there are two strategies to choose from, the first is to help the bulls pull up, when the price reaches a certain height, the option bears will naturally admit defeat and leave. But there is a problem with this strategy, which is that in the future, his position will have a lot of price risk.

Another strategy is to take advantage of the bulls' desperate bottom protection, close positions on a large scale, and suppress the price together with the bears, but in this way, his floating profits will suffer huge losses, and some of the gains outweigh the losses.

He had completely forgotten that he was also a member of the main forces of the bulls, and even during this period of time, his influence was not weaker than that of several other main forces.

"What should I choose?" Zhong Shi fell into deep thought for a moment, and did not even hear Andrew's urging on the phone. Unconsciously, the price of the disk has reached 2,207 US dollars per ton, and the two sides have launched a large-scale battle at this price, but after maintaining it for five minutes, the price of copper futures has not broken through this limit.

"Andrew, what did you say?" Zhong Shi reacted from his contemplation and said into the phone with hindsight. In his contemplation, he vaguely felt that someone was calling him, but he didn't bother to answer, and only now did he react to Andrew's shout.

Andrew, who was waiting by the phone, finally heard the echo and couldn't help but breathe a sigh of relief. Hurriedly said: "Just now, the long and short sides engaged in a large-scale fight. According to the feedback from the trading software, the trading volume below $2,210 reached more than 10,000 lots, and the two sides were fighting frantically at almost every price......"

"What?" Zhong Shi reacted and hurriedly asked, "Are you saying that the two sides are competing for every price below $2,210." More than 10,000 lots in volume? ”

The volume is 10,000 lots. That's already a percentage of the average day's trading volume. But this is only the trading volume of less than an hour after the opening of today, so you know how fierce the battle between the long and short sides is.

"Yes......" Andrew replied with a quick nod.

Suddenly, a bold idea appeared in Zhong Shi's mind, since he didn't know the specific Jihua of the bulls. So what about Weishenme not letting the bulls themselves reveal their ultimate goal through a massive turnover of hands? It doesn't have to be done on this day, but it is necessary to make sure that the bears do not leave the market too early, otherwise there will be no one to play.

"Andrew, you open a new position immediately, the price is not too high, absorb more orders, you must absorb quietly and on a small scale, don't let other people in the market find out, it is best to carry out a few or dozens of hands." Zhong Shi, who reacted, hurriedly ordered.

...... Although Andrew wanted to ask Weishenme, he also knew that this was not the time to ask, so he hurriedly ordered the traders to do so.

"Brian, give me a long buy order, 500 lots, market order." In addition to Andrew, Brian's side also placed trading orders.

Soon, when the long and short sides were fiercely fighting, the 500 market order was almost useless. Soon, another 500 hands were traded again, and then the third and fourth 500 hands, and there were 2,000 hands of long orders.

Even if there are 2,000 lots of long transactions, the price of copper during this period has fallen below $2,200, after breaking through $2,200, the bears hit the copper futures to $2,175 in an instant, because the long defense of copper is mostly set at about $2,200, so after the defense of $2,200 is broken, the bears will unscrupulously suppress the price of copper.

After all, the shorts who can close their positions at $2175 are a minority, and they are extremely lucky investors, and the bulls who reacted quickly set up a defense again at the $2180 position, first eating all the short orders below $2180, and then recovering the lost ground step by step.

"It should be the main force of the bears just now!" Seeing a long red line drawn out of the software, Zhong Shi couldn't help but sigh. So far, the bulls have been fighting with the bears who entered the market with an option strike situation, and the main bears who have been active in the market have been secretly fueling the flames, while holding back, and finally gave them an opportunity to push the price to $2,175.

And the bulls are also remarkable, and before they can react, they will establish a good defense again, which reduces a large part of the financial pressure.

"Open 10,000 more hands!" Zhong Shi saw that the price was stable at $2,180, and suddenly yelled into the phone, shouting very excitedly to Brian, who was waiting on the other end of the phone.

"What?" Brian was stunned for a moment, and then reacted: "10,000 hands? Market Order? "He's already stammering, and he's shocked by the number of lots, and the margin alone is going to be hundreds of millions of dollars.

"So, what are you waiting for?" Bell Stone was very dissatisfied with Brian's sluggishness, he finally saw an opportunity, where would he easily let it miss?

"Yes!" Brian was shaken all over, reacted immediately, and quickly picked up the phone and began to match.

10,000 hands of buy order entry, soon pushed the price of copper to a new high, at this time the long and short double-headed is also a little exhausted, both sides in the previous big fight, funds are a little insufficient, it is a good time for Zhongshi to pull up the funds, the result is that the price of copper rose all the way, and soon broke through the 2190, 2200, 2210, 2220 US dollars and other prices, so that the market followed the reversal, the trend is desperate to keep up, for a time the buying is surging, the price can only rise vigorously.

When it reached $2,230, Zhong Shi's 10,000 hand order had been traded 7,850 hands, at this time he asked Brian to stop, and slowly closed the previously established long position, just as the trend was worried about not being able to buy the contract, they didn't realize that this was a close order to pull up the longs, and quickly ate this part of the long turnover position, and when Zhong Shi reduced the position to 3,000 hands, the price of copper was also pushed up to $2,255.

The next thing is not about Zhong Shi, he opened a new long order of 5,000 lots on this day, with an average price of about $2,140.

It didn't take long for the bulls to slow down, and the main bears and options bears seemed to be enraged, exerting their strength at the $2,255 position, at which time the bullish "main force" had become a follower, and these people were naturally vulnerable, and immediately began to abandon their positions after a slight resistance, and finally the price fell back to about $2,200.

The follow-up market is generally around $2220 to open a position, and some are even in a higher position, but where did you think that the main force of the bulls who pulled up here is simply to change positions, and where do they still have the heart to continue to pull up, they can only scold this bullish main force if they lose money, but who cares? (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you very much for the monthly pass support of my love and water! At the same time, thank you for the dragon war ghost、The reward that made me think about it!