Chapter 259: The undercurrent is turbulent
Zhong Shi and Druckenmiller closed the door, and what they talked about is impossible for outsiders to know. However, there are good people in the Tianyu Fund who deliberately paid attention to Druckenmiller's expression, this famous fund boss was arrogant when he came to visit, and his eyes were so overturned that he couldn't see people at all; And when he left, he was full of smiles, and he couldn't stop shaking hands with Zhong Shi, and everyone could see that he was in a very good mood, without the arrogance he had before he came.
On August 28, although international speculators frantically sold nearly 80 billion Hong Kong dollars of stocks in the market, Tianyu Fund made steady progress, and finally defeated the attack of speculators with its strong financial strength, and firmly fixed the Hang Seng Index at 7829.74 points on this day, only a slight decrease of 93.23 points from the previous day, a decline of only 1.18%.
Judging from the day's rise and fall, K-line charts and other indicators, today is undoubtedly a dull trading day. However, as long as you pay a little attention to the trading volume, the maximum number of pending orders in the intraday and the number of equal jù, investors will be surprised to find that this day's trading can be called the largest single buy and sell in the history of Hong Kong stocks, and the day with the largest trading volume in the whole day, which is by no means as calm as the disk table.
In any case, today's past represents the official end of the August futures contracts, as they will be settled in cash after today. Since the Hang Seng Index did not show a large decline, the Hong Kong stock market was temporarily saved, and hundreds of thousands of positions of international speculators who shorted the Hang Seng Index in August were completely planted. Someone has done preliminary statistics. According to the index at the close of today, the vast majority of these international speculators will have to pay at least HK$50,000 in cash for each sell order on hand, and a few may be more. For the entire short side, because the bulls forced their positions in August, the entire 200,000 lot sell positions were not sold, and in the end these positions will have to pay a price of more than 10 billion Hong Kong dollars.
In addition to being hit hard in the futures market, speculators have also been hit head-on in the Hong Kong dollar market, and of course their opponents here are indeed the Hong Kong government. Because there is a correlation between the two markets, and their losses in the stock index market. It also made all their efforts in the Hong Kong dollar market come to naught.
For speculators. They just played too big this time. In the past half a month, they have sold more than 200 billion Hong Kong dollars in cash in the Hong Kong dollar market, hoping to attack Hong Kong in an all-round way through guò, but now the result is that stealing chickens and rice is not a loss. The short-term interest left to them alone adds up to an astronomical amount. And that's just interest.
There are also losses on interest rate futures. Losses on bonds, blah blah, blah blah, etc., are estimated in a few clicks. Some analysts believe that this action has cost international speculators at least $5 billion, and may expand to $8 billion in the long term. Among them, the leading Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund are estimated to lose at least $1 billion combined.
Although no one knows the true number, the market is still excited to hear the news. However, in the eyes of professionals, this news is quite unimpressed, for a quantum fund with a fund management scale of up to 20 billion US dollars, a loss of 500 million US dollars will not shake its foundation at all.
It's just that for others, the meaning is very heavy. For most of the past six months, Soros and his Quantum Fund have been like victorious generals, rampant in the currency markets of East Asia, invincible and overwhelming everywhere he goes, and even the Russian government will be forced to announce the depreciation of the ruble as soon as he speaks. And now, Hong Kong has become the first and only place where he has failed. Of course, Indonesia does not count, because before Soros entered the market, the Indonesian government had already announced the depreciation of the rupiah.
Compared with the speculators, Hong Kong, the main battlefield, has suffered heavy losses. Since the international speculators attacked the Hong Kong market for the first time in September 97, this time the Hang Seng Index fell to a minimum of about 6,600 points, and the entire Hang Seng Index was cut by two-thirds. Although there are factors in the bursting of the bubble, it is more due to the lack of investors' confidence in Hong Kong and the Hong Kong dollar.
The index represents wealth in a certain way, and the loss of wealth causes a lot of problems. Many listed companies have been forced to lay off employees or cut salaries because of the decline in stock prices, and even more seriously, some companies have entered the ranks of penny stocks (junk stocks), and some have directly declared bankruptcy.
There is also a kind of company, such as HSBC Holdings, which cannot go bankrupt lightly, but has also suffered huge losses in this turmoil. Because they want to maintain their stock prices, many similar companies have announced share buyback plans, but although the cash has been invested, the price of their own shares has not improved at all, and even fallen more severely. Even if the buyback is completed, many companies do not expect the moment when the stock price will rise.
For ordinary salaried people, it is good to be able to keep their jobs in this year, and it is naturally impossible to have unrealistic ideas such as salary increases and promotions.
The collapse of the stock market was accompanied by the collapse of the real estate market. Of course, it may be a bit alarmist to say that the collapse may be a bit alarmist, but as a pillar industry in Hong Kong, the real estate industry, in this wave of the market is particularly unbearable, since the beginning of the year, since Changhe Industrial announced that its real estate price cut by half, Hong Kong's large real estate developers have begun to reduce the price of their real estate, on the one hand, in order to empty the stock, return funds, on the other hand, how not to resist the pressure from the stock market.
Due to the high price of housing, Hong Kong people generally use mortgage loans to buy homes, and the price of housing has plummeted by half or more, so that the value of their properties has shrunk greatly, and even the price of new properties is not as much as the need to repay the loan, in this case, stop paying the loan. There are many people who ask banks to repossess their houses, and this way of abandoning loans has, in turn, accelerated the decline of Hong Kong's real estate industry.
With the decline of the real estate industry, related industries will naturally be affected, and soon affect all aspects of the whole society. As a result, although the Chief Secretary set a growth rate of around 4.5% at the beginning of the year, it was soon forced to adjust to 2.1%, and now, it may be necessary to adjust the forecast for the next time.
Although the neon flickering outside the window, the lights of thousands of homes are shining. But behind these dazzling lights. But the economic downturn and people's growing anxiety are, of course, these are things that the Hong Kong government needs to address urgently.
"Will they come again?"
Although the speculators are disappointed this time, the professionals are well aware. The crisis is far from over. As long as the "BUG" of the linkage between Hong Kong stocks and the Hong Kong dollar market is still there. These greedy capitals will covet them, and they may come back at some point one day or another.
Seeing Zhong Shi looking out the window in a daze, Ma Jiarui sighed in his heart. The young man in front of him has achieved the unprecedented Cheng dù, but at this time he does not seem to be very proud, but in the eyebrows between his eyes, there is a faint sadness that has not dissipated, what is he thinking?
To be sure, even his most die-hard supporters were shocked when Chung Shek offered to bail out the city in place of the Hong Kong government. Although Zhong Shi photographed the plan as a dictator on the surface, Ma Jiarui also did a lot of work in private, which made many people change their concepts. Although he was very puzzled in his heart, Ma Jiarui still stood firmly on Zhongshi's side, and when it came to the moment of final victory, he couldn't believe that Tianyu Fund and himself had really defeated international speculators.
After the ecstasy, all that remained was deep worry, so Ma Jiarui asked Zhong Shi, who was also frowning.
For international speculators, especially for big players of the level of quantum funds, the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars is simply dispensable, not to mention whether they have hedged these positions, just say that the benefits they have made in the previous attacks on Hong Kong are enough to make up for this loss.
And if they do make a comeback, will the Tianyu Foundation be able to play the role of savior again?
The answer is obvious, it's impossible!
"Don't worry, they won't be coming back!"
Although Zhong Shi's words were very inexplicable, he did not give a convincing reason, just a simple conclusion, but it was enough to lift Ma Jiarui's spirits, "This time I set a trap for them, I believe that they will focus on infighting in the short term, and have no time to care about the changes in Hong Kong's market." ”
"These are still minutiae, and soon there will be a wave of greater changes in the international financial market, this time not only our Hong Kong government, but even other governments will also participate, and they have long tolerated the unscrupulous attack on other people's currencies by international speculators to the critical point, and they will definitely teach them a hard lesson."
If what was said just now lifted Ma Jiarui's spirits, then what he said now shocked Ma Jiarui, because according to common sense, these things cannot be accessed by Zhong Shi, and even the top level of the Hong Kong government cannot capture such a dynamic.
"How much money do we have in our account now?" Just when Ma Jiarui was still thinking nonsense, Zhong Shi turned his head and ordered with an unusually stern face, "No matter how much money there is, immediately buy me September yen call options and futures, buy as much as you want, I estimate that the Japanese government will have a big action in the near future, so we must be the first to start." ”
Due to the role of leverage, derivatives have become more and more popular among investors, and the trading volume of options is growing rapidly, and some people expect that in the near future, the trading volume of options in the market will exceed that of futures. Because for investors, the biggest loss of options is only the option premium, but the gain is unlimited.
"Yen? Bullish? ”
Ma Jiarui's heart froze, and he was about to say something, but when he saw Zhong Shi's clear eyes, he couldn't help but swallow what he wanted to say. During this time, the yen fell sharply, because of regional economic factors, the yen was significantly impacted, so many investors chose to short the yen, although he was busy with the Hong Kong market during this time, but still maintained enough attention to the Japanese economy.
However, at this time, Zhong Shi seems to have been sublimated into a god in the minds of everyone, even Ma Jiarui did not dare to dismiss his opinion, fortunately, there are not many funds on the books of the Tianyu Fund at present, and it is only 1 billion US dollars when it is full, so Ma Jiarui thought about it again and again, and finally dispelled the idea of persuasion.
"What the hell did you tell him?"
Walking to the door, Ma Jiarui suddenly stopped, scratched his head, and finally couldn't hold back the curiosity in his heart, and asked Xiang Zhongshi, "How can they fight among themselves?" That's so unexpected, isn't it? ”
"Actually, it's nothing, it's just a fact to sue him!" Zhong Shi knew very well who "he" was, and after smiling slightly, he waved his hand and signaled that Ma Jiarui could go. (To be continued......)
PS: Thank you book friends 130810233301087 and cpower for voting for the monthly pass! I'm sorry I didn't write it until late yesterday...... I'm sorry everyone...... The author will continue to work hard~ Thank you for your understanding and support!