Compared with the scale of funds under management of two or three hundred billion US dollars, a loss of 1.5 billion US dollars is nothing, and at most a loss of 5%. But for this year's Quantum Fund, this number is very significant.

Quantum Fund's performance in the first half of the year was 4.3%, which seems to be a poor return, but compared to most hedge funds and the S&P 500, it is already quite impressive. Because of the economic downturn, the deterioration of the environment, the sharp increase in systemic risks, and the frequent outbreak of black swan events, the entire market is in an extremely unstable state. In this case, the more daring and aggressive group of hedge funds has suffered.

Countless hedge funds have lost money, and many hedge funds have simply liquidated and disappeared completely. The performance of hedge funds is no longer measured by the traditional alpha value, but by who has fallen less than the S&P 500. In this case, the fact that the Quantum Fund was able to rise against the market has to be said to be a great achievement.

But Soros is very dissatisfied, very dissatisfied. Because this huge loss almost spit out all the profits he made from shorting the other three investment banks. In addition, the performance of other managers is very poor, so the quantum fund has reached a critical point, that is, whether there will be a breakthrough in the performance of the whole year of 08, and whether the final performance is positive or negative depends on the performance of the next three months.

The pressure on performance forced Soros to make a more extreme decision to bet heavily on the European market, and he soon tasted a huge loss again, which made the 08 year of the quantum fund a complete failure.

That's all for later. Let's not talk about it for now. Moreover, the market situation is so extreme, there are naturally huge losses, and there are many similar hedge funds. Although in this year John. Paulson did not replicate last year's myth. But the news of the massive $1 billion in the Kaminari Brothers bankruptcy case still circulated through various channels.

But these are all speculations, and the reality is that Paulson's involvement in the short-selling scheme with Soros has earned more than $1 billion in profits from Bear Stearns, Rehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch, not just the Rehman Brothers.

The outside world did not know the real situation inside the Paulson Fund, which led to false rumors that the Paulson Fund had made another $1 billion spree. But that's exactly what Paulson wants, because it allows him to attract more money.

It's just on Monday. Instead of showing up in his Manhattan office, Paulson went to Hong Kong, on the other side of the world. Here he was going to visit his Bole, Zhongshi.

"It's a bustling place!" Stand at the top of the International Financial Center. Paulson sighed as he looked out over the night view of Hong Kong Island and Kowloon Island, which is only one port away.

As the most prosperous area of Hong Kong, Victoria Harbour has always been a great place to watch the night view. There used to be good deeds. It is ranked as the top three night views in the world. It is enough to see how prosperous it is.

The tides fluctuate, reflecting the bright lights; The traffic is busy, showing the crowd of people. Standing at the very top of Hong Kong's landmarks, John Murphy. Paulson stared at it for a long time, his expression flickering with the neon lights, and then he sighed.

"What is the reason why you came here this time?" Zhong Shi felt something in his heart and asked lightly. "How's it going, what's going on with Soros lately?"

"I don't know." John. Paulson's face tightened. He replied respectfully, "I did as you told me to do and get out after the Kaminari brothers went bankrupt. However, according to the previous strategy, it is believed that Soros is still shorting Stanley and Goodman. It is estimated that Soros is in a hurry now! ”

After finishing speaking, he glanced at Zhong Shi deeply, and the two of them invariably showed a knowing smile.

Yes, Paulson is Bell Stone's biggest internal response to Soros's infiltration. Coincidentally, after Paulson's success, Soros approached him. It's just that Soros was far from expecting that Paulson's fortune was inextricably linked with Zhongshi, and the personal relationship between the two reached an unusually intimate level.

This time it was completely Soros in the light, and the bell stone was hidden in the darkness. And this secret, I'm afraid Soros will never know.

"That's right!" A hint of ruthlessness and fierceness flashed in Zhong Shi's eyes, "If he continues to choose to go against me, I don't mind continuing to dig a hole for him." ”

The grievances in the financial circle are not like other grievances that will fight to the death. But liquidation like a non-withering fund is basically no different from taking the life of a fund manager. Of course, a figure like Soros, who has been famous for a long time, is basically unbeatable, unless Zhongshi can control the global market, but it is clear that this is not realistic.

Therefore, Zhongshi can only stumble and dig a pit for Soros, but he can't "beat the other party to death".

Paulson was amusementingly unfurled. He knew that with his current self, he was far from being able to compare with these two people. He was still a little glad in his heart that he wisely chose Zhongshi's side in the secret war of the fund boss, otherwise I am afraid that Soros's fate will be his fate. Soros can afford to lose so much money, but Paulson may not be able to afford it.

Paulson could not have imagined that two years later, he would once again burst with an astonishing burst of energy that would dazzle the whole world. Since then, Wall Street has worshiped him, and he has completely replaced Soros and become a veritable "god of making money" on Wall Street.

"Tell me, what's the matter with coming to me this time?" After a little demonstration, Zhong Shi did not continue to dwell on this topic, and asked about John again. Paulson's intention, "Let me guess, have you been confused lately?" ”

"That's true!" Paulson frowned and said, "In my opinion, after the U.S. government rolls out the bailout, the whole market turmoil may end here." Although there will be more companies in trouble in the future, the overall economic situation has stabilized. But the aftermath of the subprime mortgage crisis will not just subside, according to my judgment. For at least the next three to five years, the economy of the global market will be in trouble, and there is no hope for a revival in the short term. ”

That is to say. Including emerging markets, economic growth in the past few years will not be satisfactory. In order to stimulate rapid economic growth, governments around the world will reduce the cost of capital and stimulate the economy by injecting large amounts of liquidity into the market. Worse still, it lowers long-term interest rates to create a liquidity trap that allows capital to flow into the productive sector. ”

"The scale of QE will be further expanded, and inflation will not be the first condition for governments to consider. In this case. Paper money will depreciate faster than you can imagine, and although there will be no hyperinflation, the psychological lower limit of inflation will be further widened by governments. Inflation is accompanied by rising prices. Shrinking wealth. This will happen not only in China, but also in the United States, where the dollar is very likely to improve imports and exports by devaluation and stimulate the export of domestic goods as soon as possible. ”

"Once the dollar as an international currency depreciates. The effect will be that other major currencies will also depreciate. There will be no currency wars. But price increases will inevitably occur in all countries, at least in the major economies. In the context of the economic downturn, shrinking demand, and rising prices, there are not many ways to maintain or even increase the value of investment. ”

Zhong Shi listened quietly, carefully analyzing the logic behind this passage. His eyes lit up when he heard the last, "You want to tell me." Will gold be your next investment focus? ”

"Yes, it's gold!" Paulson responded excitedly. "That's true, Mr. Zhong, you are indeed too powerful."

"No, it's you!"

Zhong Shi looked at Paulson and said lightly, but there were turbulent waves in his heart, this guy is really powerful, he is simply a macroeconomic genius, "Historically, the trend of gold has always shown a negative correlation with the US dollar. As a former currency and precious metal, the value of gold goes without saying. Although money is now inclined to move to Europe to avoid risk, how can Europe, the global economic union, avoid this crisis. Moreover, for some security countries, the influx of excessive funds has raised the value of their currencies, affected exports, and may force them to defend their currencies, and in the end, the cost of exchanging currency is greater than the cost of hedging, and the gains outweigh the losses. ”

"In this case, precious metals that can hold their value become the first choice for these funds. It is foreseeable that in two or three years, the price of gold will inevitably rise, which is indeed a very good way to invest predictably. Not only gold, but also precious metals such as silver and platinum will rise in varying degrees. ”

Paulson didn't speak, and his heart was equally unsettled. At first, he only roughly analyzed the macroeconomic situation, but he didn't expect Zhong Shi to grasp the key point at once and continue to follow his words. Although it didn't quite agree with what he had in mind, it was basically the same.

Thinking of this, Paulson took the opportunity to say what he meant, "That's right, Mr. Chung. Now that the commodity market has seen a gradual downward trend in prices, I have also taken some short positions. But now there is a problem, because of the fall in correlation, there has been a sharp drop in the price of oil, which has contributed to the rise of gold to a certain extent. However, the current situation is that the hedging effect of precious metals is far from being reflected, and for funds, waiting and watching in the market or even shorting is the main way to invest. Most importantly, the price of gold is currently under great pressure due to the decline in demand and the continuous growth of gold output, which also means that the true value of gold will not be reflected for some time to come, that is, until countries issue currencies indiscriminately. ”

"I think I see what you mean!" Zhong Shi smiled and waved his hand, "Are you worried that price fluctuations will affect my judgment and withdraw funds?" You can rest assured that your argument has succeeded in convincing me today. I don't think I'll be able to withdraw my investment in Paulson for years to come, unless there are major problems on my side. I was relieved that when I chose you, I thought you would bring me considerable profits. Now prove that I am not wrong, and I believe that you will not let me down. ”

"I won't let you down!"

In front of Bell Stone, Paulson was as excited as a schoolboy. With Zhongshi's assurance, he can make a big move, "By the way, I also recently realized that there is a focus in the market, in Europe. He seemed to suddenly remember something, and said quickly.

"Europe?" Zhong Shi tilted his head and thought for a while, and said coldly, "You can't be talking about Porsche's acquisition of Volkswagen, right?" ”

"That's it!" Paulson was startled, then came to his senses and forced a smile, "I'm sorry, Mr. Zhong, but I'm too out of shape." I didn't expect that Mr. Zhong had already paid attention to the Porsche acquisition. ”

Zhong Shi smiled and said, "Who wouldn't pay attention to such a big case." But John, Paulson Fund is not going to be involved in this deal. Now I won't explain, but soon you'll understand what the whole thing is all about. ”

"What the hell is going on?"

Until Paulson got on the plane back to New York, he didn't understand what that would all about. However, he honestly listened to Zhong Shi's advice and did not invest a penny in the Porsche acquisition.

It turns out that listening to Zhongshi can never be wrong. (To be continued......)