144 look for the same price action
But with his sensitivity to numbers and a strong memory of historical stock movements, he can deduce the recent trend of stocks.
Of course there is talent, but is it enough to rely on talent alone?
What's more, through long-term price copying training, Livermore has formed his own set of methods for looking at the market, and recorded his judgment in the notebook, in addition to judging the next trend, more importantly, through the actual market performance after the comparison, to verify whether he is correct, and he insisted on 6 months!
Use your mind to prove yourself right!
"It's shallow on paper, and I never know that I have to do it!"
"Yuan Yi, what you just said is the review method, through the thumbnail to get a sense of the plate, but how to observe the historical performance of the stock, you can predict the future rise and fall of the stock?"
Lin Danqing looked at Zhang Yuanyi's thought of origin and asked coldly.
Zhang Yuanyi didn't expect Lin Danqing to throw out another question, didn't he say class?
What about the class that was said to be good? Zhang Yuanyi's face was black.
How did you become yourself answering questions, what is the situation?
Shouldn't you ask Lin Danqing yourself? I also listed this question last night, and I am going to ask it today.
But since Lin Danqing asked, Zhang Yuanyi had no choice but to bite the bullet and say his understanding:
"Master, in fact, I have prepared this question for you. How can you predict the future by looking at history? ”
"Since the master asked, I'll tell you my understanding."
Lin Danqing smiled encouragingly.
Zhang Yuanyi continued: "Livermore said in his memoirs that his method of solving the market is to write down the desired number, study the changes in it, and always look for repeated and identical price behavior, looking for stock prices that fluctuate according to a certain pattern, because he noticed that stock prices usually show certain habits before they rise and fall, and say that past precedents become his guide. ”
"Looking for duplicate and identical price action" Lin Danqing nodded frequently after listening to Zhang Yuanyi's answer.
I thought to myself, this kid really read the book, and few people summarize some of the essence scattered in the book to understand it, but Zhang Yuanyi can!
He smiled and said, "Yes, that's true, we are always looking for a similar model when we do stocks."
"Master, it's understandable to look for past repetitions and the same price behavior, but are these precedents constant?" Zhang Yuanyi asked rhetorically.
Hearing Zhang Yuanyi ask, Lin Danqing glanced at Lin Shuang'er next to him, and then said:
"You're right, is there no change in precedent? Obviously, the only constant in this market is change. ”
Lin Danqing took another sip of water and said, "However, Livermore also said that 'there is nothing new on Wall Street'!" The reason why there is nothing new on Wall Street is because he thinks that speculation is as old as a mountain, and what happens today in the stock market has happened before and will happen again in the future! ”
"Why is this happening?" Zhang Yuanyi was a little puzzled.
"Why is this so, in my understanding, is that although many things have changed since ancient times, the greed, hatred, and suspicion in human nature have basically not changed, so in similar situations, people will have similar psychological reactions, and thus adopt similar behaviors!"
"So, Livermore, as I understand it, is trading with his own premonition memory and intuition of stocks before they rise and fall in history, and this method is unique, and it may only work for him, not for others!"
"Master, you mean it's hard to explain Livermore's method?"
"Yes, it's hard to tell. And I don't think his approach is fixed."
"Didn't you just say that you can look for precedents, but then question that precedents will change? We Chinese often say that 'soldiers are impermanent, water is impermanent', and technical graphics are often changing, and once a money-making graphic is discovered by others, or even if there are good people who summarize it and write it into a book to rise to the theoretical level, it is when this kind of graphics and methods fail. ”
"Why?" Zhang Yuanyi didn't understand much, so he asked rhetorically.
"Why?" Lin Danqing went on to explain: "When cheats become fashionable, you don't make money. ”
"No matter how good a method is, once there are more people who know about it and more people apply it, do you expect it to bring you huge profits? The marginal effect will diminish, and it will even become a trap! ”
"So in the stock market, most of them are destined to lose money, and a few people make money. In the stock market, what most people agree with often leads to failure, so the successful people in the stock market place a special emphasis on contrarian thinking. ”
"Master, are you saying that most of the methods that are recognized in this market will definitely fail?"
"Logically speaking, it is true, whether it is the stock market or futures, it is destined to be a market where a few people beat the majority, so whether it is technical analysis or fundamental analysis, these fixed things, once they are really in the transaction, there is a high probability of failure."
"You look at some books in the bookstore that write about stock trading, especially technical books, what is gold, is silver, what short-term cheats, handicap books, can people make money? Hard! Most of them aren't worth a look. ”
Zhang Yuan understood when he heard it, this is like doing business, knowing that doing this business to make money, when it just started, there were few people doing it, and it was easy to make money when there were few people, but there were more people doing the same business, and they all knew how to do it, but it was difficult to make money.
For everyone involved in this market, only by finding a unique solution that is only suitable for them in the stock market can they succeed in the stock market!
Well, that's true.
But Zhang Yuanyi immediately remembered another question, turned to Lin Danqing and asked, "Master, since the model is changing, how can we continue to make money?" By luck? ”
"Of course you can't rely on luck!" Lin Danqing smiled and continued: "The game in the stock market is about probability, and the practitioners in the stock market are pursuing big profits and small losses, in this market, no one can guarantee that they can trade 100 times, and these 100 times can be done right, which is basically impossible." What to do? Rely on your own experience to increase your probability of being right"
"But most people in this market lose money."
"That's true, because of the lack of experience, the game in the stock market is difficult for most people! But it's because it's difficult, it's interesting, isn't it? ”
Zhang Yuanyi thought about it and nodded, isn't it? Despite the low barrier to entry into the stock market, the game is really interesting and attracts so many people to follow suit, but because the game is really difficult, most people end up losing money.
"So if you want to survive in this market, you have to be diligent, you have to work hard. It's not easy to make money here," Lin Danqing laughed again, "Do you think even a genius speculator like Livermore will eventually die of a bullet?" ”
"So, to survive in this market, you must find your own tricks!"
"Master, do you mean that one trick is fresh and eaten all over the world?"
"Right!"
"Then how can you form your own tricks?"
"You have to go through constant review and form your own sense of consciousness after the realization"
"Just like the oil seller, why does the oil leak without leaking? The oil seller replied: 'Without him, only the hand is familiar!' The oil seller relies on the feeling after the hand is cooked. In the stock market, we can only become evergreen in the stock market if we form our sense of disk! ”
Without him, only the hand is familiar! But only diligence will be familiar!
Zhang Yuanyi listened very carefully, if you want to continue to make profits in the market, you must rely on the review to form your own unique sense of disk, and only in this way can you form your own judgment and seize the opportunity.
But the premise of all this lies in diligence and hard work.