Chapter 199: Don't Follow the Trend
Everyone glanced at Lan Xin helplessly, and did not speak again, and Li Xiao had long been accustomed to Lan Xin's appearance, after all, she was a loyal chart trender, and the fundamentals were too distant and unfamiliar to her, and only technical analysis could satisfy her fantasy of trading.
Zhao Liutian's expression was a little weird, he looked at Lan Xin: "It is easiest to lose money in following the trend trading, even if two people buy at the same time, but two people have completely different views on a stock, for example, I can still hold the stock firmly when the stock price falls by 20%, but you are likely to see the stock fall by 3% and stop loss and clear the position, this is not about the transaction itself, but about your own mentality in the transaction." ”
"Woo, Brother Zhao, are you rejecting me?" Lan Xin pretended to look at Zhao Liutian with a pitiful expression.
"This ......," Zhao Liutian smiled bitterly, "Okay, I'll let you know what I bought then, but don't blame me if you lose money." ”
"It seems that Lanxin is going to lose money again because of short-term fluctuations." Xin Yuting said on the side.
"Big sister!" Lan Xin said dissatisfiedly, "You can't say a little good thing, you can't say that I make money because of short-term fluctuations?" ”
Xin Yuting shrugged indifferently and said: "At least I have been losing money when I saw your position with Lin Shi, and now when the stock price is rising, it is an afterthought, and now you have to take a position with Zhao Liutian, who knows what will happen later?" ”
"Xin Yuting is right." Li Xiao said with a smile on the side, "Lan Xin, you are no different from retail investors in the capital market now, what others say is good, you will buy what others say, and what others do to make money, you will do it, completely ignoring the motives and unknowable factors behind it." ”
Lin Shi nodded noncommittally: "Trading this matter, it is better to be your own nobleman, even if you can follow other people's positions to make money, but you can't guarantee that other people's positions are profitable every time, everyone is a human being, not a god, there will be times when you make mistakes, no matter how much money you make in following the trend, as long as you fall, the profits will all fly away." ”
"That's a brilliant statement." Zhao Liutian said with a smile, and then he turned to Lan Xin: "I don't mind if you have a position with me, but as Lin Shi said, it is better to be your own noble person in the transaction, and I also have times when I make mistakes, I can quickly clear the position when I make a mistake, but there are some things that you can not see clearly behind me, the capital market is changing rapidly, maybe I caught that second to clear the position, but you did not clear the position, and the result is likely to be that you are trapped." ”
"Alright!" Lan Xin said helplessly, "I know all the shortcomings of following the trend, I lost money when I was with Lin Shi's stock, didn't I say anything about Lin Shi?" It's best to make money, and I won't blame you if you can't. ”
Zhao Liutian and Lin Shi glanced at each other, and both saw the helplessness in each other's eyes, it seems that what they just said to Lan Xin is as if they didn't say it, Lan Xin still means to follow Zhao Liutian's position, maybe she can earn a lot of profits in the future, but she can never become a trading master, at best, she can only make a living in the trading industry, and once the situation is not right, all the positions she holds will plummet, and she can't recognize what happened.
After a period of independent trading for a long time, the hospital will develop a sense of sensitivity to the market, but this is not for everyone to develop, some people are born to do short-term trading material, even if many people have gone bankrupt, and still adhere to this method, only a very small number of people will succeed, as a trading god said: short-term trading 100 times out of 49 times to lose money, 51 times to make money, and traders are living on the last money-making transaction.
However, Lin Shi does not understand it this way, if he knows that this method has caused most people to jump off the building or lose money, then he should not use such a method again, everyone's perception is different, and the things they learn are also different, for example, people who are not talented learn value investment, they think that as long as they buy stocks whose performance has increased for several years.
But they ignore one point, the stock price of stocks that have grown for several years in a row has already been speculated by various institutions, and at this time, don't you buy it to take over? But value investing focuses on such stocks, so what to do? Of course, it's to join the optional and wait for it to plummet.
Every stock that has the potential to become a super bull stock, without a 30% retracement can not be called a bull stock, if you don't believe it, you can pull out the K-line of some bull stocks, there is no line to the ceiling of the K-line, generally three red and two green, or three red and one green, after the rise must be a pullback, from the K-line, many retail investors will feel that this is nothing, after all, they do not hold shares, if they put them into the K-line trend of the pullback, what they do will only be one - clearance and stop loss.
Value investing is anti-human, when others flee, you enter the market to get bloody chips, and when others are attracted to the stock again, you smile and return their bloody chips to them, media institutions are optimistic about stocks are generally "junk stocks", not that stocks are very rubbish, but they have their own "garbage" attributes in the capital market, 90% of the time, you and them do counterparties, you will definitely win, in addition to large funds, fast sources of information, And there are a few fund managers who have graduated from prestigious foreign universities, but there are not many advantages in addition to this.
And these fund managers, the more advanced ones look at fundamental analysis, mainly fundamental analysis, the intermediate ones build a money-making model similar to the market, and the lower ones advocate technical analysis and constantly inquire about inside information.
Their education is that the market is regular, as long as a sufficiently accurate model is designed, they can make crazy money in the capital market, they will spend a lot of money to build this model, and use the money of investors to "experiment", if you make money, everyone makes money, if you lose money, then there is no follow-up. Long-term capital companies rely on models to make money, are Nobel economists powerful? Is it good to outperform the Dow Jones market for several years in a row? In the end, it went out of business.
Just when Lin Shi was thinking about this question carefully, Zhao Liutian whispered beside him: "When the time comes, if you go outside to speculate in stocks, what kind of stocks are you going to make, I feel that the current stock market is becoming more and more difficult to do, either rely on inside information to buy and wait for the skyrocket, or buy theme stocks, the high valuation of white horse stocks is enough to scare some value investors who are afraid of heights to death." ”
"The state is vigorously supporting white horse stocks, are you sure that white horse stocks are not a business opportunity?" Lin Shi said with a smile, in fact, he and Zhao Liutian have similar ideas, these years they either go to catch theme stocks, and other white horse stocks are simply to deceive retail investors, and the media says that the value investment boom in the news is to attract retail investors, and finally it is the harvest of institutions.
"Huh." Zhao Liutian chuckled, "What good policies can a group of managers who don't speculate in stocks formulate for the capital market?" At the beginning, it was to copy the foreign T+0 trading system, and then because the stock price soared and plummeted, the system was canceled, and then it was said that it was necessary to build a capital market with the characteristics of Huaxia, and finally it was indeed with the characteristics of Huaxia - it soared once in about ten years, harvested the people's deposits once in about ten years, and organized brainless retail investors to line up and jump off the building once in ten years. ”
"There's no use complaining." Lin Shi said with a wry smile, "As long as you are still trading in this market for a day, then all you can do is adapt to the market, no matter how much you want, it is useless, the development of each market has certain mistakes, but in the end it will definitely improve." ”
Zhao Liutian shook his head and said: "When will the boss's hands be idle, when will it be a real market economy, while artificially controlled, using policies to push up and suppress the stock market, while shouting to keep up with the capital markets of developed countries, isn't it funny?" If you go outside to watch the news, you will know how many problems there are in the Chinese stock market. ”
"This kind of long-term problem is not something that small traders like us can control." Lin Shi said, "What we have to do is to see the situation clearly, and then adapt to the situation to make money, unless you go to politics, otherwise it is difficult for you to change the situation, and the accumulation of problems is definitely not a day or two, it is difficult to change this problem alone." ”
"Well, you have a point, it's true that I'm thinking too much." Zhao Liutian smiled helplessly, "Do you have any self-selected stocks to buy in March next year?" The kind you're particularly optimistic about? ”
"Actually, I really haven't found any better stocks, maybe there will be a big drop at the end of the year." Lin Shi said.
"Big brother!" Xin Yuting looked at Lin Shi dissatisfiedly, "Please don't say that it will fall at the end of the year, I still hold a position, if it falls, then I won't lose to death?" ”
"Uh......" Lin Shi was a little helpless, "I just expressed my opinion, I didn't say that the stock market will definitely fall." ”
"Please publish it in your heart." Li Xiao said expressionlessly on the side, "Every time you are not optimistic about every stock, and then the stock will fall not long after, and now you are bearish on the market, do you want our year-end bonus to be deducted?" ”
Zhao Liutian held back a smile on the side and said, "It seems that you have the potential to be a god stick, look at something, and then fall for anything." ”
Lin Shi's face was full of black lines: "I haven't been short on stocks a few times at all, and some of them are not as accurate as they say, everything is just a coincidence." ”
"Lin Shi was bearish on a machinery industry stock last time, and then the stock fell 23% in two weeks." Lan Xin complained to Zhao Liutian.
Zhao Xiaojun was stunned for a moment when he heard this, and then immediately said to Lin Shi: "Is there really such a thing?" It seems that you can make a lot of money by becoming a stock recommender in the future, and whoever doesn't buy your product will be short on whose stock until they are convinced. ”