Chapter 107: Mr. Hammer's Concerns
On the Sumitomo Motors side, when the final copper price was fixed at $2,748, even Yasuo Hamanaka couldn't see the current situation clearly.
"Everyone, let's talk about it, what does this bull that is pulling up in the market mean?" Although Sumitomo Trading Co., Ltd. holds a total of about 30,000 long positions and has made a lot of money in this rising market, Yasuo Hamanaka does not like this feeling of losing control, especially when various bulls are frequently pulling.
A long position of 30,000 lots cost more than $300 million. In addition, Sumitomo Corporation has to prepare 200 million to 300 million US dollars for backup purposes, and they often have about 500 million US dollars in their accounts, and they are always ready to follow up.
Kenjiro Oshima was the first to speak: "According to my recent analysis, it is very likely that this bull is preparing to leave the market, after all, their previous trading jihua has been realized. Now the rise in the price of copper in the market is an illusion created by them, because they need volume to close their positions. I think that when their positions are almost out, that's when the price of copper falls. Judging by the recent transactions, they have been able to sell all the contracts in the last two days. ”
It has to be said that Kenjiro Oshima's analysis is very accurate and appropriately grasps the psychology of this bull. After he finished speaking, he looked at Yasuo Hamanaka, his eyes seemed to be asking for his opinion, and it seemed like he was asking for credit.
"I don't think so. At present, the support for copper prices is still strong, although the current price seems to be a bit high, but I personally believe that there is still room for copper prices to rise, after all, the United States, Europe demand for spot copper continues to increase. In addition to this, the growth of the Shijie economy shows no signs of slowing down. With the exception of the current Chilean copper industry, the other nine of the world's largest copper exporters have seen varying degrees of profit growth, and they recently said they would increase the amount of mining and exports in the fourth quarter. Personally, I think this is another sign of an upward trend in copper prices, which are highly likely to rise to $3,000 per tonne by the end of Q4, based on my analysis. As soon as Kenjiro Oshima's voice fell, an inappropriate voice suddenly sounded, and Kenjiro Oshima couldn't help but be a little annoyed. Rather dissatisfied, he looked at the person who spoke. Finding out that it was Yasuo Ryusuke, one of the ace analysts of the copper department, and seeing that it was him, Kenjiro Oshima could only swallow the rebuttal alive.
See Kenjiro Oshima does not speak. Ryusuke Yasuo glanced at him triumphantly. Then he sat down slowly.
As the host of the meeting, Yasuo Hamanaka didn't seem to see the two of them fighting openly and secretly. Frowning and thinking about it, he turned his head and asked Kenjiro Oshima: "Oshima-san, according to your judgment." How many positions are held by this part of the bulls, and how will the situation in Chile develop? ”
Seeing that Yasuo Hamanaka was inclined to himself, Kenjiro Oshima was happy in his heart, and said unhurriedly: "According to the news I have gotten, this bull has gradually lost about 30,000 long positions in the market, and there should still be about 12,000 long positions, and the position of the position should be around 2,700 US dollars." It is believed that when they have exhausted this part of their positions, it will be announced that the Chilean side and the capital have reached an agreement. At that time, they will either enter the market again to short, or leave the market directly, both are possible, this is not possible for the time being. ”
"More than 30,000 lots?" Yasuo Hamanaka's pupils shrank suddenly, and then a glittering heat was projected from his eyes, "If we can keep this part of the bulls in the field, then we can further push up the price of copper." ”
At this time, he is not thinking about the fundamentals that support copper prices, but that such a bull can join forces with him to go long and jointly push copper prices to a new high, which has to be said to be really daring.
You know, in addition to him, there are a lot of predators in the copper futures market, not to mention anything else, just say that several metal companies in Europe have accumulated a large number of short positions in the copper futures market all year round, and these metal companies themselves have a large demand for copper, and shorting is not purely for hedging, and the best of them can even compete with Hamanaka Tainan.
"What else is there in the market?" After Yasuo Hamanaka was alone for a while, he suddenly felt that something was wrong, and the office was too quiet, so he couldn't help but put away his thoughts and asked calmly.
Kenjiro Oshima is the most perceptive, and as soon as he saw the appearance of Yasuo Hamanaka, he immediately knew that this top boss was changing the topic, so he immediately stood up and said quite impassionedly: "Hamanaka-san, although the bulls are currently reducing their holdings, I also found that there are other bulls who are constantly eating, and the number is not small, almost comparable to the bulls who have reduced their holdings!" ”
"Oh?" Yasuo Hamanaka was very satisfied with his witty reaction, and he didn't take Kenjiro Oshima's words seriously, and asked casually, "Do you know who it is?" ”
"It's not clear yet, and the broker can't find out any information. However, the recent increase in copper inventories announced by the LME may be the work of this bulls, and most importantly, the inventories are coming from warehouses in London. ”
Due to the LME's global influence in the non-ferrous metals market, the LME has established warehouses all over the world, namely in Europe, Asia, the Americas and other places. The LME announces the status of these inventories to the market on a daily basis.
Hearing that the inventory had changed, Hamanaka Yasuo finally came to his senses, and then his face changed, and now that the inventory of copper has increased, the meaning that can be reflected is a little complicated. There is no doubt that the bears are ready to take delivery, and this situation is undoubtedly exerting strong pressure on the bulls.
Except for a small number of hedging accounts, not many of those who enter the copper futures market are sincerely prepared for physical delivery. Now that the bears are bringing in the copper and clearly indicating that they will be delivered, how can this not make the bulls feel panicked?
The design of the futures contract of LME non-ferrous metals is different from the futures contract of most futures exchanges on shijie, where the copper 3 contract refers to the three-month duration of each copper futures contract, which can be opened or sold on any trading day, for example, on November 11, you sell a new copper futures contract, and the delivery time of this contract is on February 11 (if it is a trading day). Most of the November and December contracts in the market are opened in September, October, November, etc. Among them, the September contract has the worst liquidity, and the October contract has the best liquidity.
"How much?" Yasuo Hamanaka's face changed, he sat up straight, and asked with a stern expression.
Kenjiro Oshima turned his head unnaturally, avoiding Yasuo Hamanaka's questioning gaze, and said with some humility: "According to our statistics, it has increased by about 20,000 tons recently, which is not a very large amount. "20,000 tons, that is, less than the required amount of 1,000 copper futures contracts, is for Sumitomo Trading, which has a position of tens of thousands of lots. It's nothing at all. Kenjiro Oshima didn't report it in time, and as a result, he made a negligent remark, and naturally he was a little afraid of Yasuo Hamanaka's reproach.
"20,000 tons? It's not too big, indeed. Yasuo Hamanaka breathed a sigh of relief, and couldn't help but be a little secretly amused. I was too much of a fuss. All of them are caused by the recent fluctuations in copper prices. Let the giants in the copper market at this time have some cups and snakes. Thinking of this, he couldn't help but be a little dissatisfied, and his gaze at Kenjiro Oshima was also a little unkind.
According to his intelligence. A number of hedge funds from the United States have also entered the market, including the well-known Quantum Fund and the Tiger Fund, which almost crushed France. Compared to these hedge funds, Sumitomo Corporation's funds in London are not enough for them, which is what worries Yasuo Hamanaka during this time.
Although the fundamentals show that the price of copper futures is unlikely to fall in the short term, it is a futures market after all, and any situation can happen.
Therefore, even if he is as strong as Yasuo Hamanaka, he has deliberately reduced his position during this time, you must know that in normal times, he has a position that accounts for as much as a quarter of the open interest in the entire market, and now it is only 30,000 lots, which is already a small size.
"In addition, according to my intelligence, the bulls that are now closing positions in the market are likely to be quantum funds from the United States." Seeing that he had caused trouble, the most important thing now was to remedy it in time, Kenjiro Oshima rolled his eyes, and then said something that surprised everyone present.
"How is this possible?" Yasuo Hamanaka's first reaction was not to believe it, knowing that the number of positions, operation strategies and other things are absolutely highly confidential, and even the exchange does not know the specific holder of the longs, let alone Kenjiro Oshima.
However, this market is not airtight, there will always be such and such rumors, even if Yasuo Hamanaka has repeatedly ordered his traders not to disclose their positions, but he can not influence the broker, so the market has spread the title of "Mr. Five".
Seeing that Yasuo Hamanaka did not get similar information, Kenjiro Oshima couldn't help but be a little secretly glad, and after a smug look flashed on his face, he said with a serious face: "I have some friendship with brokers in the United States, and some time ago, a broker privately revealed to me that the news of the Chilean copper strike some time ago was that the Quantum Fund was operating, and they also made huge profits. However, now that they have begun to withdraw from the copper futures market, it is believed that it is for this reason that brokers dare to speak out the news. ”
"If that's the case, it's really possible, and it means that this wave of market is coming to an end." Ryusuke Yasuo touched his smooth chin and said to himself a little. Then he turned to Yasuo Hamanaka and couldn't help but ask worriedly: "Hamanaka-san, if that's the case, then should we reduce our positions in a timely manner to avoid losses?" ”
In this case, it is a wise choice to reduce the position, but how can Yasuo Hamanaka be a person who can be persuaded casually, so he has less than half of his concerns, and naturally he will not do such a self-binding thing as reducing his position. I saw him stand up suddenly, and said proudly: "We don't operate in the market, this market is about to forget me." Not only are we not going to shrink our positions, we are constantly increasing them, so let these guys know that we are awesome! ”
Many traders looked at Yasuo Hamanaka, who suddenly lost his temper, and they were stunned for a while. (To be continued......)
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