On Tuesday, May 19, the market returned to around 4,200 points after a period of falling shocks. Pen × fun × Pavilion www. ｂｉｑｕｇｅ。 infoIn the face of the continuous economic downturn and the continuous decline of growth data, the stock market continues to rise, which has completely become a contrarian indicator of economic development.

There is another seemingly reasonable explanation for this kind of aggressiveness: the logic of the start of the market lies in the improvement of policy expectations caused by the economic downturn, and the unexpected downturn in the economy in the first four months has made the policy of stable growth exceed market expectations, and there will be continuous good news in the future, which is the basis for the current stock market rise, and the bull market will continue to be in this expectation.

At first glance, there is nothing wrong with this logic. But if you think about it a little, you can see that there is a lot of uncertainty. This is because even if the policy of stable growth is forcefully introduced, there is no guarantee that the economy will grow again, and the most important thing is that the current policy tends to stabilize economic growth, rather than stimulate economic growth, that is, stabilize at the current rate of economic growth, rather than accelerate the rate of economic growth.

Assuming that these policies are fully effective, the best outcome is that the economy grows at its current pace, and the stock market will be reflected in an equally smooth exponential growth. At present, the momentum of the growth of the stock market index is not at all like this, but a picture of a great acceleration of national economic growth.

This is where the logical error lies, but in the current situation, whether it is the main board or the gem, there is no logic to talk about, as long as there is relevant news, whether it is good or bad, the stock price will rise vigorously.

The day's news was mainly focused on medical reform, interest rate liberalization, stock registration system, improvement of the exchange rate market, and railway construction. Although the recent market turnover is only about 300 billion due to the reduction of leverage and the slowdown in the growth of the number of new shareholders, these news still drove the broader market higher, although a batch of new shares listed yesterday froze some funds.

On the same day, Gutian rose from 4285 points to 4419 points, an increase of 134 points compared to yesterday's close, an increase of 3.13%, and after two weeks of continuous slump, the capital market once again sounded the slogan of the rise.

On the 20th and 21st, the stock market once again broke out of the two positive lines and stood firmly above 4,500 points.

On the 22nd, the stock market rose more than 100 points in a single day again, breaking through 4,600 points. On the 25th, it rose by more than 150 points and stood directly at 4800 points. On the 26th, it rose by 97 points and successfully broke through the 4,900-point mark, which is only a line away from 5,000 points.

Although it only rose by 30 points on the 27th, it successfully broke through 4950 points during the session and at the close.

Everything looks so good, the 5,000-point mark is within reach, and the Chinese stock market will usher in a new beginning.

As the saying goes, good things are grinding, just when the stock market was still a glimmer away from the historical moment, the unexpected happened, and on the 28th, the stock market ushered in a major setback, and the plunge appeared in advance.

At the opening of the stock market that day, the stock index was 4943 points, and the stock market trend continued to rise before 10 o'clock, once as high as 4986 points, just when people thought that the historic moment of breaking through 5000 points had arrived, the situation changed. At around 10:30, there were large selling orders in the heavyweights, and the price began to stagnate and have a downward trend, which made it impossible for the entire index to continue to rise.

Soon, what happened to the heavyweight stocks was infected to the theme stocks that have been very popular recently, perhaps for safety reasons, or because of the profits of the previous few days that made them satisfied. This large-scale sell-off undoubtedly poured cold water on the heads of fanatical stockholders, making them calm down a lot at this moment.

Some people are waiting, but many more are participating in this sell-off, and the herd effect is starting to spread. The strange thing is that many people panic just when they see a large sell order, and they can't wait to sell the stocks in their hands. And as this sell-off progressed, more and more people joined in, completely unsure of what it was for.

It must be emphasized here that both ordinary investors and fund managers have a very complex psychology in the integer position. On the one hand, they all want to break this number, and on the other hand, they also know that the more they are at this time, the more accidents there will be. So at this time, they are looking forward to the continued rise of the index, and at the same time, they are also beware of accidents.

When the sell-off appeared, many people chuckled in their hearts, secretly said "if this is the case", and immediately joined the sell-off army without thinking, regardless of the reason, this is a typical herd effect.

Panic is spreading, and despite an hour's break at noon, it doesn't stop the frenzy in the slightest.

After the afternoon open, there was a bigger selling order on the heavyweight stocks, and there were traces of selling everywhere regardless of the cost, although there were also a lot of funds secretly absorbed, but they could not stand the momentum of the sell-off at all. And on the most sought-after theme stocks, buyers are almost impossible to find, and the market is selling frantically, and soon the first stocks with a falling limit appear.

Then came the second and third......

The market is in turmoil, panic is spreading, and people are constantly selling their stocks, even today's most sought-after theme stocks.

On the other side of the index weights, although there are repeated funds to buy the bottom, this panic cannot be contained. Fortunately, in this sector, because there are many institutional investors and value investors, although they are quite panicked, they are not as drastic as they are in theme stocks and gems.

Finally, when the day ended, the stock index fell by more than 320 points, a staggering 6.5%, and the stock index instantly returned to around 4,600 points, completely swallowing up the gains of the previous few trading days. More than 500 stocks in the market fell to the limit, more than 2,000 stocks fell, and there are only a handful of stocks that can finally maintain their gains throughout the day.

The performance of the market on this day was unanimously called a "crash" by the outside world.

Afterwards, people summarized the reasons for the sharp fall on this day, which were roughly divided into new shares re-listed, the decline in the leverage of the two financial institutions, and the intensive reduction of listed companies. But none of them were able to convince the market, because these news were not intraday today, they were all disclosed recently. In other words, the market did not fall because of these news, but when it hit 5000 points, it did a role.

Amateurs don't know what this is about, but for some professionals, the crash contains a lot of important information, the most critical of which is that the crash is about to begin, and this is a rehearsal.

Ordinary investors do not realize that the danger is gradually approaching, and they have self-comforting adjustments after the close, and at the same time, some ill-intentioned brokerages are also shouting, saying that this is a profit-taking in the early stage, and it does not affect the pattern of the bull market. This was also confirmed by the subsequent market performance, and on the third day of the decline, the market skyrocketed by 217 points, or 4.71%, and hundreds of stocks went straight to the limit, which greatly calmed the market's confidence.

With the lesson of this time, the market was not so surging when facing 5,000 points again, although the index soon stood firm at 4,800 points again, but in the next five trading days, the market volatility was very small, and it was not until June 5 that the market broke through 5,000 points in a very small fluctuation.

After a plunge, the stock market has not changed the nature of the bull market, and finally broke through this historical threshold in anticipation, an achievement that has made many investors rejoice, and some of them are expecting a new high of 6,000 points.

On June 8, the next trading day after breaking through 5,000 points, the stock market once again pulled out a dazzling positive line, and continued to rise by 108 points on the same day, an increase of 2.17%, only to stay at 5,000 points for one trading day and continue to rise, without any signs of nostalgia at all.

This performance made the market even more crazy, and 800 billion funds were traded on the same day, whether from the index or from the trading volume, the market is showing a scene of continued prosperity.

But no matter how brilliant the fireworks are, they will eventually be destroyed one day. The stock market is no exception, especially after the signal of more than 500 stocks falling en masse, the well-informed in this market has received the signal of a crash, and the ordinary people who are not alert enough are still immersed in a false prosperity.

The decline began on June 15, after which the market continued to rise after breaking through 5,100 points, although the magnitude was not as strong as before, and the index did not break through 5,178 points. But no matter what, the market is still going up every day.

Judging from the news of this day, there is no obvious negative, but there is a lot of good news, such as the robot industry, such as brokerage innovation, such as energy conservation and emission reduction, but no matter what, the market is down, from 5174 points to 5048 points, down 103 points, a decline of exactly 2%.

After 11 consecutive trading days of gains, there was a significant decline for the first time, but people are still saying that this is only a phased adjustment, and the market has not crashed and panicked.

The next day, the stock market fell again, and there was a gap at the opening, falling again by 175 points, or 3.47%, throughout the day, and the index fell directly from 5004 to 4887 points. Of course, this decline continues to be used as a signal of adjustment, and many funds are taking advantage of this opportunity to flock into the market, trying to buy the bottom at this time, and the trading volume was once close to 900 billion.

Sure enough, on June 17, after two consecutive days of decline, the stock market rose, rising 80 points on the day, and the index returned to 4967 points, and it seems that the correction phase is almost over, and then the market will return to around 5000 points.

But what many people don't realize is that this is just the beginning of a stock market crash, and the index will never return to 5,000 points in the coming months or even years.

On June 18, the stock market continued to fall, this time by 182 points, or 3.67%, from 4,942 to 4,785, which is one step further away from the expected 5,000 points.

What many people don't realize is that in these three small declines, the index has fallen from the highest point of 5,178 points to 4,785 points, a full 393 points, a drop of 7.5%. They are still immersed in the illusion of market correction and then continuing to rush up to 5,000 points, but they don't know that many institutions that have been planning for a long time have raised their butcher's knives and are quietly slashing at their heads.

On June 19, a historic day, the avalanche of the stock market officially kicked off from this day.

The news of the day is all good, including the transformation of the steel industry, the Internet conference, the air transport industry profit exceeded expectations, the big data conference was held, etc., but at the opening of the market directly gapped, the weighted stocks were strongly impacted, in the absence of any news, financial stocks were comprehensively frustrated, and at the same time, the theme stocks were also sold off hugely, and the intention of the main force to smash the market was very obvious. The index broke through the 4,700, 4,600, and 4,500 points mark in a row, and fell by 307 points throughout the day, a decline of 6.42%.

It is very similar to the decline of the last crash, but unlike the last crash, this time there are more than 1,000 stocks falling to the limit, and the market is full of mourning. (To be continued.) )