Since July 31, major US media have followed up with reports on the debt ceiling. This time, they took direct aim at the previous president of '08, making it clear that the $750 billion bailout plan was the most direct cause of the accelerated deterioration of the debt situation.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. government's debt ceiling will not explode until at least 2013, based on the growth rate of the original fiscal deficit. However, because of the subprime mortgage crisis, this situation has been greatly advanced. Saving the economy is necessary, but the debt ceiling cannot simply be attributed to this administration, and both parties have a responsibility to bear it.

The Washington Post unceremoniously pointed out that the Wall Street giants who were rescued still had the heart to pay high salaries and dividends when the company was in a huge crisis, which was simply a provocation to American taxpayers. It's a naked defense compared to those parties who don't plan to raise taxes on the rich, and it's hard to imagine in a society like the United States today. Using taxpayers' money to subsidize a portion of America's wealthy, and then making all taxpayers bear the consequences of the debt ceiling, is simply unreasonable, even criminal.

In the report, they called for an in-depth investigation by the U.S. Congress to address the serious harm caused by this injustice.

Bloomberg said that the issue of the US debt ceiling has once again pushed the rich class of the United States to the forefront, and it is undeniable that after the subprime mortgage crisis and the subsequent rescue operation, Americans' views on the rich class have fundamentally changed, so street movements such as "Occupy Wall Street" have also erupted. How to deal with the inequality of distribution will be the long-term task of the US government, regardless of which party is in power.

In addition to the mainstream newspapers, other smaller media outlets have published similar arguments. For a time, the mood of the entire American society was ignited.

This is exactly what the Democrats fought back, dealing a heavy blow to the Republicans when the debt ceiling finally came, and burning the war directly on the previous administration.

$750 billion is a hurdle that cannot be bypassed by the debt ceiling, and in fact, the United States has been running a deficit in international trade for many years, causing the fiscal deficit to grow year after year. This is the main reason why the US debt continues to accumulate. But the international trade deficit is a fact that cannot be changed, and the plan to save the economy by throwing out $750 billion is a point of contention.

If the U.S. government were to throw out an economic rescue package of $300 billion or less, it would not be in the spotlight, as it would be a tiny fraction of the $13 trillion debt. However, the scale of $750 billion is close to one trillion dollars, which is equivalent to 10% of the total debt, which has greatly stimulated the nerves of the American people.

Public opinion was reversed in an instant, and people no longer looked at the current government. Instead, the spearhead is directed at the former US administration and the party behind the former president.

The Republicans didn't seem to anticipate the move either, and they didn't have much time to retort, even if they wanted to do something, and the debt ceiling would be the final period in two days. If no agreement can be reached by then, then the focus of public opinion will be on them.

In this case, they had to choose a temporary compromise, and at the end of the day, they chose to raise the ceiling by $2 trillion. The fact that the United States is not in default on its debt has been preserved.

But the mere $2 trillion is not enough to sustain the U.S. government's spending for about two years. In 2013, the debt ceiling crisis broke out again, and this time it was even more serious, directly leading to the shutdown of certain parts of the federal government.

But all this is for later, and finally on August 2, 2011, the two parties in the US Congress chose to compromise under pressure. In the end, an agreement was reached to raise the debt ceiling, and the crisis of US debt was finally passed smoothly.

This compromise was soon reflected in the capital markets, and after a brief rally, the COMEX gold index suffered a rare decline in recent times on August 4, although it fell more than $40 at one point during the session. But at the end of the session, it suddenly rose again, widening in a narrow range, and finally fell by only $7.3.

Gold futures opened lower on August 5, and although a positive candle was opened, it ended up down by $7.2 from the previous day, and by 0.43% overall from the previous day.

Looking at this scenario, a correction in gold prices will not be avoided, because the biggest news in the near future has been fully digested by the market. While the clouds of the European debt crisis remain, expectations have been fully met for the gold market.

But in the middle of the night in the United States on this day, a sudden news came, which suddenly broke the market's expectations.

South Africa's Anglo Gold, the world's third-largest gold producer, has urgently announced that the mine in Johannesburg East has been attacked by unidentified armed forces, and the situation is unknown, but it is certain that gold production there will come to a standstill.

South Africa's northeastern border, bordered by Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Botswana, has been chaotic and complex since ancient times, with various forces involved. There is also a smuggling zone, where ivory, rhino horn, gold and even diamonds from all over the world are illegally traded.

Anglogold has a larger mining area right here. Originally, they hired a professional mercenary group, and they have been safe and sound. But recently, I don't know if it was because of the skyrocketing price of gold or some other reason, suddenly it was attacked by a well-armed force, and all the defenses were lost by surprise, and finally this force occupied the mine.

In the statement, Anglo claimed that it had sent a special representative to deal with the matter. But production losses are inevitable, and Anglo is expected to cut gold production by at least 20% during this time.

And on this very day, an article about gold consumption was also published in the Wall Street Journal. In the article, titled "Strong Consumption in Emerging Markets, Gold Hits New Highs in Low Season", the author describes: "In emerging countries such as China and India, gold consumption has become the brightest growth point for the jewelry industry. Among them, in China, the consumption of gold in the first quarter was close to the range of last year, and the rise in gold prices did not hinder the growth of gold consumption. On the contrary, it has contributed to the increase in gold consumption to a certain extent. ”

"In India, gold demand accounted for 32% of global consumption in 2010, or around 963 tonnes, of which 75% came from the jewellery sector, up 89% from last year. Despite the rising price of gold this year, it has been driven by a combination of rapid GDP growth, urbanization, an emerging middle class and high savings rates. Gold consumption continues to grow strongly, with India's gold consumption expected to rise by at least around 30% throughout the year. ”

In the article, the authors also state that "institutional enthusiasm for gold is also high, with SPDR ETF holdings increasing by more than 43t in mid-July. In addition, the role of gold in the reserve function of central banks in various countries is also highlighting year by year. According to incomplete statistics, the central bank gold reserves of more than 80% of the world's countries. Growth has been seen in the last three quarters. ”

These two pieces of news basically represent two sides of the gold market, namely supply and consumption. On the one hand, the force majeure reduction of production, and on the other hand, the strong growth of demand, as soon as the two news spread, it immediately caused a strong reaction in the market.

As soon as the market opened on August 8, affected by these two news, the price of gold immediately showed a momentum of rapid growth. The momentum of opening higher and moving higher did not change throughout the day, and finally the price of gold soared by $61.5 on this day. Not only did it break through the $1,700 mark, but it also stood firmly above $1,710.

Gold prices hit new highs again.

In the following two days. Gold prices rose again by 1.74% and 2.37%, respectively, and once stood above the $1,800 mark, but the market retreated and finally stayed at the $1,784 per ounce level.

In just three days, the price of gold has risen to nearly $200, which is something that no one could have guessed. The crazy upward momentum not only stunned the market, but also made many people who were on the sidelines feel incredible.

Next, on the 11th and 12th, with the profit-taking, the gold price showed a brief downward adjustment, and there was a certain decline. But the price is still stable around $1,750, which gives waiters hope for a continued rally.

However, just when the downward momentum was rising, Barrick, the world's largest gold producer, announced on the 15th that their gold production in Chile would be stalled for a period of time due to mechanical failures.

According to publicly disclosed information, a batch of new mining machinery ordered by Barrick has just been shipped to Peru, and the operators have just been trained and are not very familiar with the operation of the machinery. This, coupled with the complex geography of the mining area, eventually led to the failure of a number of new machinery.

Barrick Gold also said it had urgently contacted the machinery manufacturer and that they would send a commissioner to Peru to check the breakdown. If the failure turns out to be no major problem, expect to resolve all the issues within a week.

In the announcement, Barrick Gold also said that Peru's mining areas do not account for a large proportion of Barrick's gold production map, and gold production is expected to decrease by about 5% in the near future. However, once production resumes, Barrick will make up for this part of the production as much as possible and strive to complete the production task for the whole year.

Regardless of the market's speculation, the problems of the world's first and third gold producers at this time have undoubtedly greatly accelerated the rise in gold prices. So on August 15, the price of gold, which had opened low, rebounded under the stimulus of this news, and finally rose by $15.4 throughout the day to close at the level of $1,758 per ounce, steadily stopping the decline of the previous two days.

"Gentlemen, the time has come to close the position!"

At the end of the day, Zhong Shi summoned everyone over, and after everyone sat down, his first sentence surprised everyone.

"Close the position now?"

Paulson said with some reluctance, "The current momentum is soaring, and the price of gold has at least some room to rise, is it too early?" ”

Several people understand what has happened in the market in the past two days, but they still have a lot of hesitation in the face of the huge temptation of profits.

The others didn't speak, but their twinkling eyes expressed their doubts.

"No, there's only QE3 in the future!"

Zhong Shi said categorically, "And the chairman of the Federal Reserve will not take it lightly, because the price of gold has already become unreasonable, and he will not add fuel to the fire at this time." So if I predict that, even if they might implement QE, they won't choose to say it at this time. ”

"If the guess is correct, the bears have suffered heavy losses during this period and are most likely preparing a counterattack. If we don't have follow-up news to back us up, we will soon be defeated! ”

"Besides, gentlemen, from the original $1,100 per ounce, to now making more than 50% of the profits on the market, is it still not satisfactory to you?"

Zhong Shi spread his hands and said helplessly. (To be continued.) )

PS: Thank you for the monthly ticket from cpower! Thanks to gengsu for the tip! When the situation is basically satisfactory, I feel that time has passed quickly, and when I am too busy every day, I also feel that time flies quickly~ It's the weekend in two days, and now I'm starting to feel a little bottomless, and I'm very pleased that there was no big disappointment last weekend, and I hope this weekend won't be too miserable, so I hope everyone will continue to vote actively, and those who don't have a monthly ticket can vote for more recommendations, and I'm grateful~