On the evening of the 10th, as soon as the European and American trading hours opened, the trend of selling Hong Kong dollars in the markets of London and New York was set off again. Led by the Quantum Fund and the Tiger Fund, the speculators once again pushed the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar to 7.75, but the HKMA soon launched a counterattack, and the two sides fought back and forth, and the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar once jumped to 7.7435 per US dollar, but the speculators once again stubbornly forced the Hong Kong dollar back to the level of 7.7480, and the two sides shook hands here.

Originally, because there were two rest days apart, the cost of speculators' positions increased, so the Hong Kong dollar opened at 7.7485, which is a significant increase compared with the previous trading day. The HKMA also planned to use this opportunity to snipe at the speculators, but the tenacious speculators did not stop there, but instead showed an undying posture, which completely failed the HKMA's wishful thinking.

On this day, speculators threw a total of about 45 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the trading volume was refreshed again. Since the beginning of August, speculators have sold hundreds of billions of Hong Kong dollars from the market, depleting nearly $20 billion of the HKMA's US dollar reserves. But both the offensive and defensive sides know that this is only the beginning if they want to break down the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate system. So far, speculators have only depleted up to 25% of the Hong Kong government's foreign exchange reserves, and most of the remaining half are still sitting firmly in the HKMA's accounts.

Although the money market is still stable and standing, the capital market's response to this has been very different, and as soon as the market opened on the 11th, the call rate soared by 5%, reaching an astonishing 15% annualized.

The bank balances published by the HKMA show. In the past day, liquidity in Hong Kong's financial system has been reduced by HK$72 billion, and despite the HKMA's pledge to inject funds to increase liquidity, the market as a whole remains shrouded in pessimism.

The bearish attack is coming, and the stock market is under pressure.

Although yesterday's market can only be regarded as a small fight, but today in the face of two days of negative news, the Hang Seng Index fell 9 points at the opening, and then the stock market fell all the way, which is like a bamboo. Soon it fell below 7000 points. After breaking through the integer point, the index still can't stop the downward trend. continued to go down frantically, and then fell below 6900 points, 6800 points, and finally encountered a strong sniper at 6750 points, although it fell to 6725 points at one point in the session. But under the stubborn sniping of the bulls, they finally barely gave back a little. It closed at 6779 points.

"It fell 254 points all day. Decreased by 3.62%. Ma Jiarui calmly reported a bunch of numbers, and said worriedly, "It's not okay to go on like this." We're all going to die in it. ”

"yes!" Ren Ruowei also hurriedly echoed, "We have no way to fight with international speculators, they are too rich in funds, as long as there is a little wind and grass in the periphery, plus they are making waves in the stock market, we will be in a deep quagmire." ”

After finishing speaking, he was still a little unsatisfied, snapped his fingers, and said, "Do you know how many rumors there are today?" If nothing else, there are several rumors about HSBC's heavyweight stock alone, some saying that their bad capital is strictly above the warning line, some saying that their core capital margin does not meet the minimum of the Basel Accord, and there are even rumors that HSBC North America has suffered heavy losses on investments, which may affect the profit of the third quarter financial statements by three percentage points. Every rumor has a nose and an eye, and it is difficult for people to distinguish between truth and falsehood. ”

"There's also a lot of news from the real estate world. Leaving aside the impact of the increase in the call rate on their financing, there is a rumor today that the Hong Kong government will cut government spending, focusing on infrastructure construction, of which the second phase of the IFC project may be delayed indefinitely. As soon as this news came out, the stocks of MTR and Sun Hung Kai immediately fell by more than five percentage points, directly dragging down the entire real estate sector! ”

Ma Jiarui also added in due course. The real estate sector he is responsible for has fallen the most severely among all Hong Kong stocks today, falling by more than 6%.

"It's much more than that!"

Zhong Shi sighed and said worriedly: "These can still be clarified, as long as the party or the company makes an announcement, the stock price will rise." The big question now is, will the renminbi depreciate? If it depreciates, what will the magnitude look like? This is the most important factor dragging down the entire Hong Kong stocks. ”

The prevailing view in the market is that it is difficult for the RMB to guarantee its current value under the premise that currencies in Southeast Asia are depreciating one after another. Because the pressure from international trade will make the goods from China lack competitiveness, and China, which drives economic growth with foreign trade exports, urgently needs an increase in export quotas, it is difficult to ensure that the value of the renminbi will continue to stabilize.

There are even economists from investment banks who have suggested that the renminbi should be devalued by 5% to 15%, which would be a reasonable price. In the relevant research report, the investment bank gave the economic growth rate of China in the first two quarters, and the obvious slowdown hit the attention of every investor. In the report, these economists, who speculated on the depreciation of the renminbi, wrote:

“…… If it wants to maintain its current economic growth, China's surplus in imports and exports will further widen. And this trade surplus is precisely one of the important pressures on the appreciation of the renminbi. But at present, China has not opened up its capital market, and the rules of the monetary system are rigid and stubborn, but this is precisely the wisdom of the country's leaders. The use of high-return investments to neutralize the surplus due to international trade can in some way alleviate the pressure from currency appreciation......"

“…… If you choose to depreciate at this time, it can stimulate the development of the foreign trade industry, enhance its competitiveness, and continue to drive economic growth. Second, it can effectively stop the outflow of funds and ensure the confidence of foreign investors......"

Although shortly after taking office in March, the Zhuge Pavilion government stated that it would guarantee that the economic growth rate would reach 8%, inflation would be less than 3%, and the yuan would not depreciate. However, judging from the statistics of the previous two quarters, it is clear that this goal is relatively difficult to achieve, so the call for a depreciation of the renminbi is once again loud.

Except, of course, of the call for a devaluation of the yuan. There is another voice, that is, the yuan will not depreciate. This voice is led by Andy Tse, the new chief economist of Stanley Hong Kong.

A graduate of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Andy worked at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) before moving to McQuarie Bank in Singapore, where he was recruited by Stanley Hong Kong last year as chief economist for the Asia-Pacific region.

Unlike the chief economists of most foreign investment banks, Andy Tse is a particularly upright and outspoken person, who is not at all controlled by foreign capital, so his opinions are highly valued in the financial circles of Hong Kong and even China.

In an economic report released in July, Andy Hsieh bluntly argued that the Chinese government should not consider currency depreciation at this time. In the text. He pointed out sharply. The so-called devaluation of the building yì currency is essentially a conspiracy. This is because once the devaluation is announced, there will be an immediate ripple effect, not only the capital originally invested in the mainland of China will accelerate the flight of capital. Even the currencies of Southeast Asian countries will continue to depreciate.

And once you fall into this strange circle. The end result is a race to depreciate. The prices of the products being exported will only get lower and lower. And if an importing country starts a trade war, the consequences will be catastrophic. At that time, it will not only not stimulate economic growth, but will also have a heavy impact on the export industry. Bankruptcies, unemployment, deflation and other problems will ensue.

Not to mention the impact on the overall situation, the Hong Kong market alone will have a huge impact on whether the renminbi will eventually depreciate. This impact is not only on Hong Kong-listed companies, but also on the Hong Kong dollar and the entire Hong Kong economy.

This is one of the important reasons why the Hong Kong stock market has been sluggish in recent months.

After quickly going through these views in his head, Zhong Shi let out a long sigh and said: "Now there is another point of view in the market, that is, 'dollarization of Hong Kong dollars', canceling the issuance of Hong Kong dollars and replacing all the currency in circulation with US dollars, because if this is the case, there will be no reason for international speculators to attack Hong Kong." Hey, it's speechless! ”

"Dollarization of the Hong Kong dollar?" Ma Jiarui chuckled lightly and said disdainfully, "Give up the power to issue coins to others?" This is simply a ridiculous joke. How could the central government possibly agree with such a view? Even the Hong Kong government can't get guò! Seigniorage falls into the hands of others, and no sovereign country in the world would do that! ”

"You're right!" Zhong Shi nodded approvingly, and then explained, "I'm just making an analogy, there are different opinions in the market now, and it is difficult to distinguish between true and false, but they all affect investors' decision-making in a certain way. So, this can also be used by us, and we can also release news that is good for us! ”

"We?" Ma Jiarui and Ren Ruowei's expressions were very stunned, and after a while, Ma Jiarui's face showed a thoughtful expression, but Ren Ruowei pointed to the TV on the wall, and said sarcastically, "Is it just him?" That's a bit child's play! ”

On the TV on the wall, a financial program is playing, and Andrew is sitting in a suit and leather shoes, being interviewed by the host, seemingly explaining today's stock market situation in an authentic manner.

Although Andrew has a small reputation in financial circles, this fame is also limited to a certain circle. Relative to the overall situation, his role is extremely limited.

After all, this time is different from the past, and many people have no bottom in their hearts if they want to play against international speculators. Although in the past two days, Andrew has trumpeted on TV that Hong Kong stocks have bottomed out, but the two consecutive days of decline have damaged his creditworthiness. So if you want to send news through him and affect the overall situation, in Ren Ruowei's opinion, it is a bit of a fool's dream.

Ma Jiarui didn't speak, looked at Andrew on TV, and then looked at Zhong Shi with a confident face, and suddenly he seemed to realize something, a pair of eyes kept changing between the two scenes, and he didn't know what he was thinking.

"Not bad!" Looking at Ren Ruowei in disbelief, Zhong Shi smiled disapprovingly and said, "Hong Kong stocks fell so hard today, and there should be a small rebound tomorrow." But until the news I am waiting for arrives, I will not tell you about my specific plans. Just wait and see, you'll be amazed by the time! ”

"I hope so!" Ren Ruowei muttered dissatisfiedly, and then reminded, "Today spent another 500 million funds, although so far, we have only used a small part of the funds, but if this momentum continues, it is possible for Hong Kong stocks to fall to 5,000 points, you have to be mentally prepared." ”

Since most of the funds in the Tianyu Fund are Zhong Shi's, even if Ren Ruowei wants to object, he can only hint at Zhong Shi from the side.

"In addition, if the Hong Kong dollar really can't be kept, not only you, but even us will suffer at that time!" After thinking about it, Ren Ruowei added.

Zhong Shi didn't speak, just frowned and looked at Ren Ruowei, and suddenly a thought couldn't stop popping out of his mind, "This guy is very pitiful!" (To be continued......)

PS: Thank you for the book friend gambler is not me, and the handsome guy No. 007 voted for the monthly ticket! Recently, I'm going to start getting busy again, no matter what, the book still has to be written, and I will do my best to keep writing~ Thank you for your continued support~ Although the future is very difficult, I believe that as long as you persist patiently, a disappointment will eventually pass......