Chapter Ninety-Six: A Strong Rebound
Hong Kong's counterattack against international speculators was soon reflected in the London market, where the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate opened at 7.7485 that night, much higher than the previous trading day's price of 7.7490. Although speculators who speculated on the Hong Kong dollar began to exert their efforts, pushing the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar to a minimum of 7.7494 points, it was subsequently stabilized by the HKMA. Seeing that the breakdown of 7.75 again failed, international speculators began to turn around and buy Hong Kong dollars to cover their positions.
If the previous small short selling was a test of the HKMA's determination to protect the Hong Kong dollar, then at this time, international speculators are sincerely making up for the short positions in the Hong Kong dollar and are determined to retreat from the Hong Kong dollar foreign exchange market, because they have fully achieved their goal and made huge profits in another battlefield. Now, one more day of delay in the foreign exchange market will add a high cost by one day, and the high cost of 300% of the high interest rate can not be afforded even by international speculators.
At this time, the roles of short selling and buying are reversed, and how can the HKMA, as the largest seller in the market, give up this good opportunity to beat the water dogs? Traders began to hold back on the market and reluctant to sell, releasing only a small amount of Hong Kong dollars to push up the exchange rate step by step. Their operation strategy was quickly understood by the commercial banks, so the foreign exchange trading department of the bank also began to cover the market.
Due to the previous fierce attack on the Hong Kong dollar by international speculators, nearly 50 billion Hong Kong dollars were sold in the entire market, which is definitely not what any commercial bank can sell in a short period of time. Coupled with the reluctance of the monetary authority to sell, the largest seller, so the Hong Kong dollar sellers, who were still flooding the foreign exchange market, suddenly disappeared without a trace. International speculators were unable to buy the full amount of Hong Kong dollars, which greatly surprised them.
There is no way, international speculators can only store the spot in the market by constantly increasing the price of buying Hong Kong dollars, and the result of this operation is that the price of Hong Kong dollars against US dollars has risen vigorously, from the lowest 7.7494 to 7.7400. After reaching this threshold, they successively bought part of the Hong Kong dollar spot, but because this rise made the banks more optimistic about the rebound of the Hong Kong dollar in the short term, so they were more reluctant to sell, and this lack of liquidity made it more difficult for speculators to buy, so the Hong Kong dollar rose again after 7.7400.
It's time to close. International speculators are almost crying. 7.7350, which is the highest offer they gave and the closing price of the Hong Kong dollar in the London market. This offer has exceeded the cost price of their position, which means that the speculators have lost money in the offensive and defensive battle of the Hong Kong dollar. Although these are to be expected. But the worst thing is. Even so. They still haven't bought enough spot Hong Kong dollars to cover their positions, because the HKMA hasn't released too much currency at all, which means that Hong Kong is still not satisfied with this offer!
It seems that the quotation will be raised on the next trading day! International speculators can only console themselves with this. But they weren't too worried. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) will not let the price of the Hong Kong dollar push too high, and now it only needs to find out the psychological bottom line of the HKMA. In the midst of this complex and contradictory market sentiment, international speculators ended the day's trading and silently swallowed the price of a high 300% call rate for a day.
The recovery in the value of the Hong Kong dollar in the foreign exchange market also had a strong stimulus on the stock market the next day. Before the opening of the Hang Seng Index the next day, analysts spat on the connection between the foreign exchange market and Hong Kong stocks, and they all invariably mentioned that with the recovery of the value of the Hong Kong dollar, international speculators will also stay away from the Hong Kong currency, in other words, there is no danger of depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar. In this case, it is bound to stimulate investors' confidence, due to the previous trading day to raise the call rate and the panic plunge will inevitably rebound, so it is recommended that investors enter the market as soon as possible to grab the band, or enter the market to open a position to lower the average price, in short, as long as you buy it.
Skillful analysts are not just talking about it, but also have a certain theoretical foundation and logical reasoning ability. Although they usually speak in a cloud and fog, making it unclear what they mean, but in early trading today, almost all TV analysts unanimously declared that Hong Kong stocks would rise sharply, which made investor confidence soar, what could be more important than the result that all analysts believed? As a result, a large amount of money poured into the stock market.
The result is surprising that after the initial bidding stage, Hong Kong stocks actually broke out a low opening trend, opening 10226 points, which is 200 points lower than the previous trading day's 10426 points, which makes almost all analysts lose face, and what is even more embarrassing is that in the initial trading time, Hong Kong stocks are still going down, and the lowest fell to 10187 points, a full drop of 39 points.
By this time, some analysts on television were ready to change their tune. These analysts were originally people who saw the wind and steered the rudder, and naturally knew when to say what to say, and those who reacted quickly had already thought of a lot of excuses, such as "speculators are unwilling to fail" and "make a comeback", while some investors were a little confused by this kind of words at both ends of the first mouse, and they didn't know what to do for a while.
Just when some analysts were talking about "unclear trends" and "cautious stock selection" on TV, the Hang Seng Index began a new round of skyrocketing, 10187 points became the lowest point of the day, and then large amounts of money began to enter the market one after another, pushing up the price of Hong Kong stocks step by step, 10200 points, 10300 points, 10400 points and other integer points were surpassed one after another, and the Hang Seng Index rose in a straight line, with a rapid momentum, sweeping away the decline of the previous days. Among the entire sector, financial stocks and state-owned enterprise stocks have risen the most, which has also made investors start to chase these stocks frantically while being overjoyed.
This phenomenon of falling first and then rising made some analysts who were talking on television fall through their glasses, and they never imagined that the previous decline would be a false shot. At this time, analysts who have just expressed their cautious attitude about the prospects of Hong Kong stocks are eager to slap themselves in the face, and this inconsistent attitude will definitely make their reputation fall to the bottom among investors.
Later, according to the statistics of some people, as many as 15 real-time TV analysts were eliminated in such an abnormal market. Nature. That's all for later.
At this time, those analysts who are still regretting not changing their views on the market in time are naturally overjoyed, they have become gold analysts in the eyes of investors because of a moment of hesitation, although they have had the idea of changing their words in their hearts, but at this time this group of people began to support Hong Kong stocks in unison, and even climbed to the level of the closing number.
Among this group of puppeteers, there are a few real people who have learned from the facts, carefully analyzing the volatility of the Hang Seng Index and the futures index, and then telling investors that the previous decline was due to the short seller's rush to sell. Therefore, in the auction stage, it is crazy to sell at a low price. Suppress the Hang Seng Index to liquidate positions in the futures market. This is just a trick to fake a shot, and the deeper purpose is that the bears begin to feel frightened, and they will not hesitate to suppress Hong Kong stocks and sell off the sell orders on hand.
And the bulls clearly see their intentions. After the initial decline, it didn't mess up. Instead, it is better to lose money than to drag down the main force of the bears. Even at the expense of opening the opponent's order at a low level, so that the bears have no way to close the position.
Because of the entry of the market funds, plus the repurchase of listed companies. There was also extreme positive news, which made the sentiment of the whole market explode, and the Hang Seng Index rose strongly all the way, and finally at the close, the Hang Seng Index rose 718 points to close at 11144 points, an increase of 6.89%, the largest single-day increase since September 3.
Almost all investors who participated in today's buying were satisfied, except for those who were naturally short.
However, there is another group of people, although they are not involved in the investment activities of the market, but this day is the most thrilling day for them, and some people are even scared almost incontinent on the spot.
……
After hanging up Zhong Shi's phone the day before, Yu Detong did not dare to make his own claims, and hurriedly reported the situation to the company's senior management. In fact, because Zhong Shi's position is too large, his position is a little flustered and attracts the attention of this brokerage house all the time.
After hearing that the customer had to increase the position of 2,500 sell orders, the entire management was stunned, but this was an excellent commission opportunity for them, and they also declared the corresponding risks to the customer, at least from the legal level, they had no responsibility, so even if Zhong Shi had such a seemingly suicidal request, they were happy to accept it.
It's just that 2,500 short orders were eaten in one day, which was too much of a burden for a brokerage house, and the result was that all the traders of the entire brokerage house went out to make a list of Zhongshi, and the result was that they finally absorbed enough sell orders before the market closed.
Because of the soaring rise of the Hang Seng Index, the bulls are full of confidence and continue to open long-term orders in the current month, which also makes Yu Detong save a lot of effort when absorbing sell orders. After all, in the case of the soaring Hang Seng Index, there are not too many speculators who have the courage to do the counterparty, and in this case, there are large sell orders in the market, and the bulls will naturally not let go.
The result is that the traders just bought the sell order at a price, and the next second they found that the sell order had a loss, and with the rise of the market, the loss of the sell order became worse.
Yu Detong, who couldn't withstand the pressure, had no choice but to dial Zhong Shi's phone again, in fact, he was also a little scared, seeing that these positions continued to lose, even more than 10 million Hong Kong dollars, although Zhong Shi's account still had a surplus of at least more than a billion, but Yu Detong still felt helpless.
Zhong Shi, who answered the phone, naturally reprimanded him well, and hung up the phone directly without even listening to the amount of loss. Yu Detong was speechless for a while, and finally could only relay Zhong Shi's original words to the trader, "It's just to hedge risks, my position in the stock market is bigger than this, you don't have to worry." Also, your so-called analysis and strategy don't work for me, so don't sell it. ”
Naturally, this group of traders listened and looked at each other, they never expected to meet such a customer who did not play cards according to common sense at all. However, this also put them at ease, and the subsequent operation is naturally to gradually raise the price and reduce the loss. Even so, in the end, the 2,500 new sell orders lost 43 million Hong Kong dollars at the closing time.
So far, Zhongshi's short position in October has been fully established, in addition to the previous position, today another 2,500 new lots have been created, the average price is around 10,800, and the temporary loss on the book is 43 million Hong Kong dollars. It is also difficult for Yu Detong and his colleagues to raise the average position to such a height when the index is extremely unfavorable and both long and short sides are suppressed at the same time.
……
"Finally some of it is out!" After the market closed, Billy. Kim let out a sigh of relief.
During this time, he was in charge of the situation of the Hong Kong stock futures index market, and after yesterday's sharp fall, the entire Tiger Fund earned a staggering 3 billion Hong Kong dollars on the Hong Kong stock futures index, which was generated when Julian Robertson underestimated the Hong Kong market. If the "tiger" really dares to let go of it, I am afraid that this number will soar several times.
The next step is how to pocket these floating profits, because such a large-scale liquidation will inevitably trigger the pursuit of the bulls, which requires strategy.
Therefore, as soon as the Hong Kong stock market opened today, it fell in order to cooperate with the escape of the bears of the Hang Seng Futures Index. Under the fierce sell-off, Billy. Jin successfully escaped close to 3,000 sell orders, but then his purpose was seen through by the bulls, and in the end he could only hold more than 7,000 sell orders to slowly flatten, while enduring the loss of floating profits little by little, and finally controlled the entire position at 7,000 at the close.
"If Hong Kong stocks are allowed to rise, our floating profits will continue to decrease, and we may not be able to make up for the losses from the foreign exchange market!" Billy. Kim shook her head helplessly at his boss Robert Brown. Setron grumbled.
Robert. Cetron also has a dignified face, this time the attack on Hong Kong stocks is far from achieving the expected gains, which has a lot to do with their ignorance of the Hong Kong market. Specifically, they had no idea that the Hong Kong market would be so fragile that a rumor that seemed almost ridiculous to them would scare investors and bring the entire market into a state of collapse, an outcome that even Julian Robertson did not expect. Otherwise, they wouldn't have shorted more than 10,000 sell orders.
"You're right!" Robert. Setron replied absentmindedly, but then as if he remembered something, he subconsciously added, "However, I believe that the boss should have a backhand, let's wait and see!" (To be continued......)
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