Chapter 294: The European Consortium (7)

Hearing Zhong Shi's words, everyone didn't speak for a long time.

There is undoubtedly another choice in front of them, although Zhong Shi's reasons are almost absurd and not convincing at all, but everyone is a human spirit, and without exception they choose to ignore Zhong Shi's so-called "gambling theory" and shift the focus of attention to Zhong Shi's original intention.

Was this proposal another temptation by Zhong Shi to them? See if they are sincerely repentant or if they are purely verbal.

For a while, everyone's faces were cloudy, and their hearts were thinking as if they were turning over the river and the sea.

"I'm joining!"

Paulson was the first to jump out, having mustered up the courage to reject Bell Seok's offer a few days earlier, only to fall into a loss within a few days, and although it was not a bone-wrenching blow, it was a fatal blow to his self-confidence.

After witnessing Bell Stone's single-handedness in turning the tide of the game, Paulson had fanatical confidence in Bell Stone. The reason why he hesitated for a long time was not that he was thinking about anything, but that he wanted to see how others reacted first.

After no response for a long time, Paulson finally couldn't hold back and jumped out first.

"I agree!"

Immediately afterwards, Dario also expressed his opinion, "Even if the data released by the EU is a little better than expected, can't we create a little more things and make the whole situation a little more chaotic?" ”

His words can be said to wake up the dreamer at once.

"I'm joining too!"

"Count me in!"

……

The rest of the others took a stand, as if all their worries disappeared all at once.

Their thinking has fallen into the misconception that all the current considerations are focused on the upcoming economic data of the European Union, ignoring their subjective role. But after being reminded by Dario, they realized that what Bell Stone had done not so long ago had shaken the global financial community by accelerating the crisis of a Spanish bank.

As everyone knows. The EU's economic data is out of the question, and even the US government can't do anything about it. It is precisely because all eyes are fixed on the economic data of the European Union that they do not realize that there is actually an article that can be done. After such a reminder from Dario, they suddenly came to their senses.

"So everybody's on board, huh?"

Although Zhong Shi's tone was flat, he gave Dario a thumbs up in his heart. This guy manages the world's largest hedge fund. When everyone couldn't figure out Zhong Shi's true intentions, he was able to think calmly and accurately guess Zhong Shi's hidden back moves, and he was indeed a veritable character.

"Yes!"

Dai Lio seemed to have a lot of emotion in his chest, and there was no emotion fluctuation in his tone, "So Mr. Zhong, can you tell me what kind of aftermath you will have now?" ”

Originally, Zhong Shi did have the intention of being tempted, but after being broken by Dai Lio, it naturally lost its effect, so now Dai Lio urged him to say the back hand.

But when these words fell into the ears of others, they became a different meaning. That is, if they were on the wrong side at the beginning, they would not have had the opportunity to hear Zhongshi's follow-up now, which also means that they have lost the opportunity to make more profits. At the thought of this, a layer of cold sweat suddenly broke out on their backs, and at the same time, they were full of gratitude to Dario.

Zhong Shi, who was broken by Dario, was not annoyed, nor did he have the slightest shame, and said lightly: "My initial assumption is that in the next few days, we will continue to suppress the exchange rate of the euro. Before the release of economic data by the European Union, it will be released together with my follow-up moves. If the economic data of the EU is not ideal. This is to add insult to injury; If the EU data is better than expected, then at least my follow-up moves will be able to offset the positive impact of the news to some extent. ”

"Anyway, I think we're in an undefeated position, don't I?"

Hearing Zhong Shi's words, the others suddenly realized that Zhong Shi had already calculated. Think about it too. With his ingenuity, how could he have uttered such a ridiculous thing as "gambling".

"What the hell is that?"

Ackerman asked, "If the EU releases good economic data, then what kind of news can offset the positive news from the EU, I'm really curious." ”

As one of the two lowest net worth. His heart was now full of fear. If it weren't for Dario's words, he would have given up this operation. Of course, he didn't have a grudge against Zhong Shi, and if he thought about it, he couldn't fully trust these people who had just gone against his will.

Like him, the others were curious, as could be deduced from their visibly bold gasps.

"Spain!"

Zhong Shi snorted and sneered twice, and said to everyone, "Gentlemen, do you think that this is the end of the situation in Spain? There's a lot of room for manoeuvre! ”

Hearing Zhong Shi's words, everyone's minds began to come alive again.

I have to say that this is also a misunderstanding of thinking. That is, after Bell Stone hastened the crisis of CajaSur Bank, everyone has achieved their goal, and the motivation to continue in this situation has disappeared, so they did not follow the thought. Now, after Zhong Shi's reminder, they realized that there is indeed a lot of room for maneuver in the current Spain.

……

Two days later, a piece of news began to circulate in the market, and although it was not confirmed, the lethality of the news was like a nuclear bomb, and it soon swept the entire global market.

The rumor is that, based on the current financial situation, the three major rating agencies will soon be dealing with the downgrading of the French government.

This time the finger is on France, the second-largest economy in the eurozone after Germany in terms of GDP.

At present, there are no problems with the French economy, but at most the growth rate has been adjusted again and again, from the original 2.4% to the current 1.3%. On the other hand, the debt of the public sector is high, but it only accounts for about 63% of GDP, which is fundamentally different from countries such as Greece and Italy.

However, after the rumors were aimed at France, they still created a huge panic in the market, because of France's special status, once France was downgraded, the cost of raising funds in the market would be greatly increased. Combined with the rate of their economic growth, it will further increase their debt ratio. In time, it is not impossible for France to fall into a real debt crisis.

But this time, the French moved quickly, and just as the rumors were directed at the French government, their budget minister jumped out immediately, declaring that France needed to carry out further economic reforms and reduce the budget plan. Make every effort to maintain the current AAA credit level. At the same time, he also revealed that the government and the business community are discussing the matter, and relevant information will be disclosed soon.

During this period, the United Kingdom, Italy, Greece, Spain and other countries have introduced plans to reduce spending, although these plans have been strongly opposed by domestic trade unions, the demonstrations in Greece continue day by day, Italy, Spain and other countries have also erupted in large-scale demonstrations, and there are even voices encouraging trade unions across Europe to stand up and hold a Europe-wide strike, but the French government's statement. It was still the quickest time to dispel the influence of the rumors.

Despite the official statement, there are still economists who believe that France is too optimistic about the current economic situation.

But soon their president came out and announced a series of measures: the government took a series of measures to reform the fiscal system and reduce the budget deficit. At the same time, it is planned to amend the constitution to include the achievement of a balance in public finances as a permanent goal of the government. Not only that, the French government is also considering the implementation of pension system reform. Currently, pensions account for almost 70% of public spending in France. It is the largest source of the country's budget deficit.

At the same time, the French president also pledged that the French government would reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2010 from 8.2% in 2010 and limit the ratio to 3% set by the European Union within three years.

This series of measures confirmed that the words of the previous French budget minister were not unfounded, and soon the rumors about France were dispelled as if nothing had happened.

But the wave has not settled. Wave after wave.

Just on May 31, the last day of the month, Fitch, one of the three major rating agencies, announced without warning that it had downgraded Spain's sovereign rating to AA+ from the previous AAA, with a stable outlook.

Fitch believes. Spain's fiscal consolidation is expected to severely slow down its economic growth in the medium term, and Spain will go through a longer and more difficult economic adjustment process than other AAA countries, and the country's economic recovery will be slower than the government currently anticipates.

Fitch also said that risk in the banking sector has become the most important economic factor in Spain. So far, 12 of Spain's 45 savings banks are seeking to merge. If the negotiations don't go well, there is a high chance that a similar case like CajaSur's case will appear among them. If the Bank of Spain intervenes again, it will greatly affect their liquidity, which could affect Spain's current fiscal policy and make it difficult to achieve its goal of cutting fiscal spending.

It should be noted that this is the second time this month that Fitch has downgraded Spain's sovereign credit rating, having previously downgraded Spain's sovereign rating from AAA+ to AAA.

So far, among the three major international rating agencies, Standard & Poor's downgraded Spain's sovereign rating from AA+ to AA as early as the end of April; And Moody's still gives Spain a AAA rating.

The market predicts that Moody's will soon follow suit and downgrade Spain's sovereign rating.

Eurozone bank stocks fell again on the news, and although the decline was not as pronounced as the previous one, the pessimism was far worse than the last. Most importantly, the overnight interest rate among European banks has climbed to a staggering 0.25%. At the same time, in the dollar market in London in March, borrowing costs have risen by 0.33%, both of which are about to reach a record high.

Two pieces of news hit the euro forex market hard.

The French news caused the euro to plummet by 1.18% on the day, closing at $1.2187 per euro, which is extremely close to the 1.2 mark. Later, because of the timely statement of the French side, the euro rebounded for a time. But soon, as the news of the downgrade of the Spanish government spread, the euro fell again, but this time European consortiums took action and bought euros in the market almost at any cost, trying to maintain the defense of 1.2 from being breached, and finally the day before the release of important economic data in Europe, the euro remained at the price level of 1.2176.

However, the news of another crisis in the eurozone is not only affecting one part of the eurozone, but in fact the entire world economy is being stirred. Because of the impact of the debt crisis in Europe, the pace of economic recovery in the world has been slowed down, and after the implementation of economic stimulus policies in 08 in some regions, it is now the time to gradually withdraw, and now it is slowed down because of Europe.

On the same day that Spain was downgraded, Canada announced a 25 basis point increase in its benchmark interest rate to 0.60%, becoming the first G7 country to raise interest rates.

By releasing liquidity to the market, it stimulates economic growth. So far, Canada has managed to recover economically, with their GDP growing by 6.1% in the first quarter of 2010. Now they want to think about gradually withdrawing the stimulus package and starting to control inflation, so interest rate hikes are inevitable.

But the problem is that if Canada raises interest rates, it will also accelerate the flight of funds from Europe to North America, which will undoubtedly be a major blow to the eurozone. (To be continued.) )

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