Chapter 115 On the Importance of Central Banks Maintaining Their Independence
Park Xilai is very proud, very proud, full of spring breeze, even in the past two days, even the cleaning aunt has rarely shrugged the cold and warmed up, and the attitude is so numb that no one else can bear to look at it directly, and even makes the cleaning aunt who is over fifty years old and can be called an old woman wonder if the president has taken a fancy to her.
It is no wonder that the character of the ethnic group of the peninsula is always both inferior and arrogant, and this complex national character has led to many unrealistic ideas among Koreans. It is precisely because of this national character that Koreans later filmed a lot of Korean dramas with the bloody episode of "Black Rooster Becomes Phoenix".
Aunt Cleaning deliberately spent a lot of money to do hair, beauty, etc., hoping that the president could be more pleasing to the eye, and even she once had the idea of plastic surgery, but because the cost was too high, she gave up.
Since the Bank of Korea unabashedly intervened in the won foreign exchange market, the wind of the whole market has changed, and the number of won buyers has increased significantly. Because of the backing of the Bank of Korea, they have no scruples about arbitraging the exchange difference, and the trading volume of the won has increased significantly.
In this case, although the number and intensity of the corresponding selling orders in the market have increased significantly, after the two-pronged efforts of won buyers and the Bank of Korea, the won exchange rate has been raised step by step, and by November 11, the won has risen to the 980 range, which is far from the important psychological threshold of 1,000 won per dollar after leaving the 990 range.
Although a lot of foreign exchange reserves have been used, Park Hee-rae feels that it is worth it.
In reports similar to those of the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, the Washington Post, and Bloomberg. South Korea's foreign exchange reserves range from $30 billion to $50 billion, and sometimes even the reported figures are not as good as those of Thailand, and South Korea itself has not publicly declared how much it has foreign exchange reserves, which has caused the market to be unclear about the amount of South Korea's foreign exchange reserves.
In fact, in addition to the IMF's three-month requirement to maintain foreign exchange reserves for imports ($36 billion), the Bank of Korea has a foreign exchange deposit of up to $30 billion, which together add up to $66 billion.
Even if this number is placed on a global scale, it is also a number that can be ranked in the top ten, which is one of the reasons why Park Hee-lai is full of confidence.
In total, more than $22 billion in foreign exchange reserves have been used in these days. Finally, the won was pulled back from the decline in one fell swoop. And, more importantly, the old guys from the Financial and Currency Regulatory Commission also agreed that the Bank of Korea would openly intervene in the foreign exchange market, which gave him a sense of power in his hands.
"Hmph, this is the evil result of the consortium behind them seeing the continuous depreciation of the won. That's why I had to convince these old fellows to agree to my public intervention in the market. After all, it's not pleasant to watch your debts increase day by day! ”
Inside a large office. Park Xilai was holding a thumb-thick cigar and said happily to his number one henchman Xu Youtian.
He saw very well that the members of these committees did not have their own opinions. To tell the truth, those people are just politicians and agents who rely on the old and sell the old, where do they know what academics and what laws of economic operation? To put it mildly, they're just a microphone.
Xu Youtian nodded silently, the communication with the committee members was carried out by him in private, although he was ordered by Park Xilai, but now that the whole credit is counted on Park Xilai, he is a little uncomfortable in his heart after all.
However, he quickly discarded this idea, after all, he was not the one who sat in that position, and after smiling, Xu Youtian said to Park Hee solemnly: "Mr. President, should we strike while the iron is hot and consolidate the achievements made before?" After all, yesterday was a rest day for the United States, and if the American side sells aggressively today regardless of the market, we will still be under a lot of pressure. ”
"Hmm!"
Park Xilai nodded, glanced at Xu Youtian approvingly, spat out a thick smoke from his mouth, and said, "Youtian, this task will be handed over to you." When the matter is over, I will definitely promote you well, this time thanks to you, otherwise I don't know what the situation is now! ”
Although the words of Zhiludao's boss were not reliable, Xu Youtian still showed an excited look very cooperatively, and said gratefully with a trembling voice: "President Xie Lu, I will definitely do my best and die." ”
Due to the long-term influence of Chinese culture, especially in ancient Korean high society, everyone takes pride in being able to speak Chinese or Chinese idioms. Although Koreans have made up the current script in order to de-Chineseize, the pronunciation of many words still adheres to the tone of Chinese. For example, if you listen carefully to the "Republic of Korea" in Korean, it is completely the pronunciation of Chinese, but the Koreans use Chinese characters to split and create a new language system.
Even though it has been a long time since it was de-Chinese, the Chinese language is still a symbol of their status among some scholars with advanced academic attainment, or among the so-called upper class. And people like Xu Youtian, who are single-minded and squeezed into high society, naturally learn a few Chinese idioms elegantly.
Hearing Xu Youtian's statement, Park Xilai was very proud in his heart, and his face turned into a flower, but he said hypocritically: "Youtian, we are both alumni and fellow villagers, who are you not to promote?" Don't say this kind of thing in the future, after all, we work in the government, and it is more taboo to form a party. ”
Like other East Asian countries, Koreans are particularly interested in their origins, which can be alumni, fellow villagers, or even living in the same community. It's strange that a Korean can be extremely cold and ruthless towards strangers, but with a little bit of connection, attitudes can change immediately.
Seo Youtian is Park Hee-lai's apprentice at Seoul University, and at the same time from the Busan area like him, this has become the relationship between the two, so Seo Youtian, who has just joined the Bank of Korea, immediately became Park Hee-lai's hardcore confidant.
Xu Youtian was grateful, and tears flowed out on the spot. Choked up and said, "President Park, you are really ...... It's been so good to me, like my reborn parents...... No, it's just that my biological parents are not as good as you! ”
Although the words were very sensitive, and even a little cold, Park Xilai was very useful, and swallowed the clouds and spit out the fog again, and then waved his hand and signaled Xu Youtian to go out.
Xu Youtian wiped the tears on his face, and bowed deeply to Park Xilai at 90 degrees. Only then did he face the direction of Park Hee-lai. Step by step, he retreated out the door. It was only when he reached the door that he stopped again, rolled his eyes a little, and then took a deep breath. Hesitantly, he said, "President." There's a thing...... Maybe you should know the way. ”
"Huh?"
Park Xilai, who was on the rise, was stunned. The fox glanced at Xu Youtian suspiciously, thinking that this subordinate actually had something to hide from him, thinking so. Looking at Xu Youtian's eyes, he suddenly became unkind.
Xu Youtian is also an extremely shrewd character, as soon as he saw Park Xilai's appearance, he immediately understood what he was thinking, quickly lowered his head, and said honestly: "President, in fact, this is how things ......"
It turned out that when Xu Youtian persuaded the old guys of the Financial and Currency Management Commission, not all of them agreed with the Bank of Korea's open intervention in the foreign exchange market. It's just that most of the old guys, encouraged by Xu Youtian's incorruptible tongue and ventilated with the consortium behind him, agreed to Park Xilai's proposal to openly intervene in the foreign exchange market.
After finishing speaking, Xu Youtian drooped his head, looking like he was at his disposal. When Park Xilai saw this scene, he couldn't bear to blame him anymore, just a few words of comfort, and let him go.
Speaking of which, Xu Youtian is also a little cautious, he has long seen that those old guys who are vegetarian are not pleasing to the eye, but they are in a high position, and they rely on the old and sell the old, even Park Xilai himself has to take care of three points, let alone Xu Youtian himself. This time, he just took this opportunity to give those old guys eye medicine, waiting for an opportunity to take a small revenge.
As the saying goes, "not in his position, not in his politics", in Xu Youtian's view, this is just a small incident, not even a turmoil, but Park Xilai, who has an extremely keen sense of smell, smells the smell of conspiracy from it, for no other reason, it is that Xu Youtian said that several old guys are members of the opposition party.
Although most of the Bank of Korea's Financial and Currency Management Committee are agents of the consortium that followed Kim Yong-sam to power, there are also many consortium agents who bet on the wrong treasure in the South Korean general election in order to balance the situation. These people usually don't take care of things, but Park Xilai, who knows their temperament very well, knows very well that if these people don't make a move, it will be a shocking event.
Clearly, they are brewing something!
But what could it be? After thinking about it for a long time, Park Xilai already had an answer in his heart, but this answer was too appalling and beyond his ability, so he could only look up to the sky and sigh, and sat on the sofa for a long time.
What is it that makes the president of a country's central bank feel helpless? This starts with the independence of the Bank of Korea.
Generally speaking, a country's central bank needs to maintain relative independence in order to be able to carry out monetary policy smoothly and sustainably, maintaining its continuity. Especially in the freer and more open markets the economy, the higher the demand for such independence.
For example, a president of the United States has a mediocre political performance and a ruined economy during his first term, and as a result, when his four-year term is about to end, he wants to seek re-election, and if he wants to be recognized by the voters, he needs to make some economic achievements. Or a certain president, with a short term of office left, suddenly had a convulsion in his head, and wanted to leave a good name in history, so in this context, he brazenly introduced a large-scale infrastructure construction plan to stimulate the economy, claiming to invest $4 trillion to build high-speed rail, steel factories and aircraft manufacturing bases in the United States. In this way, the beneficiary guilds and voters will inevitably vote for the president, and he will most likely be re-elected.
It's a political factor!
So what are the implications for the independence of central banks? The problem is that the scale of the investment is so large that it is unlikely that any candidate will be able to raise taxes during the re-election campaign, so the only financing options left are bond issuance and money printing.
These two options involve the central bank, and if the central bank Fed does not have independence, it can only be forced to print money under the influence of such political factors, and the result is soaring prices and inflation in the country. Rising prices in both nominal and real terms will eventually lead to dissatisfaction with the Fed's policies, demands for Greenspan's resignation, and so on.
And if the Fed were independent, Greenspan and his colleagues would have been able to reject such an unrealistic investment solution, because they would be responsible for the total amount of money in the United States, inflation and so on, and not to the president. And this hypothetical huge investment plan will also be stillborn because of the gambling on the financing channel.
In fact, in addition to political factors, there are many other factors that can influence the monetary policy of central banks, but political factors have the greatest influence and are the most profound.
In the final analysis, the greatest precaution against maintaining the independence of central banks is to prevent politicians from making arbitrary economic policies.
Compared with the developed countries in the West, the Bank of Korea just lacks this independence, not only lack, but even before Park Hee-lai came to power, there is no corresponding independent status at all, although it is still known as the central bank of South Korea, but the top leader is concurrently served by the Minister of Finance, and the Minister of Finance is nominated and appointed by the president.
Even now, although Park Hee-rae instructed traders to openly intervene in the market, he only did so with the approval of the Ministry of Finance, and if the decision of the Ministry of Finance was vetoed or stopped by the National Assembly, then no matter how much Park Hee-rae wanted to protect the won, he could only watch the won float freely in the market.
Once the protection of the Bank of Korea is lost, although there is still a daily fluctuation range of 2.25%, Park Hee-lai knows very well that in today's environment, this fluctuation range may be broken down in one day, and then it will be the death of the Korean won!
The reality is that the won dispute has become a partisan one, and judging from the performance of the old opposition guys in the Financial and Currency Management Commission, it is clear that they are ready to do something about the won and the Bank of Korea, and this kind of behavior cannot be stopped by Park Hee-lai.
That's why after he figured it out, he could only look up to the sky and sigh.
In fact, he blamed these people for thinking that they were simply demolishing the platform, when in fact the consortium behind these people was not only worried about the huge increase in debt due to the depreciation of the won, but also that at the current exchange rate, these consortiums were afraid that the Bank of Korea would intervene in the market and not sell more dollars for them to repay the debt.
It is important to know that many Korean consortia have one-year debts, and if they cannot buy enough dollars from the Bank of Korea at the current exchange rate, they will be forced to buy dollars from the foreign exchange market after the Bank of Korea is unable to protect the market, which they absolutely do not want.
Some of the consortia want the Bank of Korea to protect the disk, while the other part of the consortium opposes the protection of the disk with the psychology of "dead friends do not die poor", which seems to be contradictory, but in fact it is a selfish and self-interested behavior, and the power of the two sides will start a contest in the Korean National Assembly.
Park Hee-lai can only cry out in vain!
On this day, the won closed at 988.80 won to 1 dollar in the Asian trading session, up about 0.1 percentage points from the previous trading day, and the exchange rate of the won was raised to 982.50 won per dollar due to the strong intervention of the Bank of Korea, only to fall back to 6 won under the sell-off of the United States.
Although the situation is good, the market is still cautious about the South Korean won exchange rate, because the level of forward exchange rate contracts is still falling, of which the South Korean won January forward contract is quoted at the level of 1045/1050, and the one-year contract is quoted at the level of 1220/1260, the forward exchange rate discount is obvious, indicating that the market is not optimistic about the long-term market confidence of the Korean won. (To be continued......)