Chapter 472: The Great Avalanche (9)
Before the opening of the day, Goodman & Co. and Stanley & Co., two well-known American investment banks also expressed their views. Pen, fun, and www.biquge.info
Goodman said that the current China capital market has peaked, and there is no possibility of another upward rush in the short term, and it is recommended that investors throw out their chips as soon as possible to avoid the upcoming systemic financial risks.
Stanley said that now is not a good time to buy the bottom, and the index will fluctuate in the range of 3,250 to 4,600 points in the next year, ranging from 2% to 30% lower than the index in the previous trading day.
At the same time, both companies said that the government has no direct control over the market, and that even a further release of positive conditions will not mitigate the systemic risk of the market when trading volumes, leverage and valuations are already high.
The two companies issued a serious warning to the market in unison, which is almost equivalent to shouting in the ears of investors that danger is already looming, run for your life!
Since then, public opinion inside and outside has been unanimously unified, and the clarion call for the stock market crash has been officially sounded.
And on the capital market side is also quite powerful, as if in response to various blows in the market, as soon as the market plummeted more than 100 points, unmistakably to all investors to release a strong signal: the market's public opinion is not wrong!
Small and medium-sized investors were immediately frightened, and while some of them were still waiting, others began to sell.
However, there are still some strong investors who do not believe in evil very much. They naturally heard all kinds of rumors in the market, but in their hearts there is another interpretation of these news, that is, even if the financing order may be cleared, but the opening of the fall of more than 100 points has touched the level of the rebound after the last big fall, so even if there is a decline in the future, it will not be too serious, and there is a high probability of a rebound.
Based on their considerable funds, after a period of panic after the opening, there was a moment of shock in the market, and some of the retail sell-off was caught by them.
But soon, institutions quickly jumped on the frenzy of selling.
Although compared to ordinary investors, institutional investors are more rational and professional. But in this performance-only market, the net value in the short term can determine the fate of a fund manager, after all, not everyone is Xu Fei. So after seeing the temporary stability of the market, fund managers thought that their opportunity to make a move had come, and they began to join the sell-off.
They are generally not easily struck by market rumors, but the vast majority of them are well aware that the current market boom is not a rational boom, nor is it a bull market in the true sense of the word, but a brilliant bubble blown up by policy and enthusiasm.
No matter how big the bubble blows, there will eventually be a day when it bursts.
The ingenuity of fund managers is that they always see the situation, just as they know very well that a bull market is not a "bull market", but they still have to fight in such a market because they want to make as much profit as possible. But at the same time, they must avoid risks as much as possible, and not let their performance be as fleeting as fireworks.
In this process, they rely on their professionalism to escape the market before the avalanche.
But it's a pity that there are many people in the market who think like this, and when they think about it, the consequences are very serious.
The decline in heavyweights has been slow because there are so many institutions crowded into them, and some of them are ultra-long-holding, so they don't show so much of a decline in the index. But in the small- and mid-cap sectors, investors are scrambling to flee like the Dunkirk retreat.
Xishi.com, which is known for its theme among small and medium-sized market capitalization enterprises, and the market value has increased from billions to tens of billions in just two years, was directly smashed by a 5% price of up to 400 million yuan, and just when people have not reacted, another total value of 600 million yuan will be directly pressed on the fall limit, and it can no longer move.
Qinghu Hi-Tech, which has risen more than 30 times in a row, has created a wealth myth from a few yuan a share to 500 yuan a share.
The majority of medical care, because of the positive impact at the opening, the price was 5% higher than the closing price of the previous day, even when the market was shocked, it was not affected, all kinds of funds frantically chased this stock, and the stock price was close to the limit within half an hour. But just when there was still a line away from the limit, a single of up to 300 million directly knocked down all kinds of funds and directly sealed it on the limit limit.
……
The small and medium-capitalization sectors are like wheat fields that have been harvested, and the places they pass are in shambles. One stock after another fell, even the hottest theme stocks at the moment are no exception, the difference is only the length of time to struggle, but in the end, there was a sell-off without exception, and it was difficult to escape the fate of the final limit.
The sell-off in the small- and mid-cap sector soon affected the heavyweights, and although institutional investors are the majority in this market, human psychology is a very subtle thing, and some institutions and some large investors began to sell when there was a sell-off frenzy in the whole market.
The index soon fell, but not at a very fast pace, so to speak, slowly. By the time of the lunch break, I barely stood above 4,300 points.
In just one morning, at least 500 stocks have fallen to the limit, which means that the market value of these 500 stocks has evaporated by 10% in one morning.
The only consolation is that the heavyweights are not collapsing.
But soon the last straw that broke the camel's back came in the short hour of the midday break.
On this day, there was a very high-level financial meeting in Suhai, which was attended by the governor of the central bank. At noon, when the formal meeting was resting, a reporter stepped forward to ask the governor what he thought about the stock market. As the governor of the central bank, every word he says has a very big impact on the market, so the governor declined questions from reporters.
But when it reached the market, it became a different story: the governor looked solemn and nervous, and did not say a word to the reporters' questions about the stock market.
As soon as this news was released, it immediately became the focus of discussion in the entire market. In just an hour, people from all walks of life have interpreted the central bank's move, and there are various theories. One of the most popular of these narratives is that central bankers have nothing to do with the current stock market.
Indeed, reverse repo has lowered the expectation of interest rate cuts, and reverse repo is the best way that the central bank can take advantage of, because interest rate cuts or RRR cuts may cause exchange rate fluctuations, and the renminbi has been under tremendous pressure in overseas markets since this year. Other methods have not played a significant role in the capital market, and even the banking regulators, the Ministry of Finance, and even the highest levels of the government have no good solutions.
This is the most recognized view of the market.
This interpretation has brought the worst results to the market, and to a large extent, people have pinned their ultimate hopes on the government, because the role of the stock market has been repeatedly recognized in the authoritative media, which has led to a certain degree of thinking that the stock market boom is the result that the government wants. Now that the stock market is about to crash and the government has become helpless, it makes them feel like they want to cry without tears.
The confidence of the market has completely collapsed.
As soon as the afternoon opened, the index directly broke through 4,300 points, and the important threshold was declared lost with almost no resistance.
Fall! Fall! Fall!
This time not only the confidence of small and medium-sized shareholders collapsed, but even those experienced fund managers also had varying degrees of panic in their hearts, the central bank governor's non-statement made them lose their square inch, the biggest reliance has now become an uncertain factor, and the benefits of those reforms are likely to become a mirror flower, which makes them embarrassed.
Sell, sell as soon as possible, sell like crazy!
In the afternoon, various institutions also joined the sell-off army, and once the institutions sold off, the power of the sell-off is far from being comparable to small and medium-sized shareholders, each of which is a multi-million sell order, and the buying side rarely has such abundant funds. And the sell-off is not only concentrated in small and mid-cap stocks, but also in heavyweight stocks.
Of course, not everyone loses money. For example, in some stocks, an institution may enter the position at an average price of $5, and now the stock price is $55, then they can sell it at $50, and even then they will not lose money. But for new investors, a $50 position means that they may not be able to solve the trap for a long time, which will motivate them to sell their chips as soon as possible.
For institutions, it may be the amount of profit, and for small and medium-sized shareholders, it is the life.
But no matter what, once the panic starts to spread, there is no one in the market who is spared!
In the two hours of opening in the afternoon, there were as many as 1,000 stocks with a falling limit, and after the last two declines, a new high was set again, and in terms of the index, 4,200 points also began to falter.
In terms of the index of the small and medium-sized market capitalization sector, it is to complete the continuous heavy blow from 3278 to 3200, then to 3100, and then to 3000.
However, even so, the decline has not stopped.
At 2:45, fifteen minutes before the close, the decline reached its worst level, with the main board index falling below 4,150 points, and the small and mid-cap index approaching 2,900 points.
The number of stocks that have reached the fall limit has reached as many as 2,000. You must know that in the entire market, the total number of stocks is only about 4,600. This means that more than 40% of stocks have a limit of decline before the close of the day.
Fortunately, at this time, the market finally recovered some rationality, and taking advantage of the last transaction, some daring funds also took the opportunity to rush in, hoping to take advantage of the low price to absorb some chips and grab a part of the rebound. And some institutions and retail investors have also begun to enter the market to grab chips, hoping to reduce their average price through such operations.
Under the domination of the power of grabbing the rebound and lowering the average price, the market finally slowed down the decline, and rose slightly, and finally at the close, the index stabilized at 4192 points, 334 points less than the previous trading day, and the entire market value fell by 7.40%.
In the small and medium-capitalization index, it fell by 8.91%, although it was not much different from the largest decline of 9.01%, but it is a little gratifying that the decline was finally controlled within the range of the beginning of 8.
This is the largest single-day decline in the history of China's capital market, which is unprecedented. Soon, after the closing was over, someone shouted out the "6.26 tragedy".
The performance of the market shocked everyone, and for a time the topic of the stock market swept all social occasions.
Soon, a high-profile, stock-specific conference took place over the weekend. (To be continued.) )