A little bit of an idea about the stock market lately.

Originally, since last year, I have been seeing all kinds of good news in the media and newspapers, such as "IPO registration system", "The Belt and Road", "state-owned enterprise reform dividends", etc., these news, together with the ulterior motives of funds, have promoted the formation of this round of bull market.

Although there are various explanations for the causes of the bull market, I personally believe that the current leadership wants to use the financing role of the stock market to provide "blood" (liquidity) to enterprises to promote industrial transformation and upgrading. Of course, it is not impossible to save China's economy.

However, under the instigation of public opinion, the market gradually lost control, and the stock market began to become crazy and more full of risks. The average GEM PE of more than 100 is the best example. In this case, the rise of the index that deviates from the real economy will not be able to "transfuse" as the management hopes, but will brew a bubble. In fact, it is true, and the stock bubble is chilling.

In the final analysis, the whole people speculate in stocks, but the original intention of the stock market design is never to find someone to take over. After the stock approached and broke through 5,000 points, the major shareholders of listed companies began to reduce their holdings, which is a clear signal that the main funds are going to escape.

There are also various rumors about the fall. The root cause is that the China Securities Regulatory Commission wants to control leverage, because it is already a market consensus that there is a bubble everywhere at 5,000 points. As soon as the news of the strict investigation and clean-up of capital allocation came out, it immediately caused a violent shock in the market.

Matching money, in fact, is borrowing money. It is divided into on-site and off-site. The on-site borrowers are various brokerages, which basically borrow money in accordance with the ratio of 1:1, that is, the leverage is 2, while the over-the-counter umbrella trust and the Hang Seng HOMES allocation system provide a 1:3 allocation plan with a leverage of 4, which is not within the supervision, and the danger is great.

The original intention of the SFC was to remove this part of the funds from the market. However, as soon as the signal of clearance was issued, coupled with negative factors such as the frequent reduction of holdings by executives of listed companies, the index fell rapidly.

The downside of using leverage is that once the market falls, it is easy to form a stampede. That is, if you fall wildly, you still can't close your position, and you can only be liquidated in the end.

After 4,000 points, perhaps the management believes that the decline is enough, and has cleared this part of the funds out of the market. But in fact, this is not the case, because there is a stock index futures, so that some short positions who use leverage to buy stocks can still make money when they fall, because the leverage ratio of stock index futures is higher than 4 times the leverage of stocks.

The IF300 and IC500 are their battlegrounds, especially the latter, which is simply a heavenly existence.

IF300 corresponds to the large market, weight, and blue chips. IC500 corresponds to the small and medium-sized board and the gem. The former is $300 per point and the latter is $200 per point. The former had a high of 5,400 points and a low of 3,363 points, a difference of 2,037 points. The latter has a high of 11,585 points and a low of 5,900 points, a difference of 5,685 points. Convert it into RMB and see how much each order is worth?

Profit-driven, crazy shorting!

The decline in the stock market is not in line with the original intention of pushing the market up in the first place, and secondly, it has a certain impact on social stability. Speculation is rampant, which has endangered the safety of the financial system and harmed the interests of ordinary shareholders (this sentence is nonsense). Under such circumstances, it is a good means for the state to choose to rescue the market, stabilize the financial market, and rectify the trading order.

Massive funds enter the market to buy, and at the same time compete with the bears in the IF300 and IC500 markets, this is the strategy of the national team.

According to CFFEX, on July 2, the IC500 market reached its peak with a daily trading volume of 500,000 lots. Remember, this is despite the frequent good news from the country, and the bears are still so rampant. After the persecution on July 3, the national team had to come out with real money to fight them.

On July 6, although the stock market opened higher under various favorable conditions, the bears still resisted stubbornly, and as a result, they came out of the market high and low throughout the day, which was simply a slap in the face.

In this regard, the exchange and the regulatory authorities have successively released news, including the prohibition of short-selling (naturally, it also prohibits long-selling), the increase of listed companies' holdings and other five good choices, Huijin announced the details of positions, invested in the small and medium-sized board, increased the margin of the futures index, and severely punished malicious shorting. On July 8, Huijin increased its holdings of more than 30,000 lots of IF300, forcibly pulling the broader market index and various constituent stocks at the same time, and finally stabilized the downward momentum.

On July 9, Huijin closed more than 30,000 long orders. The market closed the IF3001507 (main contract) 23,660 contracts throughout the day. The bears conceded defeat on a certain course and ran partially.

The stock market is booming!

But the matter is far from over, there are still about 70,000 contracts on 1507, and nearly 8,000 contracts were lost again on the 10th. Although there was another sharp rise on the 10th, the bears suppressed the equal weight of Minsheng Bank at the end of the session, and the purpose was still very clear and suppressed the index.

Next Friday, July 17, the delivery date of 1507 months, it is believed that in the coming week, the index will fluctuate frequently, and the connection between the spot market and the futures market continues. It will be interesting to see what the final situation will be.

One last question, about who are the bears? This question is difficult to answer, but it is the least likely for foreign investors, because the QFII funds that enter legally are strictly monitored, and the CFFEX has also issued a statement to check the futures index positions held by foreign investors, which are basically within the scope of hedging. So all kinds of conspiracy theories lack theoretical basis.

The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. Finally, I hope that all book friends can vigorously support this book, subscribe more, collect more, vote more monthly tickets and recommended votes, thank you~

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