Originally, Zhong Shi's first reaction was that Zhong Shi was using his own funds, especially the funds of the Tianyu Fund, but after repeating the so-called capital transfer several times, he understood that the funds invested in the Russian bond market would definitely not be Zhong Shi's own funds.

Since it will not be its own funds, it is very likely that Zhongshi will use its own funds to borrow, which naturally needs to take into account the issue of interest rates. On Shijie today, which currency has the lowest interest rate, the truth of the so-called "capital transfer" is about to come out.

Zhong Yi hesitated for a moment because he immediately thought of another problem, namely the exchange rate. Because this part of the funds invested in Russian bonds must be US dollar capital, Zhong Shi's borrowing funds with his own funds will definitely not be US dollars, because he has US dollars in his hands, and there is no need to do this at all. Since it is a different currency, it is necessary to consider the exchange rate.

But when I think about the yield of Russian government bonds, I suddenly realize that at this time, Russian inflation is extremely strong, and even dollar-denominated bonds usually have coupon rates of more than 30%, and these are only the interest rates on short-term bonds with a maturity of half a year.

Compared with this interest rate, it is inevitable to seek a currency with a low exchange rate and a low exchange rate. In this case, the yen is naturally the first choice for borrowing.

After a bubble economy of '91, Japan implemented three different policies to stimulate the sluggish economy, including the start of large-scale infrastructure construction, the implementation of extremely loose monetary policy, and direct investment in foreign countries. Among them, the interest rate on the yen was lowered to 0.5% for a one-year period in '96. It's already equivalent to lending money in vain.

In terms of the yen exchange rate, after 95 years of trade negotiations between Japan and the United States, the yen, which has been rising continuously, has also begun to gradually fall, from the highest price of 80:1 to the level of 100:1, and stabilized within a certain range.

In this case, borrowing yen at an almost free loan rate, then exchanging it into dollars in the foreign exchange market, and then investing it in the Russian government bond market, which has a very high rate of return, has become the most popular investment method among hedge funds. Compared to the annual rate of return, which can often be as high as 30% or even 50%, the exchange rate fluctuation of the yen against the dollar is nothing at all.

"Yen. Is that right? "In the end, it's about macroeconomics. After a little thought, taking into account almost all the influencing factors, Zhong Yi gave his own answer.

"Not bad!" Zhong Shi nodded approvingly and continued with some emotion. "It's really thanks to the opening of the Russian capital account. Otherwise, we would not have such a haode investment opportunity. ”

In 96 years. With the so-called "shock therapy" going on, Russia has also duly opened up its capital markets. Although foreign investors have direct access to the Russian market, due to the accumulation of inflation and the fact that the capital account is not open. As a result, few foreign investors are willing to hold rubles. In this context, the Russian government has introduced government bonds denominated in US dollars to attract foreign capital investment.

At this time, even the people in the government authorities in Russia were reluctant to settle salaries in rubles, because it would mean that the salaries received would soon depreciate. You know, since 91, the ruble has depreciated by about 50% every year, and even exaggerated years to 100%, although it has not yet reached the point where burning charcoal is not as good as burning paper money, but this hyperinflation is already very rare in modern society.

"yes, it's unbelievable that the rate of return is so high." Zhong Yi also sighed, then remembered something, and asked puzzledly: "With such a high rate of return, isn't Russia's national debt very risky?" ”

An annualized rate of return of 30%-50% is an exceptionally high level of return for any financial market and any financial product, and it is difficult for most hedge funds to achieve such a rate of return.

As the saying goes, the greater the risk, the greater the reward. Since the rate of return is so high, the risks involved are also very high. There is no such thing as a pie in the sky, and this truth is very clear.

But for hedge funds that are biased, or even extremely risk-averse, this is the place to make a difference. What the? Risk-averse? Then it's better to buy U.S. Treasury bonds, the yield is only the benchmark rate, and there is almost no risk at all.

"Yes! The stakes are very high! Default can happen at any time! Zhong Shi touched his smooth chin and nodded, obviously agreeing with Zhong Yi's point of view, "In my opinion, the Russian national debt is a Ponzi scheme!" ”

"Ponzi scheme?" Zhong Yi was stunned for a moment, and then a thoughtful look appeared on his face, "It won't be so serious, it's better to use a country's credit as a guarantee, and it shouldn't be easy to default." ”

The Ponzi scheme they call is an extremely well-known scam in the financial field. The people of Pounds "invented" it, so it is also called a Ponzi scheme in Southeast Asia.

In fact, the principle of this scam is very simple, that is, to lure investors with a big investment goal as bait, promising high profits in return. Since this investment does not exist, there is no return, and the investor's profit is paid out of the principal of the next group of investors who enter the market. When the first investors saw the high profit returns, this investment model and reputation spread, and the effect of this is that more investors will invest their money in this non-existent investment goal.

In Chinese idioms, Ponzi schemes are typical of "tearing down the east wall to make up for the west wall", or "empty gloves and white wolves".

This scam requires a steady stream of money to sustain it, and once the funding chain breaks, the scam will immediately manifest itself. The "Madoff scheme" of later generations is a typical Ponzi scheme, and the people who have been deceived even include many celebrities on Wall Street, and even those who are themselves top bankers.

Naturally, the issuance of Russian government bonds is aimed at raising financial funds, the essence of which is not the same as that of a Ponzi scheme, but it is quite possible that the principle of operation is already somewhat similar. In the midst of Russia's sluggish domestic economy, it is unlikely that its fiscal revenues will be able to sustainably support the issuance of bonds with such high interest rates, and in such a situation, it is inevitable that the new bonds will be used to repay the principal and interest of the old bonds.

This vicious circle will one day lead to a situation where the funds raised by the new bonds are not enough to repay the principal and interest on the old bonds, and the interest can be repaid. If even the interest cannot be repaid, then even if the Russian government credit is used as a guarantee, it will have to declare default.

Although some investors can also be aware of similar risks, but the 30%-50% return rate is here, and they can't help but not enter the market to gamble, which is a typical fluke mentality, everyone thinks that they are winners, and never thinks that they are the ones who lose.

When Zhong Shi talked about the Ponzi scheme, Zhong Yi realized how serious the problem was. Although Russia's economy has been sluggish in recent years, the so-called skinny camel is bigger than a horse, you must know that the former Soviet Union has been a powerful country that has been breaking with the United States for nearly half a century!

"It's really hard to say!" Zhong Shi shook his head, "I have decided to withdraw my investment in the Russian bond market. Because in the event of default, the debt restructuring will basically be wasted. ”

The state does not go bankrupt, this is a famous saying. But in reality, the state is really going bankrupt. In the near future, Argentina will go through one or even several bankruptcy processes, and in the process of Zuihou debt restructuring, most of the creditors will be required to reduce the debt by 80%, that is, 80% of the investment is not wanted, and finally the Argentine government will pay the remaining 20% of the debt amount to these creditors.

One of the things that surprised Shijie was that a hedge fund in the United States did not agree with the Argentine government's approach and chose to take the Argentine government to court, and the lawsuit lasted for ten years without any results. In this case, the hedge fund actually saw the opportunity and detained a warship belonging to the Argentine government in a certain port, which shocked the entire Shijie.

Naturally, these are all for later.

While the risk aspect of withdrawing investment from the Russian market is certainly a factor, Zhong Shi said, but more importantly, the currency crisis that will sweep the entire Southeast Asian region is about to occur. The crisis not only swept across Southeast Asia, but eventually turned into a catastrophic financial crisis. U.S. capital has taken advantage of the economic problems in Southeast Asia to teach these countries a very vivid lesson in money in the countries whose economies have only taken off for a few years.

When he heard that Zhongshi was going to withdraw from the Russian market, Zhong Yi was relieved. The two brothers looked at the blue sea and fell silent for a while.

"Brother Fei, I heard that you have made a fortune in Thailand recently, do you want to bring your brothers with you?" Just when the Zhong brothers were enjoying this moment of tranquility, an untimely voice suddenly sounded.

Zhong Shi couldn't help frowning, looked towards the place where the voice came from, and found that at some point, several young men wearing colorful shirts and thick gold necklaces around their necks were walking in his direction. A few people talked as they walked, talking rudely and loudly, and along the way, the people around them were stunned. And a few people turned a blind eye to this, and still shouted loudly to themselves, for fear that others would not know what virtue they were.

Before the four of them walked in front of Zhong Shi, an upstart aura rushed towards them, making Zhong Shi's originally towering brows furrow a little deeper. (To be continued......)

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