Chapter 430: The First Blow
Not to mention the matter of Soros, after Jiang Shan publicly appeared at the auction of Italian government bonds, the capital markets around the world smelled a smell of conspiracy. Pen | fun | pavilion www. biquge。 info
In the sterling crisis of '92 and the Asian currency crisis of '97, Soros bore the brunt of the stand-up and made a statement, which in turn led the entire world's capital to attack the currencies of these countries, and finally achieved the desired results. This is the herd effect in the capital market.
For the current international capital, Soros is afraid that it does not have much appeal. In the place of the Quantum Fund is the Tianyu Fund, a new force that seems to outsiders to rise almost suddenly. However, in the upstream capital circle of Europe and the United States, the name of Tianyu Fund has long been like thunder.
This time, there are generally two views among these capitals: first, Tianyu Fund wants to use the power of global capital to achieve the goal of breaking down the Italian or Spanish government bond market; The other is that the Tianyu Fund wants to take action against the euro with this action.
Regardless of which of these two ideas is true, there is at least one point of agreement that there will be wild volatility in the capital markets of Spain and Italy, and even in the euro market.
As long as there is volatility, it means that there is the possibility of profit. Of course, there is also the possibility of losing money.
Soon, capital from all over the world began to act.
On the day of the appearance of the Tianyu Fund, during the intraday trading time in Europe, Italy's five-year government bonds rose sharply by 23 basis points, and the yield on 10-year government bonds rose by 19 basis points. However, there was a rebound at the end of the day, which narrowed the decline to a certain extent.
However, in the next two trading days, the price of these two maturities continued to fall, although not by a large amount, but for three consecutive days fell by 5% of the face value, leaving the market in a rather tense state.
At the same time, the Italian stock market also saw a certain degree of decline, with the FTMIB three-day cumulative index falling by 2.25%, and the trading volume also showed a sharp decline, indicating that investors have a wait-and-see attitude towards the market in the future.
At the same time, a similar situation is emerging in neighbouring Spain.
Three days later, Standard & Poor's downgraded Italy's long- and short-term sovereign credit rating from BBB/A-2 to BBB-/A-3, which is just one notch higher than the "junk" rating.
As the eurozone's third-largest economy, Italy's downgrade is undoubtedly a major blow to the country's government. In the report, S&P noted that the Italian economy is plagued by a number of headwinds, including high unemployment, declining demand from its European neighbors, and a lack of domestic consumption.
In addition, Standard & Poor's upgraded Ireland's rating in the report, which is the second time in nearly six months that Standard & Poor's has upgraded Ireland's sovereign debt rating. Although it is five notches below the top AAA rating, the A rating with a stable outlook is still quite satisfactory.
As soon as this clear statement was issued, it immediately caused an uproar in the market.
Although it was already Friday, the Italians seemed to be prepared for this, announcing through a court in the small southern town of Trani that they would sue officials of rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch for allegedly manipulating the market by downgrading Italy's sovereign credit rating during the European debt crisis.
In addition to legal threats, Italy's economy minister has also publicly come out and expressed his displeasure with S&P's approach, saying, "Italy's reform program has had positive results...... It remains to be considered how quickly the reforms will have the desired effect...... We are very resolute in moving forward with our reform programme, which is clearly reflected in the labour market reforms we have adopted. So we have a different view [with the S&P]. ”
At the same time, he said that it would be unfair to adjust Italy's credit rating to this point.
The two sides met almost immediately, and the news immediately attracted the attention of the whole world, and more and more people turned their attention to Italy.
On the other hand, the euro also fell to varying degrees, affected by Italian and Spanish government bonds.
……
"How do you need me to help you now?"
Ivana looked at Zhong Shi with a complicated expression, the man in front of her was able to make the global financial markets fluctuate with just one piece of news, this magic made her feel extremely shocked, although she had long expected Zhong Shi's ability, but now she still couldn't believe what she saw.
She has been by Zhong Shi's side for the past few days, acting as a bridge between him and the German side. But unfortunately, so far, Zhong Shi has not used her chess piece, although the German side has asked several times.
"What?"
Zhong Shi was lying comfortably in the chair and pretending to sleep, and after hearing Ivana's voice, he didn't react for a while, and after opening his eyes, he asked in confusion, "What did you just say?" ”
Ivana suddenly couldn't cry or laugh, and the admiration in her heart for the little bit of admiration that Zhongshi had just risen disappeared, and she asked again angrily at the moment.
"Women are so complicated!"
Seeing Ivana's face change, Zhong Shi muttered to himself in his heart, then coughed lightly twice, and pretended to say, "Of course it can help." At this time, shouldn't the Prime Minister come out and say a few words? ”
Ivana was speechless again, this guy was so arrogant that he actually called the female prime minister around, and didn't treat her as a national leader at all.
"I need her to stand up and show the market that Germany is not going to help the Italians!"
Zhong Shi didn't know that Ivana was slandering herself, but still said to herself, "In this case, the market will despair in Italy, and I want to achieve the goal further." ”
"I'll give it a try!"
Ivana didn't know about the agreement between the female prime minister and Zhong Shi, so she could only reluctantly agree, and at the same time asked puzzledly, "During this period of market fluctuations, it seems that you are just observing, not acting." I don't understand, what the hell are you doing here? ”
She had been observing all this time, but to her disappointment, since her debut in the United States, Zhong Shi had given Tianyu employees a holiday, even overseas. The office area, which was usually crowded, is now empty, and no one can see it except the cleaning aunt.
"I don't have to do anything!"
Zhong Shi spread his hands and replied with an innocent face, "I'm going to a party, a dinner party, a trip, there are many things to do." Life is too short, so why waste all your time at work? There's no end to the money! ”
"Cut!"
In the face of this hypocritical statement, Ivana unceremoniously raised her middle finger at Zhong Shi.
She didn't believe it.
"You know I have an agreement with you, so it's not right to make a move at this time!"
After saying all this, Zhong Shi touched his nose and smiled, he also didn't believe what he had just said. After thinking about it, he said with a straight face, "As for the matter of getting the prime minister to say a few words, it must be done, this is the beginning of my overall plan, and it is very important." It's about Europe's ability to get rid of speculators completely, and it's about my freedom, understand? ”
"What the hell do you want to do?"
Ivana's curiosity was thoroughly aroused. If she had been able to see some of Zhong Shi's actions before, this time she couldn't see it at all.
In the past, she was able to speculate on Zhong Shi's motives through the direction of the operation of the Tianyu Fund, but this time, the funds of the Tianyu Fund were not moving, which made her have no clue at all.
"You'll find out later!"
After a vague answer, Zhong Shi stopped talking.
This disappointed Ivana.
However, she still honestly conveyed Zhong Shi's request to Berlin, and a scene that made her feel unbelievable appeared, and the female prime minister was silent for a long time after listening to it, and finally said "I know".
Ivana knew very well what this sentence meant, which meant that the female prime minister agreed to Zhongshi's request. She didn't know what was going on between the two, but she knew exactly what it meant.
Then, on Sunday, the prime minister said countries like Italy and Spain needed extra measures to ensure their 2015 budgets were in line with the European Commission's rules. The implication is that countries such as Italy and Spain have not met their austerity programmes and need to continue to do so.
These words were met with the help of the Italian Secretary for European Union Affairs, Sandro Brown. Goetz's return fire. He said it was not yet Germany's turn to "label" the economic performance of its other eurozone neighbors. He also believes that Germany should focus on its own problems and stimulate economic growth in the region more.
Suddenly, Germany, the eurozone's largest economy, and Italy, the third-largest economy, tore apart without warning, much to the surprise of many market watchers.
You must know that at this time, it is the time for Europe to unite, especially these countries with a very heavy economic weight, and only by uniting together can we get through this difficulty. Who doesn't want them to express different opinions in public, which creates a huge destabilizing factor in the market for the prospects of the euro.
Italy's 10-year government bonds fell in response to Monday's opening, with yields rising to 6% in just two hours, the highest since 2007. At the same time, the euro fell 3% against the dollar, also hitting a new recent low.
Many of them expressed cautious optimism about the outlook for the eurozone, but also said that it is better not to enter these markets in the near future, including the intensification of political risks.
Step by step, the situation is moving towards what Zhongshi had envisioned. (To be continued.) )