Chapter 260: The First Stage of Europe's Counterattack (1)

The price of gold did not reach its lowest point on this day, and on February 5, the price of gold continued to fall, and at one point broke through the $1,050 mark at its low. However, due to the strong appearance of the main bulls, the price of gold finally stood firmly above $1050.

After this global market crash, Tianyu Fund once again absorbed more than 100,000 long orders in two days of market operation, so that their strategic purpose was basically achieved.

Over the next few days, as the panic gradually eased, the gold market, like other capital markets, began to slowly recover.

However, all this is no longer within the scope of the main operation of the Tianyu Fund, after more than a week of high-intensity work, Zhong Shi and Jiang Shan are exhausted, and after a good rest for two days, they reappeared in the office on February 8.

"What should we do next?"

Jiang Shan was very excited, he had a sense of accomplishment because he had taken his advice in the previous two days, and at this time he came up to Zhong Shi and asked flatteringly, "Is there anything else I can help with?" ”

"Help?"

Zhong Shi smiled, his eyes took off the computer, he looked at Jiang Shan with a smile, held his head in his hands, lay down on the chair behind him, and teased, "Tell me, what can you help with?" ”

"This ......"

Jiang Shan was speechless for a while, and then replied cheekily, "I know a little bit of everything, you know." ”

"Good!"

For his very perfunctory answer, Zhong Shi rarely did not refute and continue to ridicule, but pointed to the computer screen and said, "There is really something now, you can take a look first, and then tell me what you think." ”

"What?"

Jiang Shan was also taken aback. His eyes involuntarily glanced towards the screen, but he kept muttering in his heart, "What the hell is going on?" ”

In Zhong Shi's mailing list, an email is lying there quietly, and it is obvious that this is what Zhong Shi wants to show Jiang Shan. Jiang Shan just read a few words, and his originally smiling face suddenly disappeared. After glancing at Zhong Shi with a complicated gaze, his face gradually became solemn.

"What does that mean?"

After a full ten minutes, Jiang Shan let out a long sigh and asked hesitantly, "What does the person who published this report mean?" ”

"That's what you understand!"

I don't know when, Zhong Shi lit a cigarette and said leisurely, "Goodman's company was thrown out, at least what it did before." was thrown out. ”

"Where did this email come from?"

Jiang Shan pointed to the screen and asked, "Something to do with Europe?" ”

"If it is sent by the United States, it will be published in the newspaper tomorrow!"

Zhong Shi replied lightly, "Not only the United States, but also the Financial Times." And once this matter is discovered, I am afraid that the European side will not stop so easily, and maybe Goodman will be held legally responsible. ”

"So serious?"

Hearing Zhong Shi's words, Jiang Shan gasped. "Will they do it?"

"Probably so, but it depends on what happens. But what will happen in the end, who knows? ”

Zhong Shi's face suddenly showed a smile, and he laughed, "This time, they found the wrong target, and with a company like Goodman in front of us, we are very safe!" ”

"This ......"

Jiang Shan couldn't laugh at all. After looking at Zhong Shi for a long time, he suddenly sighed, "How did they do it?" ”

"Currency swap agreement!"

Zhong Shi continued to smile, "I believe that Goodman, when making these agreements. It will inevitably be done cleanly, at least without a single flaw in law. If they are determined to get into trouble with Goodman, I'm afraid it will take a year or two! ”

"But how do they do it?"

Jiangshan was still mired in the so-called "currency swap agreement", and he did not realize the meaning of Zhong Shi's words for a while.

It turned out that in that email, there was a press release that was about to be published. The main thing is that between 1999 and 2000, because of the need to help the Greek government reduce the debt ratio of the euro in order to join the European Union. Goodman, a well-known Wall Street investment bank, helped the Greek government design a series of complex agreements to restructure the Greek government's debt, and finally meet the criteria for eurozone countries to join the country.

In the press release, the author boldly predicts that this series of operations may be in violation of eurozone law and involves the use of accounting standards. And for a decade, neither Goodman nor the Greek government disclosed relevant information on their balance sheets or sovereign balance sheets, which may have involved the issue of moral responsibility for concealment.

Ten years have passed, but the author is still unrelenting, even attributing today's Greek debt crisis to the covert operations of Goodman. He also hinted that perhaps today's debt crisis is the work of big Wall Street capital.

Clearly, Europe is looking for the root causes of today's debt crisis, and the first to target is Wall Street's famous Goodman & Co.

This is also the reason why Jiang Shan's face has changed greatly, and he smells a sense of crisis from it.

"According to my guess, these agreements are not too difficult, but they are just VAM agreements that use the foreign exchange market."

Zhong Shi said in a flat tone, slowly explaining, "After the official appearance of the euro, some countries have not only borrowed at home, but also financed in foreign markets. Strong currencies like the yen and the dollar will definitely be favored by the Greek government. ”

"But the problem is that when the Greek government decided to join the eurozone, the size and proportion of their foreign exchange debt on hand had to be reduced, which is a hard rule in the eurozone. If they don't, they won't even be eligible to apply. So in this case, they had to turn to some investment banks to help. ”

"At that time, the EU rule was that if the debt was not hedged, it would be converted into debt in euros based on the exchange rate at the end of the year. At that time, because the European Union had just been formed, there was not much demand for new currencies, which directly led to the strengthening of major currencies such as the dollar and the yen. ”

"If you calculate it purely at the year-end exchange rate. As a result, Greece's debt will fall short of EU standards. But the problem is that the exchange rate fluctuations throughout the year will inevitably not be based on the exchange rate at the end of the year, so there is a lot of room for maneuvering. Based on this feature, Goodman developed a currency swap agreement when the euro was exchanged for USD/JPY to a certain point. At the end of the year, they exchange this part of the debt at a fixed price. ”

"On the other side of the agreement, of course, Goodman helped them convert their foreign currency debts into euro debts, but they may have to suffer a little bit in terms of exchange rates, so you understand? That is, regardless of the change in the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar or the yen, the Greek government will be able to exchange this part of the foreign currency debt at a relatively stable exchange rate, but what will happen in the end will depend on the performance of the foreign exchange market. ”

"For Goodman, they not only have a high probability of earning this part of the foreign exchange difference, but also can earn a certain amount of agreement fees from this agreement. If the year-end exchange rate is lower than the lowest of the VAM agreements, the agreement is a win-win situation. And the bigger the scale, the more Goodman makes money. But if the exchange rate fluctuates within the range they agreed upon, then Goodman would have lost money, but they would have been able to get a negotiated fee, so it's hard to say whether they would end up losing money. ”

"I see!"

Jiang Shan finally understood, "What are the similarities with the foreign exchange contract of CEFC?" ”

"Yes, but it's different!"

Zhong Shi went on to explain, "After all, it is a sovereign state that deals with the other party. So an unequal contract like CEFC Pacific is impossible, even if it's Goodman. They do not dare to offend a sovereign country easily. ”

The CEFC Pacific incident that the two mentioned occurred more than a year ago, when the red-chip company CEFC Pacific suffered a huge foreign exchange loss. At that time, in order to cope with the losses caused by the fluctuation of the Australian dollar in the company's business, CEFC Pacific signed a VAM agreement with HSBC, Citigroup and other banks for a period of one year.

Originally, CEFC Pacific was to lock in the exchange rate of the Australian dollar, but the situation of the Australian dollar changed significantly during the year. From strong to weak. After breaking the boundaries stipulated in the contract, CEFC Pacific had to continue to buy the depreciated Australian dollar in accordance with the terms of the agreement, and finally did not disclose it until it was really uncontrollable, and by this time CEFC Pacific had already suffered a huge loss of 15 billion Hong Kong dollars.

The incident caught the attention of the whole of Hong Kong at the time, and eventually ended with the resignation of the company's founder and managing director and the acquisition of CEFC Pacific by the parent company. Although the whole thing was resolved satisfactorily in the end. But it also gave all investors a heavy wake-up call that the VAM agreement is really terrible.

But in any case, even Goodman would not dare to do such a thing to a sovereign country, even if they were bold, after all, Greece is still a country in the European zone, no matter how bad it is.

In fact, Goodman is indeed bold, and perhaps they would not dare to do it in Europe and the Americas, but in Africa, where there is chaos and the absence of the rule of law, they did. In an African country, a sum of money was entrusted to Goodman, but in just a few years, the fund shrank by 95%, and the leader of that country was so angry that he wanted to teach Goodman a lesson.

"The reason why they didn't do it was because of legal problems, and secondly, because in the eurozone at the time, there were other countries that asked them to help, so they ......."

Tapping on the table, Zhong Shi pouted, a smile on his face, "Not only Greece, but also Spain, Italy, and some other country. So I have to say that this counterattack of the EU may, to some extent, accelerate the outbreak of problems in other countries faster! ”

"And what about this matter?"

Jiangshan's focus is not on this, but still on Goodman, "If they are sued, will there be a drop in stock prices?" Are we thinking that we can short some of their stocks? ”

"It's not necessary!"

Zhong Shi waved his hand, "We are now on a honeymoon with the United States, there is no need to offend them with this profit." And Goodman is certainly deeply involved in the European debt crisis, and I don't believe they did anything. Now is the time to come up with a scapegoat, but I'm sure Goodman will have a way to deal with it. ”

"The meaning behind the whole thing is that Europe has begun to be vigilant, although it is only a part, but in the next step their capital and public opinion tools may be activated, and they will make every effort to eliminate the negative influence of public opinion brought by the United States. The real battle really begins! ”

"The whole thing is getting more and more fun!"

Zhong Shi walked to the window, looked at the still prosperous port, and sighed sincerely, and at the same time, what appeared on his face was an expression of eagerness. (To be continued.) )

PS: Thank you to the book friend Lao Nafa for stepping into the air and apo11o for the monthly pass! Continue to work hard to update, I hope you will vote more for the author's hard work that has not been interrupted, and I hope that more book friends will actively recommend and collect more, thank you~