Chapter Ninety-Six: Empty Compromise
On Tuesday, May 24, the two sides regrouped and started a new round of contest again, on this day the bulls once rushed the price to $2335, and the bears also once suppressed the price to $2262, and finally the two sides reached a compromise at the opening price of $2288, which fell by $10 from the previous trading day, and the disk pulled out a cross-candlestick chart.
On Wednesday, May 25, the two sides repeated the situation of the previous trading day, the disk still presented the shape of a cross, the two sides reached a balance at the $2,274 position, and the number of trading lots reached 90,000 hands, 10,000 more than the previous trading day, and the two sides have reached some kind of intangible consensus on this price, that is, the option bears will close their positions at such a price.
Sure enough, the price of copper futures hovered above $2,300 for other trading days in May, neither rising sharply nor falling for long, and finally before the arrival of June, the short positions converted by these options were gradually closed.
No one knows exactly how much money the options bears lost in this battle, but Zhong Shi roughly estimated that he made less than $100 million in floating profits throughout the month of May, and the other bulls were about the same number, believing that the losses of the bears in the whole month of May were around $1 billion.
……
Entering June, Zhongshi began to gradually close the near-month contract, and at the same time buy a small amount of long-term contracts in the far month, gradually pocketing the floating profit, this process may continue for a while. Zhong Shi didn't do much to operate.
From June 1 to June 6, Zhong Shi closed about 17,000 contracts in June, with an average price of about $2,242, and added $43 million to his account, which is real money, but before he could cover the heat, Zhong Shi put the money into the spot copper market and delivered about 800 lots of spot copper, making his current storage of spot copper have reached about 40,000 tons.
40,000 tons of spot copper are put on the futures market for less than 2,000 lots. It cost Bell Stone $100 million in cash. Among them, the funds for delivery account for ninety percent, while others such as management fees, warehouse rental costs, delivery costs, etc. account for the other one.
Andrew was puzzled by Jongshi's move, and simply believed that there was no need to hoard copper at all, because the copper futures market was very liquid. The daily trading volume is at least 50,000 lots. No matter how large a position is, it only takes a week to clear all of them.
Zhong Shi was noncommittal about his thoughts. There was no need for him to explain his intentions to Andrew. And most of this part of the funds comes from Skyline Financial Company, and only a small part is the capital of Tianyu Fund.
……
Monday, June 6. When the Sumitomo Trading Company traders confirmed that all the options shorts were empty and left, they immediately shouted in the trading floor regardless of their image, and some even took off their shirts in excitement and poured champagne on their shirtless bodies to celebrate.
After a month of fierce fighting, they finally forced the new entry of more than 40,000 hands of options shorts to finally cut their positions, in addition, there are some of the main bears also chose to admit defeat at this time, so that the average loss of the entire settlement of shorts in May exceeded $200 per hand, according to the estimation of Sumitomo Trading, the recent short losses alone reached as much as $300 million.
Of the $300 million, Sumitomo Corporation earned nearly $100 million, accounting for 30% of the entire settlement amount, which is enough to shock everyone. Behind it is the result of the collaboration between Yasuo Hamanaka and his team.
"Hamanaka-san, what should I do next?" While many low-level traders were still celebrating wildly, Kenjiro Oshima came to Yasuo Hamanaka's office, and when he saw that the heavyweight who had a pivotal position in the market still had a flat expression on his face, he put away his smug expression and changed to a businesslike tone.
"Seeing such a fiasco of bears in May, the market will not react enough?" After a moment of silence, a smile finally appeared on Yasuo Hamanaka's face, "I have made up about 10,000 lots of long positions recently, and you should know what to do with the rest!" ”
In the Jihua of Yasuo Hamanaka, forcing the short option to admit defeat is only the first step, in fact, in the mid-May rally, the view on the June copper futures has changed, and the initial news he got is that the price of long options in June has skyrocketed, but even so, the trading volume of options has shown signs of amplification.
Most importantly, the fundamentals of the market have supported the price of copper in the future, and as the entire Shijie economy recovers, the demand for copper, one of the most important raw materials for infrastructure construction, is also rising, while the prices of other non-ferrous metals are also rising. According to Hamanaka's preliminary estimate, the price of copper should be around $2,500 per ton, which is still a long way from the current $2,200.
Sumitomo Corporation's positions are held in different proportions depending on the distance of the month, while the rest are selected in the month with the best liquidity and the highest trading volume. This time, it closed with its rival in the early June contract, and the remaining positions began to move to the copper futures in the second half of June and July.
"......" When Kenjiro Oshima heard Yasuo Hamanaka's words, he was stunned in his heart, and then he reacted, it turned out that all this was already in Yasuo Hamanaka's jihua, not only that, Yasuo Hamanaka had already put the follow-up into action.
As soon as he thought of this, a cold sweat broke out on the back of Kenjiro Oshima, he was very glad that he was following Yasuo Hamanaka, if he wanted to go against this Mr. Tong, I am afraid that he would not even know how to die.
"In addition to these, I also found that there is another bull in the market that is quietly building positions. You have to pay attention to the recent market, I can't be sure if this bulls are the same shili that suddenly closed their positions some time ago, but they have enough funds to disrupt the situation, which we have to guard against! Seeing that Kenjiro Oshima's reaction was a little sluggish, Yasuo Hamanaka didn't think so, and after giving Oshima half a minute to react, he continued.
After hearing Yasuo Hamanaka's words, Kenjiro Oshima reacted from his sluggishness and hurriedly agreed: "Yes, minister, I will pay attention." ”
……
In the U.S., the Quantum Fund was also celebrating internally, but they waited until after the market closed to have a small party because they had to continue trading the next day, but even then, the traders got drunk and left the strip club.
Druckenmiller wasn't with the traders, in fact he was still holding relevant investment meetings with the department heads to plan the next step of the trader.
"According to our information in London, it was Sumitomo Corporation's funds that forced options shorts some time ago, and they made a big gain this time, some say more than $100 million." One of the inquiring directors detailed what he had heard from London, while the others listened attentively.
"Is there any news on their next move?" Druckenmiller frowned, and then asked. However, after he asked this sentence, he felt that something was wrong, like this kind of news, there are news on the market every day, and most of them are chasing after the wind, and they can't be taken seriously at all. Even if there is some credibility, top-secret information such as operation direction, strategy and specific positions is absolutely impossible to leak.
Sure enough, the supervisor who was questioned shook his head, indicating that he hadn't received any information about it.
Seeing this reaction, Druckenmiller's face became a little more solemn, although in the last few trading days, the quantum fund has not raised the price of copper in a big way, but took advantage of this time to close out a lot of previously established long positions, but the price of copper futures has not fallen too much, which makes him a little more in awe of the copper futures market.
This time they also made a profit of more than 100 million US dollars, but this is far from enough to make up for the previous losses caused by the foreign exchange market, but in terms of other financial products, the quantum fund has also made a lot of gains, and the situation is slowly improving, and Druckenmiller is still facing a lot of performance pressure.
After listening to macroeconomic analysis, non-ferrous metals and energy, Druckenmiller decided to continue to go long on the copper market, for reasons similar to those of Yasuo Hamanaka in London, but there were other killer features that he did not use in his trading jihua.
"We have flattened a lot of contracts in June, and the earnings continue to be invested in the expiring copper market, and according to our research report, the current reasonable price of copper should be around US$2,400 to US$2,600 per tonne, and the market still has a lot of room to rise. My personal view is that we still have to be firm longs until July, when the US economic data for the second quarter comes out. Druckenmiller finally set the tone for the meeting.
The two giants coincidentally made the same decision, which also determined the trend of June copper futures to some extent.
On Monday, June 6, the price of copper futures closed at $2,248, and with the large-scale unwinding of contracts in May and early June, the longs and bears began to wrestle with the contracts in mid-to-late June and July.
As a result, on June 7, the price of copper futures rose by $40, on Wednesday, June 8, the price of copper futures rose by $87 again, and on Thursday, June 9, copper futures rose by $15 again, and the intraday price once reached $2,415, and finally closed at $2,390.
However, this large-scale increase is no longer Zhong Shi's business, after closing the June contract, he only added part of the position to the July contract, because he can no longer see the future trend, which also missed this crazy rise. When Zhongshi reacted, the bears also began to suppress the price of copper futures, and the two sides began a new round of stalemate. (To be continued......)
PS: The author will try his best to write haode, I hope you will support a lot, xiexie~