41. Testing the Stock Market (1)
Not far from Ye Zifeng's rented house, there is a park, there is a mountain in the park, every morning at five o'clock Ye Zifeng will get up and go to a hidden place in the park to meditate and practice, the kung fu Ye Zifeng inherited by the old Taoist master has not fallen in the deep market, and it is getting better and better.
After practicing every day, Ye Zifeng will come to the securities company on time, he will personally clean his big room, Ye Zifeng also bought a pot of fortune trees and put it in the wealth position of the big house, and drenched it every once in a while. Then he began to read the "Securities News" and "Special Zone Daily" of the day, which is a compulsory course for Ye Zifeng every day. As a shareholder, you must understand real-time financial trends and policy news every day, so as to grasp the direction and timing of investment or speculation, and become a qualified investor, Ye Zifeng thinks so, so he did so.
Ye Zifeng decided to start with the Shanghai market, as for why he chose the Shanghai market, because the pattern of Shanghai strength and weakness has been continuing in the stock market, and grasping the trend of the Shanghai index will grasp the trend of the entire stock market.
Ye Zifeng found from the Shanghai K-line chart that since the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets canceled the limit on the rise and fall in the first half of the year, the Shanghai market soared by 177% in that month, the turnover was also enlarged to 2 billion, and the index rose from 445 points to 1234 points to close. The Shenzhen stock market, like the Shanghai stock market, has also experienced a sharp rise in stocks. After this round of policy surges, the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock indices have undergone sharp downward adjustments, and the index has fallen back to its original rising position.
Subsequently, Ye Zifeng found through the Shanghai weekly K-line and monthly K-line that the Shanghai and weekly K-line had been in the yin for 10 consecutive years, and the monthly K-line was also in the yin for 4 consecutive years. According to the principle of prime numbers, when the trend of a stock index is continuous in one form, the probability of a change in the prime number of days is very high.
Prime numbers are very mysterious in mathematics, this number is not divisible by any other natural number except 1 and itself, there are infinite primes. Such as 1, 3, 5, 7, 11, etc. They are a group of magic numbers, and there are many conjectures about them, and the very familiar Goldbach conjecture is one of them. Goldbach's conjecture is a conjecture about prime numbers that Goldbach mentioned in his letter to Euler in 1742. China's Chen Lao proved the establishment of "1+2" in 1966. Most of us' perception of prime numbers is also known in the country's propaganda for Chen Lao.
In the stock market, there is a theory that the role of prime numbers in stock trends, after a stock trend lasts for a period of time, when the prime number of days is encountered, the probability of changing the disk is very large. For example, when a stock is continuously closed in the positive or continuous negative, when the prime number of days is encountered, such as the 3rd day, the 5th day, the 7th day, and the 11th day, then the probability of its change is very large, especially the longer the continuous time, the higher the probability of change.
Now, Ye Zifeng found that the Shanghai weekly K-line has been 10 consecutive yin, and will then meet the prime week of the 11th week, and the Shanghai monthly K-line is also 4 consecutive yin, and will also meet the fifth prime month. Under the resonance of two prime numbers, the probability of a change in the stock market is already very large.
From the analysis of technical indicators in the market, the market index after a continuous decline, many technical indicators are passivated, some indicators even appear at the bottom of the divergence phenomenon, Shanghai weekly K-line after 10 consecutive yin, the MACD green column did not elongate with the decline of the index, but with the index falling in shortening, KDJ in the K, D, J values are below the bottom 20, and in the area of many golden crosses, the indicator has been completely passivated, the index along the BOLL lower rail fall, did not fall below the lower rail, Instead, BOLL has closed its mouth and is showing signs of stopping. On the daily K-line of the Shanghai market, the decline is getting smaller and smaller, and the 5-day moving average is beginning to flatten, and the 10-day moving average is about to have a golden cross. All indications indicate that the probability of a bottoming out and rebounding of the broad market index is very high.
The stock market is an unpredictable market, and no one can be 100% sure of whether the market will rise or fall in the future, but can only say how high the probability is that it will rise or fall in the future. If someone tells you that the market will rise or fall in the future, and says how much it can rise or fall, that person is either a liar or a god.
When the probability of something happening is only 50%, you can wait and see. But when the probability of it happening is 80% or higher, you're all set to go. Ye Zifeng is such a person, when he confirmed that the probability of the stock market changing and rising was already very large, he decided to go all out.
After determining the most likely trend of the Shenzhen and Shanghai indices in the future, what Ye Zifeng has to do now is to select individual stocks, Ye Zifeng's criteria for selecting individual stocks are small circulation, relatively low prices, earnings per share are not losses or slight losses, and there are signs of bottoming out in the near future.
If the stock circulation is small, the circulating market value is also small, and in the case of limited funds in the stock market, it is easy to get the speculation of the market maker.
If the stock price is low, there is a lot of room for growth, and it is easy to attract followers, which is conducive to market speculation.
If the stock earnings per share is not a loss or a slight loss, it is easy for the dealer to collect chips, and it is easy to shuffle the market, so that when the dealer pulls up the stock price, and then releases various favorable news through the company and other channels, such as turning losses into profits, profits and other benefits, then the follow-up market will rush in, thereby reducing the cost of pulling up, or the dealer can also take advantage of the good shipment.
According to this stock selection idea, Ye Zifeng selected three stocks from the self-selected stocks on the computer, one Shanghai Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., one Shanghai Machinery, and one Shanghai Textile Machinery. These three stocks have fallen from the high level of Shenzhen and Shanghai due to the liberalization of the price limit, and have fallen to around 50 yuan, especially Shanghai Iron and Steel shares in the first two weeks There have been obvious changes, after hitting a record high of 319 yuan, and then falling to a new low since the fall, the amplitude is huge. In the end, Ye Zifeng locked his first stock in Shanghai Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.
Through a few days of observation of the Shanghai stock index and Shanghai Iron and Steel shares, the bottom signs are becoming more and more obvious, Shanghai Iron and Steel shares have obviously stopped falling above 50 yuan, 5 antennas have signs of upturn after many days of flattening, 10 antennas have also flattened, as long as the stock price of Shanghai Iron and Steel shares does not fall in the past two days, 5 antennas will cross the 10 line to form a golden fork, and the possibility of stock price rise has greatly increased. So, Ye Zifeng decided to absorb in batches around 51 yuan, Ye Zifeng also had patience to absorb chips, mostly a few hands, a few hands from time to time to buy, soon, Ye Zifeng's hundreds of thousands of funds were used up in one day, and the cost was attributed to 51.83 yuan.
After the full position, what Ye Zifeng needs to do is to wait patiently, he spends most of his time watching the changes in the market, and when he has time, he also goes to the retail investor hall on the first floor to sit for a while, feel the atmosphere of the stockholders, and listen to what the retail investors are thinking? Do what? In this way, you can also refer to your own investment decisions.
Luo Qingxue arranged Ye Zifeng after arranging Ye Zifeng, she would unconsciously observe Ye Zifeng every day, she found that Ye Zifeng's activities were very regular, and she arrived at the sales department on time every day, although there were cleaners in the big room every day, but the first thing Ye Zifeng did after coming every day was to clean the big house again, and then carefully read the "Securities News" and "Special Zone Daily" provided by the business department. When the market opens, he is quietly watching the market in the big room, and at noon he eats the box lunch fast food provided by the sales department, after the market closes, he will also listen to the analysis of the market trend of the day by the analysts of the sales department, the biggest difference between him and other personnel is that others will get together to play poker or chess after the market closes, and he just stays quietly for a while, and then leaves the sales department.
After the market closes every day, Luo Qingxue checks Ye Zifeng's trading records for the day through the background, although this violates the discipline of the securities company. But Luo Qingxue still couldn't help but check.
For a few days, Luo Qingxue found that Ye Zifeng didn't have any deals, and Luo Qingxue was a little surprised. In the past, as long as those stockholders entered the stock market, they could not resist the temptation of stock ups and downs, and they would buy and sell impatiently, and would not have any movement like Ye Zifeng. Luo Qingxue watched Ye Zifeng enter and exit the sales department every day, calm and confident. Sometimes, they will chat when they meet, but they are limited to their views on the stock market, and they consciously or unconsciously avoid talking about previous things.
After the market closed on this day, Luo Qingxue, as before, checked Ye Zifeng's transaction records through the background, and she found that Ye Zifeng bought Shanghai Iron and Steel shares in batches and at multiple prices today.
Luo Qingxue also pays attention to the trend of the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets every day, and through technical analysis and referring to various policy and economic data, she believes that if the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock market index points are not at the bottom, they are not far from the bottom.
Therefore, she pointed out in the internal investment strategy report of the business department that at the current index point in Shenzhen and Shanghai, you can actively go long, you can buy stocks in batches, and wait for the recovery of the market. But because of the continuous decline in the Shenzhen and Shanghai market, her report naturally did not get attention, in the business department, the most optimistic view is also at this point, the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock index will have a weak rebound, but because of the weakness and difficult to return, so the rebound is highly limited, for large funds, can provide little room for operation. Therefore, Luo Qingxue's analysis report was naturally not analyzed and explained in the daily after-hours analysis.
Today, Luo Qingxue saw Ye Zifeng, who had been silent for many days, suddenly buy stocks in full positions, and felt the same as the hero, as if he had suddenly found a confidant.