The second month of the Australian Shofan Sutra speaks of the summer of laughter. Heaven is the same as the source of the omen, the blue sea and the blue sky. The breeze was breezy, and although the temperature outside reached a level of more than a blade, Zuo Jiang lying under the beach umbrella did not feel a trace of heat, and on the comfortable recliner, Zuo Jiang sucked cold juice. While flipping through the annual financial report of Harry Potter Financial Investment Company.

Harry Potter Financial Investments Company after several years of high development. It has become a first-class economic empire, investing in oil, natural gas, mining, steel, metallurgy, automobiles, petrochemicals, electronics, music, real estate, hotels, media and film and television entertainment industries, and has branches or representative offices in strong countries and regions around the world.

After three years of construction and meticulous polishing by Simon Construction, Paradise Island has completely transformed from a desert island into a paradise on earth. After graduating from Columbia University with a Ph.D. in economics a year ago, Zuo Jiang spends most of his time here, with his special office in his villa on the island, and an elite team dedicated to him, and the electronic office allows him to understand the direction of the world economy and command his economic empire remotely without leaving home.

Hu Xiaoya, who was dressed in white and dressed in a white dress, came to Zuo Jiang's side with a stack of documents in her hand, she put the documents on the table next to Zuo Jiang, and said, "This is the latest economic situation analysis report in Southeast Asia. I feel very abnormal, you see, something might happen! ，

Hu Xiaoya trained for three years at the Harry Potter Iron Ore Group in Western Australia. The assistant general manager has been promoted to the position of deputy general manager of the group, after the completion of Paradise Island, Zuo Jiang played her over and served as his special assistant and office director, and she led my elite team to collect and sort out all kinds of information for Zuo Jiang. And form an analysis report for Zuojiang's decision-making. At the same time, Zuo Jiang's instructions were also conveyed to various companies through her.

Zuo Jiang opened a can of juice and handed it to Hu Xiaoya, picked up the report casually and read it, the report began with an analysis of the economy, and in the late era of the blade, Japan began to build its global supply chain. Raw materials were obtained from Asian countries, then cheap parts were purchased, and finished products were sold mainly to the United States, then Europe and the rest of the world. The expansion of the manufacturing supply chain is sometimes referred to as the "flying goose model." Japan is like the lead goose, followed by the "Asian Tigers." South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, followed by the "Four Little Tigers" Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia, and finally China's Big 6. However, the flaw of this system is that the supply chain network has two currency standards: the US dollar and the Japanese yen.

After the bubble economy, Japan's economy has been stagnant until now. In the year of the Goo Niu, the stock market fell to its lowest. for martyrdom. Land and real estate prices have fallen sharply in some places. It is estimated that during the introduction of the year, Japan's wealth reached trillions of yen, close to 27 times the total amount of Japan. There are two noteworthy events in Japan: first, despite the doubling of the value of the yen. The structural current-account surplus with the United States has not disappeared, and on the whole it still averages $100 million per year. Second, there was almost no inflation during this period.

In Japan, deflation brought about by the disappearance of the bubble just after the year. Three fundamental policy responses have emerged.

First, government funds are injected into infrastructure to stimulate the economy. Japan has the healthiest fiscal system among OECD member countries. As a result of tax cuts and fiscal spending, there is a fiscal deficit equivalent to the total gills of the concave body every year. This situation has continued to this day.

Second, Japan has implemented an accommodative monetary policy at the same time. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has gradually lowered interest rates from the annual bailout to zero, creating a golden opportunity for arbitrage forex trading, where foreign investors are able to borrow yen at zero interest rate and invest in high-return assets. The original arbitrage forex trading focused on investing in U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds. As Asian currencies maintain a stable exchange rate against the US dollar but have a higher rate of return, arbitrage forex trading is also becoming increasingly important in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia.

Third, because Japan wants to stimulate its economic recovery while avoiding being overvalued, after the bubble economy. Substantial introduction of foreign direct investment in the yen, bank loans and bond investments, including official assistance and loans in yen terms. It was Japanese bank loans and massive yen outflows that created the conditions for the economic bubble in East Asia and the subsequent financial crisis.

Although the Asian financial crisis began on July 2 marked by the capture of Taimei on July 2, Zuo Jiang knew that the root cause of all the curses was buried in Japan.

In the year of Goo, two major events occurred in Japan: first, the Kobe earthquake on the day of the moon; On the other hand, from March to April, the yen began to depreciate against the dollar after reaching a peak of 8o:. The depreciation of the yen stimulated exports, leading to a slight recovery in the economy in the past six years. At the same time, Japanese banks are beginning to take advantage of the weaker yen to recover their overseas loans. Due to Japan's miscalculation of the economy, the VAT rate is strong by 3 liters. leading to a fragile economy and a re-rumbling four-horn; Heavy recession.

So far. Japan's severe recession and its fragile banking system, the rapidly expanding Asian economy, fueled by foreign short-term loans, and the massive asset price bubbles that generated them, all set the stage for the collapse of the Asian financial edifice in July of that year.

There are two common criticisms of the Asian financial crisis, both focusing on the four crisis-stricken economies of Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea and Malaysia. The first view is that the blame lies with the victims, with their poor risk management and "crony capitalism". The second view is that: The Asian financial crisis stemmed from the banking panic. Both are correct, but most economists focus either on Asian countries other than Japan or on Japan as a whole, and few refer to both. The economic landscape is studied together.

Before the Asian financial crisis, investors from Japan and abroad, including Japanese banks and various hedge funds. The use of foreign exchange arbitrage trading in and out of the East Asian countries has become an important inducement for the outbreak of the financial crisis.

The essence of the yen carry trade is to borrow yen at a very low interest rate and invest in the US dollar or Thai capital. to obtain a higher interest rate than the Japanese yen. If the yen depreciates against the dollar, then there is a double benefit: interest rate differential gain and exchange gain.

Since then, the interest rate differential between the U.S. federal funds rate and the Bank of Japan's target rate has been around the same time, and at that time, the Japanese yen's overseas loans to Southeast Asia were roughly estimated to be in U.S. dollars. This means: The average spread gain in the JPY FX carry trade is about $100 million per year. And for the next three years. The yen has depreciated by nearly half against the dollar, so that the average exchange income of the dollar's overseas loans is $100 million. Conservative estimates that investors in the yen carry trade have obtained a huge "pie" of both billion dollars. ”

Due to the large inflow of yen capital into Southeast Asian countries, emerging markets have the fatal danger of "double mismatch". The first is that the Southeast Asian market "borrows for the short term and invests for the long term." The second mismatch is the mismatch of "lending foreign currency, US dollars or yen, and investing in the national currency". That is, there is a bad lender and there is a bad borrower! Both sides are at fault. The intrinsic reason for the Asian financial crisis is that Southeast Asian countries do not have good country risk management, and Japanese banks are based on their own reasons. From this, the withdrawal of regional loans led to the outflow of most of the capital from Southeast Asia, but it was the trigger for the financial crisis in Asia.

Japan's banking sector is in big trouble due to the huge amount of non-performing loans in the country. The problem began to manifest itself in March of the year of Gollum. At that time, two credit unions in Tokyo exposed bad debts of two dollars, most of which were leased to real estate companies. And these are very vulnerable regional banks and credit unions. It is also linked to the large "main bank" through the "main banking system", when the small bank goes bankrupt. The big banks are also starting to suffer. The decline in the Japanese economy and the yen exchange rate since the beginning of the Goo year has had a huge negative impact on the entire banking system.

Since the capital of the Japanese banking sector is Tier 2 capital, which consists mainly of the unrealized value of equity portfolios, they are subject to two opposing pressures. On the one hand, stock prices have fallen since the beginning of the year due to the economic slowdown and the withdrawal of foreign investors due to the weakening of the yen. On the other hand, a weak yen has increased the yen value of dollar loans. Both factors have weakened the ability of Japanese banks to reach the capital adequacy ratio of the eight.

At that time, the only way to meet the capital adequacy requirement was to reduce overseas lending. The Nomura Research Institute estimates that if the yen remains at the level of the dollar and the stock market remains at the cutting point, then Japanese banks will need to reduce the initial trillion yen in loans. This is equivalent to a Japanese concave one. Name. If domestic loans are not cut, there will be only a significant reduction in loans abroad. Japan's reduction of loans to Southeast Asia was the beginning of the financial crisis.

Read the report. Zuo Jiang rubbed his somewhat astringent eyes, closed his eyes and thought about it, Soros is undoubtedly the promoter of the Asian financial crisis, and the United States has adopted a policy of turning a blind eye to its own economic and strategic interests, and let him do whatever he wants. After the capture of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, it immediately pointed its finger at Hong Kong, which had just returned to the embrace of the motherland, and although the Hong Kong government, with the strong support of the motherland, repelled the international speculative institutions with Soros as the leader, it also suffered heavy losses. You have to do something in the midst of a crisis!

At this time, the mobile phone on the table rang, Zuo Jiang picked up the phone and saw that it was Jenny calling, and immediately picked it up: "Quantum Fund has just contacted us, and they think it is profitable to invest in Taiquan." Want to join forces with us again to short Taimei and would like to ask your opinion. ”

Than Khan. Due to a temporary business trip to study and visit for three days,These few times have not been updated.,Just hurriedly said hello in the book friend group.,Most friends don't know about this situation.,I'm really sorry.,I'll code out this chapter when I get home today.,There's another chapter tonight.。 The time may be later, and friends who can't stay up late can watch it again tomorrow.