Beijing Xiangshan Park issued an announcement yesterday saying that in order to strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic, Xiangshan Park will further strengthen the flow restriction measures. According to the relevant person in charge of the park, "once the instantaneous passenger flow is high, we will link up with the territory, and arrange personnel to persuade tourists to return at the far end such as Xiangquan roundabout and under the mountain." ”

In order to avoid the gathering of people and ensure the health and safety of tourists, Xiangshan Park will further strengthen the flow restriction measures and implement remote control with the territory. The closed indoor areas in the park and the scenic spots with relatively small spaces, such as Biyun Temple, the former site of the Xiangshan Revolution Memorial Site, Xiangshan Temple, Zhiyuanzhai, Qinzheng Palace, Jianxinzhai and other scenic spots, continue to remain closed.

According to the relevant person in charge of Xiangshan Park, the flow restriction measures will be dynamically managed and will be adjusted accordingly according to the instantaneous passenger flow. "Once the instantaneous passenger flow is high, we will link up with the territory, and arrange personnel to persuade tourists to return at the far end, such as Xiangquan roundabout and at the foot of the mountain. At present, there are very few tourists in our gate area who buy paper tickets, and the electronic tickets that have been purchased can be refunded at any time. We also advise visitors to stay at home as much as possible, or travel off-peak. ”

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic at the beginning of the year has had an obvious impact on the tourism industry, which is characterized by sensitive industries. Previously, when we thought about the future development of China's tourism, we rarely took into account unexpected social factors, such as the impact of the epidemic on China's tourism trend. From the perspective of forecasting, this is an uncontrollable problem, a black swan event. So far, most of the tourism academics and domestic media are optimistic about the impact of the epidemic on the impact of tourism economic growth. It is generally believed that there is no need to worry about the negative impact of the pneumonia epidemic on China's tourism, for example, the first year in 2003 did not drag down the tourism growth of that year, and the annual tourism growth rate was only 13% lower than that in 2002, while in 2004, the national tourism growth rate was as high as 24%.

Using the results of the tourism economy in 2003 and 2004 after the outbreak of the epidemic 17 years ago to predict the negative impact of the epidemic on the tourism economy, the analysis used is a comparative research method, which is logically reasonable. The comparative research method is a commonly used analytical method in economics. However, when we use this method to analyze the impact results, we must consider the size of the tourism economy, the tourism development cycle, the structure of the tourism economy, and the scope and timing of the impact of the epidemic in two different periods. Only by taking these factors into account can we make accurate and rational judgments about the negative impact of this epidemic. Taking into account the above factors, the socio-economic environment in which the two epidemics occurred is different, and the impact on tourism is also different.

First of all, the size of the tourism economy is different. In 2002, China's GDP was 10 trillion yuan, and the national tourism income was 600 billion yuan; Seventeen years later, in 2019, China's GDP will be nearly 100 trillion yuan, and the national tourism income will be nearly 6.5 trillion yuan. At the end of the epidemic, it is not easy for this large-scale tourism volume to rebound with a retaliation or a high-intensity recovery. We can expect that at the end of the epidemic, tourism will have a relatively large rebound, but the amount of this rebound and the tourism demand formed are very different from the scale and volume of tourism in 2019, which we must be fully prepared for.

Secondly, the development cycle of the tourism economy is different. Tourism development is subject to the international economic environment and the tourism economic development cycle

This has been proved by a large number of statistical studies and the practice of tourism development in various countries, and has also been fully proved from the theoretical research of tourism demand. In 2003, China's tourism development was in a better international environment, China's accession to the WTO, so that China's economy into the world economic development, the acceleration of international commodity trade activities, the flow of people in international commercial activities, hedged by the negative impact of the epidemic. In 2003, there were 32.97 million inbound overnight tourists and 8.89 million foreigners, in 2004, 41.76 million inbound overnight tourists and 13.65 million foreigners, an increase of 26.66 and 53.66% respectively over 2003, and in 2005, 46.8 million inbound overnight tourists and 16.41 million foreigners overnight traveled, an increase of 12.1% and 20.2% respectively over 2004. At present, the international environment in which China is located is different from before, and the downward pressure on the economy and the slowdown in international trade have restricted the growth of China's inbound tourism. In 2017, China's inbound overnight tourism was 60.74 million, of which 22.48 million were foreigners, an increase of 2.5% and 3.8% respectively, and in 2018, China's inbound overnight tourism was 62.9 million, of which 23.64 million were foreigners, with a growth rate of less than 3%, and the statistics in 2019 have not yet been released, but according to the statistical analysis in the first half of the year, the growth rate of the two indicators has also been maintained at the level of 2018, and there will be no big growth. The above analysis, we can clearly see that this year compared with 2003, the international environment for tourism development is different, directly reflected in the growth rate of inbound overnight tourists and foreigners, in 2003, the growth rate of the two indicators is in a high growth and development stage, the average growth rate is about 15%, after 2015, these two indicators are in a low-speed growth stage, the average growth rate is below 3%, the tourism development cycle is different, It determines the difference in the impact of the epidemic on tourism.

Third, the form of tourism is different. In 2003, the main body of tourism in China was sightseeing tourism, and the tourism industry chain was relatively single, basically a sightseeing tour with travel agencies as the core. This single form of tourism and tourism industry chain, there are two obvious economic characteristics, one is the single form of tourism and the industrial chain, the tourism economy involves relatively few industries, nothing more than airlines, travel agencies, scenic spots and hotels, tourism has little impact on the social economy, and it is relatively easy to recover; Second, due to the single form of tourism and the industrial chain, the main players in the market are very clear, and the government can formulate targeted policies to quickly solve the pain points and difficulties of tourism enterprises to cope with the impact of the epidemic, and it is relatively easy for the government to rescue. Different from 2003, after 17 years of development, China's tourism form has become increasingly rich. Tourism is no longer a single form of sightseeing tourism, in addition to the traditional sightseeing tourism, vacation tourism, leisure tourism, business tourism, research tourism, technical tourism, pension tourism, sports tourism and sightseeing tourism together constitute China's tourism type system. We all know that tourism demand determines tourism supply, and tourism type determines the tourism industry chain. When the type of tourism expands, the tourism supply and tourism investment will also expand, and the tourism industry chain and the type of tourism enterprise organization will also increase. Under the development stage of a variety of tourism types, the organizational form of tourism enterprises will be richer and more diverse. Scenic spots, resorts, B&Bs, tourism complexes, hotels, travel agencies, OTA platforms, passenger transport, performing arts, tourism bases, agents, tourism investment companies, tourism design companies, etc., the penetration and association ability of tourism to the entire social and economic industry is constantly strengthening, and the influence is increasingly amplified. Tourism enterprises located in different industrial chains have different needs for government rescue. Tourism enterprises with the main body of labor ownership expect the government to increase efforts in labor security policies, and tourism enterprises with the main body of capital ownership expect the government to make a breakthrough in financial policies

The different needs of different enterprises have increased the difficulty of government rescue.

Finally, the overall environment for tourism consumption is different. After the epidemic, the strength of the tourism rebound and the degree of recovery depend on the consumption environment. This year's tourism consumption environment is different from 2003, mainly manifested in the following three aspects: First, the family debt ratio is different, in 2003, China's family debt ratio is only 5%, the lower family debt ratio, means that the actual disposable income level of the family is high, providing a guarantee for the expansion of tourism consumption. However, in 2019, China's household debt ratio reached 55%, and the debt structure is different from that of the United States, which is mainly consumer debt, while China is mainly rigid debt, and house loans and car loans account for a large proportion. After the epidemic, while the income of most households has decreased, these rigid liabilities must be repaid on time, which can only be achieved by compressing flexible tourism consumption spending, which limits the economic space for tourism rebound; Second, the cost of living is different. In recent years, China's family living costs, education expenditures, and parenting costs have been greatly increased, and these rigid costs have also restricted the level of tourism consumption. The third is that the disposable travel time is different. The time and scope of the epidemic in 2003 were relatively small, but the scope of the epidemic involved the whole country, and it lasted for a long time, the Spring Festival holiday continued to be extended, and the school opening date was constantly postponed, which greatly occupied the working time and study time. It is conceivable that after the epidemic, in order to make up for the loss of work and study time, employers and schools will greatly shorten the holiday time and summer vacation time. In this case, the free time of tourists will be greatly reduced, thus weakening the strength and magnitude of the rebound in the tourism economy.

Objectively speaking, the negative impact of this epidemic on the tourism industry will far exceed that of 2003. According to the current situation in the battle against the epidemic, if it is controlled and stabilized in March, by the end of April, the country's tourism market will gradually recover optimistically, and the loss of tourism will also be huge. Without considering other factors, we can make the following rough judgments; First of all, the total amount of tourism, in 2019, the total annual tourism revenue of the country is roughly 6.5 trillion yuan, including domestic tourism and inbound tourism, if domestic tourism begins to recover in May, inbound tourism begins to recover in September, taking into account the demand time factor and consumer expenditure factors, the annual tourism revenue will not exceed 4 trillion yuan, compared with 2019 tourism revenue roughly less than 2.4 trillion yuan to 2.8 trillion yuan, compared with 2019 will form a negative growth of 35% to 40%; From the perspective of the cycle of China's economic development and the natural development law of the tourism market, it will take about 13 to 15 months for the tourism industry to recover to the scale level of 2019 in the second half of 2021; The second is the tourism market structure, that is, the recovery of the three major markets of domestic tourism, outbound tourism and inbound tourism, domestic tourism, especially short-distance tourism, takes the lead in recovery, outbound tourism recovery takes a certain amount of time, and the recovery of inbound tourism takes longer; The third is the form of tourism, natural sightseeing tourism is the first to start, cultural, entertainment and venue sightseeing tourism is relatively slow to recover, research tourism, performing arts tourism, cruise tourism is more difficult to recover, and lasts longer. At the same time, there will be a big growth in vacation tourism and natural health tourism; The fourth is the tourism space, urban tourism will have a large-scale decline, rural tourism will have a large increase, of which the country house tourism recovery is faster. From the perspective of tourist destinations, areas with large natural geographical scales, such as Xinjiang, Tibet, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and areas with less serious epidemics such as Guizhou, Yunnan, Jilin, Ningxia, Shanxi, and Hainan, will have a big recovery in tourism, or even a big development, while the surrounding areas centered on Wuhan and the Yangtze River Delta region will recover relatively slowly;