As for the reasons for the conflict between Mongolia and Yuan, Zhao Yu was able to basically restore the truth of this conflict because of the height of his position, the diversification of information sources and channels, and the way of thinking that was different from that of people in this era, so that Zhao Hao could basically restore the truth of this conflict, and also let him find out the current psychological state of Yuxi Timur and Ma Shao, and then predict the situation and intensity of the conflict.

Zhao Yu thought that although Yuxi Timur and Ma Shao had different reasons for the conflict, their psychological states were the same, and they both hoped to change the current situation through a victory, so as to get out of the current predicament. But they actually understand that their own chances of winning this battle are not great, but they are determined to provoke a war, which is actually gambling.

In his previous life, Zhao Hao's boat yard was located in a remote location, far away from the bustling city, and naturally lacked entertainment activities. Playing cards and touching a few mahjong after work has become the main leisure activity, and these games often have a little bit of color, otherwise they will lack interest over time. Although he only participates occasionally, it allows him to observe the changes in the mindset of gamblers up close.

Some people play cards purely in the spirit of a small gambling to kill time, the bets are generally very small, a night at most win or lose dozens of dollars, for their lives will not have much impact, even if they lose will not take it to heart, but Zhao Yu found that their behavior when winning and losing money at the gambling table is very different.

If there are two options, one is a 100% probability of losing; The second is that there is half the probability of doubling the loss, and half of the probability of not making or losing, and most people will choose the latter. On the contrary, if option 1 has a 100% chance of winning, option 2 has a half probability of not winning or losing, and half of the probability of doubling it, most people will choose the former.

But not everyone gambling money is with a playful mentality, some people just hope to be able to gamble 'get rich' or pursue the excitement of the do, the stakes are very large, some people will lose all the wages just paid overnight, of course, some people will 'get rich' overnight, but there is no difference in behavior between the loser and the person who wins, they will continue to play, but the psychology is different.

Zhao also remembered that there was a popular poker game called 'Zakin Flower' at that time, and some people who lost money hoped to draw the game later to avoid losses, and it is true that there is a possibility of small and large rules in this game. You can place a very small bet on a deck of cards with a very small probability of winning, and the odds of winning are naturally small, so the probability of winning is very small; Of course, you can also place a big bet on a hand with a higher probability of winning, and the probability of turning over will naturally increase accordingly.

When the actual amount of wins and losses is the same as the expected outcome, if Zhao feels that he will be more inclined to bet his big bet on a hand with a high probability of winning, thus increasing the chances of turning the back. But the result of Zhao's observation is that people who lose money are more inclined to win big money with small bets with a low probability (such as drawing a straight flush), but they don't like big bets that can cause greater losses, even if the latter have a greater probability of turning over.

In addition, Zhao Yu also found another problem in the psychology of gamblers by observing the people in the game, that is, the people who win money do not seem to regard the winning money as "money". This mentality is so common that gamblers often say: "Gamble with the banker's money." That is, when you win, you are gambling with the dealer's money instead of your own. And when it comes to the banker's money, it comes easily and goes quickly, and this sentence is very applicable.

According to this, Zhao Yu discovered a rule, when the loss is within the tolerance range, no one will have a preference for pursuing risk. However, when the loss exceeds expectations, when there is a chance to turn over, most people will choose the method of winning or losing uncertainly. So he thinks that when people are faced with huge losses, if there is a chance to make a comeback, even if they are usually risk-averse, they are generally willing to take the risk at this time.

Some people say that they are not good at gambling, isn't it all nonsense to talk to me! In fact, life is a gamble, and we are always deep in it, without knowing it. We often have to decide what kind of risk to take, the risk will bring us certain consequences, and the gamble often determines what kind of life we will have.

In fact, none of us can stay out of it, because society is like a super large casino, everyone must live in this casino, with their own efforts, Bo tomorrow's gain. The object of gambling is not only money, but also position; There is the stability of the regime, and there is also the victory or defeat of the war; There is the opportunity to work, and there is also the happiness of marriage. The expectation of people in gambling is to make the best use of the rules of gambling and make the best decisions, that is, to guide the increase of their own income through the rules.

People usually refer to those who cast not symbolic "small money", but large enough to ruin themselves, as gamblers. Zhao Yu believes that there are too many gambling games in the world we live in, in fact, every moment and every second, we are taking risks, and the strategies used in dealing with various situations in the real world are actually similar to the methods used in gambling, so there are so many gamblers in the world, and not everyone can get a satisfactory harvest in the gambling game......

In the eyes of researchers, gamblers have their own set of theories, known as the gambler's fallacy, which is characterized by always believing that their intended goal will come, just like when betting on roulette, the probability of red or black in each hand is half the time. However, the gambler thinks that if he bets on red, if black appears several times in a row, the proportion of chances of red appearing next time will increase, if not this time, then next time it is more certain, this is a typical non-mathematical principle, in fact, each chance is always half.

But in Zhao Hao's eyes, gamblers are a group of fanatics who dare to make desperate bets, take risks, and can do whatever it takes to achieve their goals, even at the cost of their lives. Their biggest characteristic is madness, originally they only made a ten-dollar bet, and he lost; So he made another ten dollar bets, but he lost again; Now, he started to bet twenty dollars, and he still lost; Then another thirty dollars, but still lost......

However, the more they lose, the more they have to increase their stakes. Because they always want to turn over, so they chase high again and again, trying to pull the capital, thinking that if they gamble a big one, they can win back the money they lost the first few times. So in order to recover his gains and losses, he used the way of constantly playing big.

In addition, gamblers also have an unknown mentality, and they sometimes regret it. At the beginning, I made a ten-dollar bet and lost; Place another ten dollars and lose again; After one point, he lowered his stake to five. It seems quite sane, but it's not. If he had won the five dollars, he would have been annoyed: alas, he should have increased the stakes in the first place; If he loses these five dollars, then losing is losing, and losing money may make him feel lucky: fortunately, he lowered the bet, otherwise he would have lost even more.

Now the two in Jiangbei are gamblers in Zhao Hao's eyes. Although Yuxi Timur had a good background, it was precisely because he stood on the wrong side in the political struggle that year, and then lost the favor of the emperor, and even the hereditary position of cowardly Xue Chang was gone. In his opinion, this transfer to the south is also an opportunity, and it is possible to regain the favor of the Great Khan and restore the glory of the family.

However, after taking up his post, Yuxi Timur found that the situation was not as optimistic as he imagined, and the Great Khan did not leave him in Beijing to serve, but took over the hot coals left by Boyan and shouldered the heavy responsibility of seizing Jiangnan. He knew that this was not only the expectation of the Great Khan, but also undoubtedly a test of his disguise, if he could not complete it, he knew that his fate would be even worse, even more pitiful than Boyan, and he was afraid that he would not even have a chance to return to the north.

However, Zhao Yu believes that Yuxi Timur, as a veteran of the battlefield, also understands the current situation and how difficult it is to seize Jiangnan again, especially since the two Duwanhu Mansions have lost their courage after many years of peace, and their combat effectiveness is much worse than that of the Northern Army under a plate of scattered sand. However, the army of the Southern Dynasties is indeed becoming more and more courageous the more they fight, and the defense of Jiang is impenetrable, so it is easy to talk about it.

And the expansion of Sange's hook test brought a crisis to Yuxi Timur, but it also made him keenly aware of the opportunity. Under the crisis, the generals can only huddle together to keep warm, and they must obey his orders, otherwise they will be killed as chickens. In addition, if we want to survive this crisis safely, we can only cross the Yangtze River and enter the south of the Yangtze River. Although the odds of winning are still not big, it can be regarded as having the capital to gamble.

In Zhao Hao's view, Ma Shaoken's promise was ostensibly out of atmosphere, but in fact, it was also a gamble. But he bet not on promotion and wealth, but on the future of the Jiangbei scholars, hoping to regain the trust of the Great Khan under a victory, so as to regain power and realize his long-cherished wish of governing the country and leveling the world. In Zhao Hao's eyes, it is even more crazy, because the living environment of the Jiangbei scholars is bad enough, it has reached the lowest ebb, and there is nothing that cannot afford to lose.

At this time, Zhao Yu sat at the gambling table regardless of whether he was willing or unwilling, facing two gamblers, how could he make them stop? Zhao Yu understands that when winning money, gamblers will not stop, under the effect of greed and luck, they will most likely continue to gamble until the situation reverses, and when they lose, they will not stop until they have to stop.

But Zhao Yu also knows that 'stopping' is the most hated thing for gamblers, and in gambling, gamblers often see the impact of people's emotions on gambling, especially fear, but they take action in order to get rid of fear......