With Zhuge Liang coincidentally helping to get the shuttle ejection structure, Li Su's farming plan of "fully developing Dujiangyan hydro power and improving Shudi's industrial production capacity" can be regarded as the last shortcoming of forming a closed loop.

The use of water energy involves grain milling, forging, silk reeling, and weaving. Among them, rice milling is only for the liberation of female labor, which is considered a supporting package, and does not generate much additional GDP in itself.

Therefore, the core vision of this plan is about "after the completion of the matter, the production capacity of the metallurgical and textile industries in Shudi will be increased by two to three times". And this process of realization, Li Su also preliminarily calculated with the people of the Zhen family and Zhuge Liang that it will be relatively long, and it may take a "five-year plan" to complete.

The main difficulty is the lack of capital necessary for the "expansion of reproduction", the fact that there are not so many financial instruments in this era, and that there is no money and not enough surplus labor to carry out construction frantically.

A new loom may be able to weave two more wide Shu brocades every year with the same manpower investment. But the cost of the machine itself may also cost three or four horses of wide Shu brocade or ten horses of old-fashioned narrow Shu brocade - in the era of handicraft economy, the cost of any machinery is expensive, requiring a large number of skilled craftsmen to invest.

Moreover, the brocade also has to calculate the cost of other raw materials, so the preliminary estimate is that the cost of each machine will take three years to pay back the cost of brocade. In the fourth year, there will be "surplus value" to achieve "expanded reproduction", according to Ma Sheng's classic algorithm, that is, "the production capacity can be expanded and doubled every three years".

This is the case for brocade and silk reeling, and the recycling cycle of wrought iron and rice milling is about the same speed, and the investment in all new production tools itself can be as short as two and a half years and as long as five years.

The main mill can be almost unattended for 12 hours a day, and the automation facilities for any auxiliary production must be the longer the start time, the faster the return on the cost. 996 is faster than the normal working system, and 007 is the fastest.

In contrast, the waterwheel of silk reeling is the slowest to return to the cost, because the female workers cannot work all night, even if they work in two shifts, they are not energetic in the second half of the night, and their hands and feet are easy to break the silk. Moreover, the work of reeling silk and cocoon has high requirements for lighting, and you have to light a lot of oil lamps to work at night, which is not cost-effective, and it is better to let the waterwheel waste a few hours idling.

Li Su's planning ability and conscience are not as black as the black-hearted capitalists at the end of the 19th century.

……

After watching the machine, Li Su, the Zhuge brothers, and Guan Yu, who came to see the excitement, chatted nonsense and looked forward to it, and everyone else was enthusiastic, feeling that the soldiers were full of food, and the rich country and strong soldiers were just around the corner.

Zhuge Jin was relatively cautious, and couldn't help but ask after he finished cooling: "Can this new type of equipment continue to expand production like this?" After the people of Shu County use it, if they have surplus money, can it be extended to Qianwei and Guanghan? ”

Li Su was also asked a little calmly, and after thinking about it a little, he keenly grasped a bottleneck: "Don't be too optimistic, the wide crossbow shuttle loom, this thing can continue to expand production, because it does not rely on water conservancy facilities." But the biggest bottleneck of the crossbow shuttle lies in the country's beef tendon production.

During the Huan Ling period, the slaughter of cattle in the whole country was strictly controlled, and the annual cattle tendon was only enough to produce thousands of waist crossbows and crossbows. Our Shu land is located in the south, there is no grassland large-scale cattle raising, and the people's cattle cannot be killed indiscriminately. Only hope to obtain supplies from Nanzhong from the cattle and horses of Yunnan, as well as other fierce beasts with strong tendons. Or through the Qinling Shu Road, and the northern Qianghu business to buy a large number of beef tendons.

Other wrought iron, silk reeling, and rice milling are all built by relying on Dujiangyan water conservancy. The upper limit of the future is to count the 60 miles of the Minjiang River from Du'an to Pixian, with a large waterwheel every 20 zhang, and both sides of the river.

The water flow from Pixian to Chengdu slows down, and the impulse is insufficient, and the forty miles of the river can only be halved, which is equivalent to twenty miles on the Du'an side. Moreover, there are more irrigation canals of the tributaries of the Minjiang River separated by Dujiangyan, and the water flow of several major tributaries can also be used......

All counted, eighty miles of river banks, one hundred and sixty miles of tributary banks, counting both sides, up to 2,000 large waterwheels. Each unit is equivalent to the manpower of 30 women, and it can continue to work, so that female workers can work in shifts, and one car can reach 70 or 80 manpower. 2,000 large waterwheels are the labor of 150,000 peasant women.

According to the current old-style labor, the workload of silk reeling and brocade is about one or three kai, that is, the peasant households have to produce brocade, one-quarter of the time to reel silk, three-quarters of the time to weave brocade. 150,000 reeling girls can supply about 400,000 weaver girls. In fact, these waterwheels still have to be divided into rice milling and forging, and the total production capacity will be lower. In order to thoroughly digest the production capacity of these waterwheels, about 70,000 or 80,000 wide crossbow shuttle looms will be built in the future.

Today, Shu County, Qianwei and Guanghan have a total population of 3 million, of which Shu County accounts for 1.4 million, with more than 500,000 men in the prime of life registered and women about the same. From this point of view, at best, we can only increase the original production capacity of Shu Jin equivalent to one time, and less than twice as much-

Unless we build more water conservancy projects like Dujiangyan, but the cycle of recovering investment will be even slower, which is a hundred-year plan and a thousand-year plan, and the investment in water conservancy repair may not be able to return to the cost in ten or twenty years, nor may there be enough suitable sites, which is not something that can be considered when the war is imminent. ”

Li Su's words were very well calculated, and the Zhuge brothers were all impressed, secretly thinking that Li Boya was worthy of being a good person in the world.

Zhuge Liang is better than his elder brother, and he can't help but follow Li Su's train of thought to discuss: "The return of water conservancy projects is too slow, Qin built the capital of Jiangyan back then, and it took two generations to return to the capital, and the follow-up is a net profit, and after forty or fifty years, Qin's national strength is enough to unify the six countries."

Zheng Guoqu, that was also the conspiracy of the Koreans at the beginning, sent Zheng Guo to Qin to repair water conservancy to "destroy his national strength", so that the Qin people would not have the national strength to destroy Han within a generation, and Zheng Guoqu did it, so that Han died twenty years later. The general of the expedition to the west will go on a northern expedition in five years at most, so let's wait for the peace of the world to do it. ”

When Li Su heard this, he gave Zhuge Liang a slight approving encouragement.

If it is according to the original trajectory of history, this turbulent era of the Three Kingdoms will have to farm in Shu for more than 30 years before the Northern Expedition, then Li Su will consider repairing water conservancy and sacrificing a map editor. But now it is only a "five-year plan" prepared for the Northern Expedition, and these can only stand aside.

At most, if there is a little bit of urgency, and the use of water energy can be used at the same time, and the conditions for shipping and irrigation can be improved, and all three aspects will benefit, and the payback period may be shortened to less than 10 years. If it's not for the fact that all three of the above parties have significant interests, don't think about it.

After pondering and understanding this truth, he also reminded Zhuge Liang in a tone of discussion and discussion, which can be regarded as teaching by words and deeds: "Ah Liang, you can't generalize." If there is a rectification of water conservancy facilities that have the best of water energy, irrigation, and shipping, it can still be done a little. I looked at the territory of Shu County, as well as several counties bordering Qianwei, and it is necessary to rectify Nan'an (Leshan).

Nan'an is the confluence of the Min River and the Moshui (Dadu River), now because the Moshui confluence is too turbulent, the ship can not go, the ship has to unload the cargo by manpower here, land transport more than ten miles, and then change the ship to load the ship again downstream, this cost is too great. In the future, the products around Chengdu will be more abundant, and the materials transported along the Minjiang River will pass through Nan'an.

If we build a water conservancy that is several times smaller than the scale of Dujiangyan, dampen and control water, and transform the turbulence that hinders shipping into controllable hydropower, the three parties will benefit from it, and it will be back in seven or eight years at most. When the time comes, I estimate that it will be able to carry the equivalent of 30% of the water energy workshop on the Dujiangyan side. ”

The place Li Su said is the shop where the Leshan Giant Buddha was built in later generations and needed to be renovated for shipping. Before, Zhao Yun attacked Shu County from the south side, and in Nan'an, he was disgusted by the poor shipping conditions over there, so he mentioned it to Li Su many times, and even Li Su remembered it.

Zhuge Liang looked at the map: "But Nan'an is in Qianwei County, and you have been more than 100 miles deep into Qianwei, but you are the Taishou of Shu County." ”

Zhuge Jin couldn't interject at first, but after listening to his younger brother's retort of "being honest and inflexible", he couldn't help but smile and said: "For Brother Boya, is the official position important?" As long as he wants to take care of it, General Zhengxi will let him take care of it anywhere, and I wish he could do more. ”

The future is bright, but the process is tortuous.

After this plan, the conclusion is: within the "five-year plan", the production capacity of the brocade and iron industries in Shu County can only be doubled to the current level; After seven or eight years, it will finally be completed, reaching three times the current level. The intermediate process requires the consumption of the vast majority of the "surplus value" for "enlarged reproduction".

No matter how greedy you want to expand, it's impossible, due to the limitations of the technology of the times, it has reached the ceiling.

However, once this complete body is realized, the benefits are also very considerable, and this is easy to calculate.

Li Su took out the tax books of the previous years and estimated that he could build an additional 500,000 new wide Shu counties every year out of thin air. According to six or seven thousand dollars per horse, it is directly equivalent to more than thirty hundred million five baht.

During the period of Emperor Huan of the Han Dynasty, the country's annual financial revenue was only three or four billion yuan. During the time of Emperor Ling, the financial collapse of the imperial court through formal channels dropped to two billion a year, but the money for selling officials and repairing the palace could be looted to two billion, adding up to four billion.

And Li Su is equivalent to directly conjuring up a fiscal revenue equal to the Han Dynasty - of course, what Li Su created is only "GDP", which is still very different from fiscal revenue. Of the more than 300 billion, if it is a private enterprise and the state collects taxes and plays to enrich the people, then only one-third can fall into the pockets of the government.

If the chaebols like Li Su and the Zhen family are leading the state-run "state capital attention" and competing with the people for profits, then the officials and operators will probably be able to account for more than 2 billion yuan in benefits. There are also more than one billion yuan to be shared by textile workers, silkworm farmers, and mulberry farmers, and they are the wages of ordinary working people.

In the end, it is certain that there will be both state-run and private-run models. Otherwise, Li Su and the Zhen family will not be able to manage the big business of thousands of waterwheels and hundreds of thousands of new looms. Even if the Fifth Five-Year Plan is opened, the government and state-owned big businessmen and inventors account for 1.5 billion, and there is still 1.5 billion for the people to earn.