In the early morning of the next day after Liu Yan and Dong Fu conspired, Li Su packed up early in the morning and prepared to go to Liu Yan's mansion to pay a visit.

He didn't bring Guan Yu, but just brought Liu Dun and a few other personal soldiers as his entourage to help bring up some greeting gifts.

Liu Dun is a native of Wuhuan, he has never been to Luoyang before, and this is the first time he has the opportunity to go to Jiuqing Mansion with a gift, and he is also honored in his heart.

Even though he only ran errands.

"Mr. Li is really talented, when the lord left Beijing, he didn't leave any connections, only some money. Mr. Li actually opened up such a big situation in just five or six days. The last time I sent a post, I said that I would see you three days later, and yesterday I actually took the initiative to pay a return visit, saying that I could advance it a day, what a face. ”

Liu Dun picked up the gift and looked at the other visitors waiting in line in front of Liu Yan's mansion, and a sense of pride arose.

Mr. Li was able to cut the line! That means that Mr. Li is appreciated by Tai Changqing and overwhelms these people in line!

Moreover, when Li Su took the initiative to make an appointment before, the other party promised to visit in the afternoon, obviously not planning to leave Li Su to eat at the house. Later, the servants in Liu Yan's mansion informed that it was changed to Chen, which was obviously to keep someone for breakfast.

What a great honor it is to be a mere foreign state Gong Cao Shuzuo and a petty official of more than three hundred stones!

As soon as Li Su led Liu Dun into the mansion, there were a few complaints from the waiters behind him: "What? Is it too often that such a shabby person should be met so often, and only so often should he make an appointment to see this person? ”

"Well, we'll have to wait a quarter of an hour."

……

Liu Yan is ranked in Jiuqing, except for the three dukes, generals, and great horses at the top, it will be his turn to come down.

Therefore, in the envious eyes of the other queuers, after entering the mansion, Li Su immediately felt a rigorous and solemn atmosphere. Even the steward next to him hinted that he should pay attention, so as not to be rude, and Li Su's entourage was even more silent.

Li Su cheered up his spirit and mobilized all the instinctive reactions of his previous life to deal with people.

Tai Changqing was in charge of the ritual law of the entire country's Zongmiao Sheji, which was roughly equivalent to the Ministry of Rites in later generations. (The Ministry of Rites has an additional right to manage the imperial examination, which is theoretically more important.) But the Taichang of the Han Dynasty was also in charge of Taixue)

Therefore, Liu Yan's mansion is not luxurious, but every decorative detail is very solemn and atmospheric.

Walking to the main hall, he saw Liu Yan sitting upright from a distance, and Li Su immediately went up to salute: "I have to meet Taichang in my humble position, and I have been given to see and listen to the teachings, how fortunate it is." ”

Liu Yan is dignified, with a kind and solemn face, and he is completely an image of a kind old man: "There is no need to be polite, what Cao Mengde said in the book, I already know that you and that Liu Bei are also loyal by nature, and the jade is not polished." ”

Li Su: "Don't dare to praise too often." ”

Liu Yan waved his hand, gave him to sit down next to him, and said: "Not in his position, don't do anything, I don't ask about local political and military affairs, but Liu Bei's deeds, if they can be publicized, can also magnify the spirit of the heroes." At the time of the national crisis, it was necessary for such people who did not care about selfish interests to serve the country in order to make up for the rigidity of the imperial decrees. ”

Liu Yan was patient and praised the reason why he wanted to promote Liu Bei.

Then he picked up the pottery cup in front of him and took a sip of water, ready to survive Li Su's boasting.

However, his qi cultivation skills are very good, and his face does not show the slightest impatience.

Today's meeting is completely a process - how to use Li Su's chess piece, Liu Yan and Dong Fu have already thought about it after discussing it secretly. No matter how bad Li Su's performance is for a while, the result is already decided.

The reason why it is necessary to see it, and to appear so polite and virtuous, is completely to make up an excuse, so as not to have the doubt that outsiders will have "how can Tai Changqing be unusually gracious to such a small person, is there something else".

However, Li Su did not frantically boast about the leader's kind words, but just smiled faintly:

"Taichang cherishes Li Min, Su and Liu County Lieutenant, and is deeply grateful for the grace of knowing the meeting. I was at Cao Mengde's place, and I heard that there were too many high-level arguments that could solve the malpractice that local county soldiers could not take the initiative to fight thieves, so I dared to ask for advice or two. Now that we are fortunate enough to see it, we will certainly be able to do some good. ”

The first half of the sentence stops at the end of the sentence, and the second half of the sentence immediately returns to the theme of "seeking advice".

Li Su came to the door today, posing with a low posture of "a fool has a thousand thoughts, and occasionally has a gain". to show that even if he secretly coincides with Liu Yan in the tendency of "abolishing history and establishing pasture", it is a coincidence that he "should" know what it is and does not know why it is.

In other words, he wants to show that he is "looking at the mountain as a mountain and looking at the water as water", while Liu Yan is "looking at the mountain or the mountain, and looking at the water or the water".

The former just accidentally got the answer right and didn't know the process of solving the problem; The latter has the process of solving the problem, and sees the essence through the phenomenon.

Liu Yan couldn't help but glance at Li Su's character slightly.

Know how to advance and retreat, and be measured.

"This young man is really natural and simple, and he never takes credit. Or is it so eye-catching that I can't even see through it? Suspicion flashed in Liu Yan's heart, but it was quickly dispelled.

After all, Li Su's appearance is too deceptive, how can such a young man who is less than twenty years old be a sophisticated and cunning person, that is really selfless by nature.

Regardless of this, Liu Yan saw that the other party was on the road, and he just made a quick decision: "Ask for advice, or don't mention it, this is not overnight." But when the old man sees that you are sincere, you can make materials.

I want to teach you, if you really have the potential to be a capable official, I will ask my friends to recruit you to stay in the capital to do things, and you will naturally grow in the future. ”

said that it was the school examination, and Liu Yan already had the idea of releasing water in his heart.

It's like a lazy university teacher, facing a scumbag who is still short of a subject and can get a degree certificate. I can't wait to hand over the answer directly to the other party to copy, so that the other party can graduate and get out of the way.

Li Su still has that simple attitude: "Humble thanks, pray for the proposition." ”

Liu Yan recalled Cao Cao's letter of recommendation, and remembered that Cao Cao had said that this Li Su seemed to be proficient in arithmetic, so he let go of the water and asked:

"I heard that on that day in the General's Mansion, you used the science of arithmetic to analyze the military expenses and rewards allocated by the imperial court across states in previous years, and inferred that Yuyang Wuhuan would be reversed, and Gongqi was probably unpredictable. Yesterday, the imperial court received a report from the Youzhou Thorn Shi Tao Qian's mansion, as you expected. In this case, you might as well use the method of arithmetic to analyze the other thieves in this dynasty. ”

This question is very broad, and Liu Yan doesn't know the other party well enough, so he wants Li Su to pick the free play that he is good at.

However, Li Su was very serious, and did not reveal the slackness of "I know you want to release water".

He took the initiative to ask: "This question is too broad, and I pray that I will choose a chaos." ”

Liu Yan was slightly displeased: Tell you to reduce the difficulty casually, you still don't appreciate it?

"Take the Yellow Turban Rebellion as an example! Can you tell me why Zhang Jiao rose in Jizhou back then? Even though the imperial court taxes were extremely heavy, Jizhou was a rich state, and since the people were poor and sick, shouldn't they start in even poorer places? ”

This question is more difficult because it is more specific than the previous one.

It is difficult to review such a thing as "how did the thief happen" from the perspective of quantitative analysis such as money and grain, household registration, etc., and Li Su did not have historical statistics at hand.

But this question still aroused Li Su's spirit of exploration.

In his last life, he studied at the Foreign Affairs Academy, and he also studied many professional courses related to the art of domination.

The analysis of the previous changes of dynasty and the causes of various changes, he ate very thoroughly in his professional classes.

His mind raced, searching for knowledge about guarding against witchcraft and stick-type thieves in the future, and soon found an angle of mathematical analysis.

Li Su cleared his throat: "I think that Zhang Jiao and the Yellow Turban Thieves were not only born because the people were poor, but the key was that the plague was epidemic in the world at that time. And only rebellions arising out of poverty arise first in the poorest places.

From the point of view of arithmetic, the thieves caused by the plague first appeared in a random place, but Jizhou has a large population, so the probability of appearing in Jizhou is relatively large, and it happens to be the case in the end. ”

Liu Yan originally didn't have expectations, but after listening to this answer, he was quite interested.

It's kind of interesting.

Just like the teacher who was originally going to release the water, he suddenly found that this make-up candidate could not only make basic questions, but even additional questions.

"Let's be more detailed." Liu Yan bowed slightly, and leaned forward involuntarily.

Li Su arched his hand and continued to answer: "One of the biggest characteristics of the thieves caused by the plague is that there are witch doctors and others who incite people's minds and gather disciples. Kezi is silent, there is no witch god in the world, and the Taoist technique borrowed by the thief is nothing more than pretending to give alms.

The probability of the patient curing without medicine after taking the drug, and the probability of death due to aggravation of the disease, we assume that it is 55 to 5. Therefore, if a witch doctor is lucky, the probability of being cured twice is one-quarter, and the probability of being completely correct three times is one-in-eight.

And so on, if you practice witchcraft ten times, you can have one in a thousand, and if you practice witchcraft twenty times, you can have one in a million. According to the customs of our Han people, there are 50 people in ten households, and there are always one or two gangsters among them, who will practice witchcraft and deceive people in the year of the epidemic.

The population of the Han Dynasty is 50 million, and there are hundreds of thousands of occasional witch practitioners in the plague year, so there is at least one horn according to the probability, and the first 20 witch practices when they can debut are all fulfilled. It doesn't even have to be fulfilled in full, as long as twenty doctors live seventeen or eighteen, they will already be worshiped as gods by the village.

In the future, in fact, there is no need for luck, because after his reputation is known, those who are cured will be attributed to his witchcraft mastery, and those who cannot be cured will say that it is because the heart of the deceased is not sincere, and it will be like an avalanche, and there are more and more believers.

Therefore, the precedents such as the Yellow Turban and the Rice Thief have taught future generations a lesson: in the future, in the year of the pandemic, the first priority of the imperial court is to strictly prohibit rumors and those who practice witchcraft, and not give the world's liars the opportunity to gamble their luck. Because even if the people of witchcraft rumors have no Taoism, as long as they have enough people involved in gambling and cheating, they can always use probability to pile up another angle. ”

Zhang Jiao is inevitable, but why it is specifically the rise of Zhang Jiao is only a matter of probability theory.

In other words, although a witch-gambling thief like Zhang Jiao also needs hard power, the proportion of hard power is much lower than that of Cao Cao and Liu Bei.

If you want to make Cao Cao and Liu Bei, you need 30 points of strength and 70 points of luck, then to make a Zhang Jiao, you need 1 point of strength and 99 points of luck.

The reason why Li Su is so clear about this point is that later generations of civilized countries around the world have summed up the ruling experience in this regard: in the year of the plague, prophetic rumors must not be allowed to spread, because according to probability theory, as long as the base of rumors is large, there will definitely be "divine prophecy" in the end. (What is more troublesome in later generations is that there is a keygen machine, and gangsters can register a lot of probabilities for speaking heaps)

No matter how advanced the education is, not all civilians understand probability theory, and the ignorant and ignorant people who are poor in mathematics are easy to be taken advantage of.

After Liu Yan listened, his pupils instantly dilated a lot.

Although he really couldn't understand the words "randomness and probability", Li Su couldn't express it in the terms of this era, because there were no terms in this era at all.

However, Liu Yan is keenly aware that Li Su's thinking is very likely to be right, because he still understands the rough mathematics of "halving the probability of winning every time you bet on a streak". It's just that no one has ever thought about it from this perspective before, and Li Su has opened a window to a new world for him.

As for the terminology, maybe it's in "Nine Chapters of Arithmetic" or "Zhou Ji Sutra", he himself has read few math books, so it's not surprising that he doesn't know.

"This shaft...... Even by studying arithmetic, he can also get a glimpse of the way to control chaos. It seems that the princes of the Manchu Dynasty and the Gentlemen have despised the 'number' in the six arts of the gentleman.

In this way, even if this son is not enough to learn the right way, but with this arithmetic art alone, I recommend him to serve in Bo'an, and he is enough to be competent, and he will never be suspected of ulterior motives by outsiders. ”

Liu Yan was secretly worried in his heart, and the more he thought about it, the more he felt surprised.