…… No matter how you calculate, our current fleet of ships is not enough. After the deduction on the picture was over, Thorpe said with some disappointment.

In the exercise bāng, all people feel the same way.

On the vast map table, the glass plates covering the large-scale map of the eastern and central sea regions have been painted with various roads and markers. Scattered with various small models.

The NV operatives tasked with marking and pushing the model on the glass plate had retreated to the back, standing respectfully against the wall. In the past, the posture, figure, and uniform style of the NV orderlies had been a topic of discussion among the veteran officers, but now no one has paid attention to them.

Not only the veteran officers, but also representatives of several cooperation ministries such as the Ministry of Colonial Trade and the Foreign Intelligence Nose were also included in the exercise room. They also had a embarrassed god on their faces.

The sophistication of the motivating actions far exceeds the estimates of each of them. Although they had already solved a number of prerequisites: stockpiled supplies, expanded the production capacity of ships, recruited and trained sailors, and even expanded the quarantine camps, it became clear that there were many problems in the seemingly simple process of transporting people back.

From Dengzhou to Lingao, the straight-line distance on the map is more than 1500 nautical miles, and from Lingao to Zhapu, the straight-line distance is about 900 nautical miles.

The average sailing ship at sea, taking into account the factors of current and wind direction, has an average speed of about 2

~4 knots. That is to say, under ideal conditions, a ship can sail in 24 hours, from Dengzhou to Lingao in 15 days, and a voyage can be completed in 30 days.

However, in practice, sailing ships cannot travel in a straight line at sea, and generally take a more tortuous route in order to obtain favorable wind direction and currents. Although no one has any experience in sailing the whole voyage, according to the Navy's estimates, a single voyage from Dengzhou to Lingao takes about 20 days. Considering that sailing in the era of sailing relied heavily on ocean currents and wind direction, it is not impossible that the time difference between the time and the round trip will be doubled. Considering the leniency, it takes about 40 for a Harmony ship to travel between Dengzhou and Lingao on each voyage

Tianyi included a short rest and replenishment in Lingao and Dengzhou.

Sailing ships cannot sail all year round, and sailing along the coast of China must also consider avoiding the impact of typhoons in summer and autumn. The weather forecasting system of the Senate was very weak, and even if meteorological stations were set up in Dongsha and Xisha, the radio could not provide weather forecasts to ships under sail. Therefore, once the typhoon is in full swing, sailing must be stopped. In this way, the sailing season of the whole year does not exceed eight months. You can go back and forth 6 times a year.

To transport 100,000 people from Shandong to Hainan, assuming that each person needs 2 tons of displacement, that is, 200,000 tun people, if the transportation is to be completed within 8 months, there must be a transportation capacity of close to 34,000 tons of displacement each time for the migrants. Counting the navy and sailors, as well as maintaining a certain fleet in Hainan, transshipment points along the way, and Shandong, then there must be a fleet of ships with a displacement of more than 50,000 tons. In fact, this is an impossible Jihua for Lingao's shipbuilding industry, even if it is 100,000 immigrants from Zhejiang, it is difficult to complete it by direct transportation to Hainan.

Even if Shi Jiantao can complete the order of 24 H800s of the Planning Institute on time, the harmony ship that can "devote himself wholeheartedly" to the motivation action is less than 20,000 tons. Together with the patchwork of other vessels, it can be added up to 30,000 tons.

To transport 100,000 people, according to this standard, it will take more than three years. It's a bit of a long time.

Although some people have suggested that slave trading ships in Africa and the Americas could carry one person per ton, the mortality rate on board is obviously not what the patriarchs are pursuing.

It is difficult to estimate how many of the malnourished, frightened refugees will survive by the time they reach Lingao after a flock of malnourished, frightened birds, into a boat as crowded as canned as canned as they are in the wind.

The painstaking effort to put people on board the ship, of course, is not preparing to throw corpses at sea to play. How to bring people back as healthy as possible is the first thing that the combat command should consider.

Obviously, it is not very possible to directly transport people back from Shandong or Zhejiang. Then the only way is to set up stops in the middle of the way and temporarily "hoard" the population. First transport the population out of Dengzhou as much as possible, and then transport it back in batches.

"According to our Ministry of Health, it is best for the displaced people to undergo a certain process of decontamination and quarantine in the local area or near the local area." Zhang Tumu, who came to the meeting on behalf of the Ministry of Health, said: "Otherwise, it is easy for all kinds of epidemics to explode in the cabin of the ship with too many people and no air circulation." The lack of effective disposal capacity on board not only caused a high mortality rate during the voyage, but also greatly damaged the health of the survivors transported to Lingao. ”

"We had to find a couple of stopovers. ，… Chen Haiyang said: "It's best to set up a pre-decontamination camp in or near the local area, just like the Guangzhou station. ”

Lingao needs manpower, especially those who speak the northern dialect. But it doesn't mean that all these manpower have to go back to Hainan immediately. The first step really only required these people to send out of the controlled areas of the Ming Dynasty. And then slowly send these manpower to Hainan or other places where they are needed.

The advantage of setting up a decontamination camp nearby is that the number of people transported from Dengzhou can be greatly increased each time. If one person per tonnage can be transported during a two-day voyage at sea, if the sailing time is controlled within seven days, there is no need to load too much water and food on the ship, and the number of people per tonnage can be increased to four or even five.

Of course, this decontamination camp should not be set up on the mainland. Although the crossing group has enough weapons and fortifications to repel any of the forces on the mainland, it would be too expensive to build a large camp on the mainland that can accommodate tens of thousands of people to defend it from attack. It is also important to consider that after an initial respite, displaced people may flee because they are reluctant to leave their homes or are afraid of being transported overseas.

Therefore, this purified nasal place can only be set up on the sea, that is, on the outlying islands.

The outlying islands are not only safe and secure, but both the Ming army and the pirates have a weak ability to conduct amphibious operations, and the Fu Bō army can protect the safety of the outlying islands as long as they have a small number of garrison troops and naval patrol boats. The outlying islands also limit the possibility of refugees attempting to flee.

As for the specific location of the outlying islands, some people propose to be in the Miaodao Islands, while others propose to be in the Changshan Islands or Liugong Islands. These islands, without exception, are close to the Shandong Peninsula and have a certain water source, which can support the stationing of tens of thousands of people in a short time, of course, food needs to be sent from outside. It was also proposed to set up a purification camp in the Lushun area to directly occupy the currently abandoned city of Jinzhou. However, these locations were either close to the war zones of the Houjin and Ming dynasties, and were susceptible to interference by the Ming sailors: or they were too close to the mainland, and the Bohai Sea was far more frozen than in the 21st century, and many small islands were connected to the mainland in winter. As a result, many people have proposed to capture Jeju Island as a transit center for Dengju.

Jeju Island is only 350 nautical miles away from Dengju, and it only takes 3~4 days for a single voyage, and it is not a problem to stuff five or six people into a Harmony ship.

At that time, the Korean power on Jeju Island was not strong, and the population on the island was not large.

Jeju Island has an area of 18,000 square kilometers and a population of only 550,000 even in the 21st century, when the island was used as a penal colony and horse ranch by the Lee dynasty. The population of the island will not exceed 120,000 at most, and among them there are many officials and slaves who have no affection for Lee's Joseon, and it is not expected to encounter much strong resistance.

The defense of the island Liliang was weak. The patriarchs were very clear about the military liliang of Lee's Joseon, and its armament situation was miraculous. It didn't take much effort from the Fu Bō army to take Jeju Island. In addition, the strategic environment and weak military situation faced by the North Koreans at that time made it impossible for them to recover Jeju Island once they lost it.

Jeju Island is surrounded by warm currents, and the climate is mild and rainfall is abundant. Not only is the water source most needed by the purification camp not a problem, but there are also abundant fish farms in the vicinity to replenish food.

Occupying Jeju Island will not only provide a secure purification camp, but also thousands of official horses from the local Korean horse farm. For the Senate, which had been short of horses for a long time, it was worth as much as the tens of thousands of people transported out of Dengzhou.

“… In the long run, the occupation of Jeju Island is tantamount to giving us a good base to intervene in the Liaodong War between the Ming and Manchu Qing in the east and the Japanese in the west. Luo Feng, who advocated the occupation of Jeju Island, said, "At that time, none of the Ming Dynasty, Manchu Dynasty, Li Dynasty, and Tokugawa had any attack that threatened Jeju Island, and we could ensure the safety of the island with a small number of garrison troops." Refugees from Dengzhou do not have to be relocated to Lingao, and some can be resettled on the spot. In the future, the horses we bought from the mainland can also be kept on the island. "But what about the beech coat? It's the Xiaoice River now, and the Bohai Sea is almost completely frozen. Without thick cotton clothes, I am afraid that a large number of them will freeze to death. And grain. Piling up more than 100,000 people on Jeju Island will put a lot of logistical pressure. Thorpe said.

"Compared to Dengju or even a little further south on the mainland, Jeju Island has much higher temperatures. In the 20th century, the lowest temperature in winter was above 0, and warm currents passed through. Citrus could be grown during the Li Dynasty. You must know that citrus cannot be grown north of the Huai River. I don't think the temperature was too low. An ordinary padded jacket will do the trick. In addition, ships do not transport people from Lingao to Shandong, and the empty tonnage can be used to transport grain, clothing, and building materials. After the refugees arrive on the island, they can also carry out production and self-help activities on the spot. Even extensive cultivation can obtain a certain amount of food supplementation. ”！