Chapter XXII Analysis
At three o'clock, the field team gathered again in the conference room and began to analyze the character of the fugitives, simulate their psychology, guess their possible whereabouts, and prepare in advance for the subsequent pursuit.
This time it was still a group discussion, with a discussion time of two hours, and Yu Bule designated Pei Zhixiu, Zhou Zhiyu and Qin Taixi, three team members who were relatively unfamiliar with him, to make the final concluding speech, and each spoke for ten minutes. After a lively discussion, the image of the criminal began to gradually become clear.
At the final summary time, Pei Zhixiu first summarized Chen Changsheng: "After discussion, we believe that Chen Changsheng is vicious, brutal, insidious, cunning, and has a certain conspiracy ability, but he shows that he is more accustomed to solving problems by force. The analysis should not be the leader of the trio. We judge that the leader should be Zhou Wen, and Sister Taixi will do an analysis later. I'm here to analyze Chen Changsheng.
In addition, the information shows that this person is extremely lustful, and the family runs a fireworks business, and there is never a shortage of beautiful women around him. After serving fifteen years in prison and not touching women, we judge that if Chen Changsheng wanders into the city, it will inevitably be difficult to suppress the desire to find women, and he may seek flowers and willows, or rape or even rape and kill. However, the trio did not harass the women in the farm after entering the house in Pantang.
So far, no women have been found missing or raped in the surrounding area, and no traces of infiltrating the city have been found, so it can be inferred that, first, the three should still be traveling together; second, he was in a leading position in the trio, and someone was able to suppress his criminal desires; Third, since serving his sentence, he has not had close correspondence with his family, and he has not found out that the reason for his eagerness to escape from prison should be to cooperate with the escape, just to be free, to come out and enjoy the escape. It can be inferred that Zhou Wen, the leader of the trio, should have a clear escape plan, so the three of them have not yet parted ways.
However, since the three of them stole civilian clothes in Hujiazhuang, it means that the three of them have plans to infiltrate the town or go to the official road. The theft of civilian uniforms and the theft of table salt shows that they still have plans to continue to survive in the wild, after all, although the prison guards and overalls are conspicuous, they are much more durable than civilian uniforms.
After the three escaped from prison, they were able to survive in the mountains for 6 days with only two guards' waist knives, and from the analysis of the fact that the burglary did not cause other damage, the current survival of the three should be not bad. There are no other weapons such as kitchen knives, and it is estimated that they have made their own weapons using bamboo and wood, and they are quite confident in their homemade weapons and do not need civilian weapons.
Judging from past experiences, the trio's suspicion of the most survivable ability in the wild is Chen Changsheng. Compared to the other two, he served in the front-line army and should have had similar training on the battlefield. is also the reason why Zhou Wen pulled him into the duo. However, judging from the current clues, he may be used by Zhou Wen. Later, Sister Taixi's analysis will also mention that Zhou Wen seems to have a paranoid view of personal heroes and has a sense of disgust for criminals, so it cannot be ruled out that it is safe to confirm that it is safe, or that after blending into the town, Chen Changsheng may be killed by the other two.
However, during his imprisonment, Chen Changsheng never showed his insidious cunning but blindly showed violence. Therefore, it is not excluded that he has long been aware of Zhou Wen's plan and may use the two of them in turn. In any case, as long as the gang does not break up early, the trio's infighting should be expected.
Finally, there is the direction of the flow. The reason why Chen Changsheng escaped from prison should be that he will not have any specific direction, but simply escape and enjoy life. Therefore, even if his goal is the north-south trunk line of Chencheng, he should never go south to Jiaozhou, which is vast and sparsely populated, poor mountains and bad waters, and has a population that is only more than Liang and the two border states, and there are no decent cities, so he will definitely not go south, but only north. As long as we can accurately locate their tracks, determine the train they boarded, and set up at each station in advance and search for the train, he will have nowhere to escape.
So there is also a possibility that they crossed the north-south line and continued eastward into Yangzhou. However, if you enter Yuzhang City in the south of Yangzhou from Guiyang, the conditions are even worse than those on Guiyang's side. Although Yangzhou is rich, its population is concentrated in the north, and the south is not as good as Guiyang because of its mineral population and denseness. So the judgment is unlikely.
In the end, for Chen Changsheng's comprehensive prediction, I personally tend to believe that he will be abandoned and killed by the team. Debriefing is complete. Bae Jisoo was the first to finish the report, stuck out his tongue, showed two playful cute rabbit teeth, and sat down.
She was a little nervous at first, but the more she talked later, the smoother she became, and she began to gradually add her own analysis, returning to her usual clever and playful appearance.
Zhou Zhiyu took the initiative to stand up and continued; "Hello chiefs, let me analyze Liu Jun's discussion." Then he looked at Yu Bule and waited for the chief's instructions. A well-behaved and polite look.
"Let's start, I've never seen you respect the chief so much." Lin Zhenna quipped.
"Where is it. I've always been very polite, okay? Zhou Zhiyu blushed.
Seeing that Zhou Zhiyu eliminated her nervousness, Yu Bule glanced at Lin Zhenna and smiled slightly, "Let's start." ”
"Yes, sir. First of all, let's talk about Liu Jun's personality and personality. Judging from the data, this person has performed well in the army, from an ordinary rural service soldier to a captain step by step, it should be said that he is an excellent soldier. Usually at home, he is gentle and honest, respectful to his parents, brothers, friends and brothers, and can be kind to others in the village. It can be said that he is a standard good person. Judging from the process of his crime, including the verdict, and the subsequent application for visiting the country was not allowed, I personally feel that Liu Jun should have been maliciously retaliated against, and the sentence was very unfair.
Including reviewing his medical records in Guiyang Prison, it can be seen that in the past six and a half years, there have been medical records of him almost every month, and most of them are traumatic injuries or even fractures. And his prison record shows that he is behaving well and there is no abnormality, which in itself is abnormal. This frequent injury began to decrease last year and has increased again in the past three months. Therefore, it can be judged that in the past year, Liu Jun should have received the help of Chen Changsheng or Zhou Wen, and the targeted attacks began to decrease, and after he began to prepare for the prison escape plan three months ago, he began to cooperate and increased the frequency of going to the infirmary, and he should be the first to steal steel products.
In terms of prison escape motives, Liu Jun is the most motivated. A good soldier like him was forced to lead his soldiers home to participate in the village fighting, and from the sentences he received and the treatment he served, his enemies had considerable energy. His father died of illness and his mother was seriously ill, and he, a filial son, should be quite worried about the situation at home. But judging from the means of escaping from prison and the subsequent lurking, this is not an action that an upright soldier like him can plan. So in the prison escape incident, he was undoubtedly in a leading position. At present, it seems that Zhou Wen is leaning towards him, taking advantage of his resentment and eagerness to go home to see, and encourages him to participate in the prison escape team.
Judging from the process, the guards attacked by Chen Changsheng were directly hit with broken neck bones, while the guards controlled by Liu Jun were only stunned after being asked for an order. From the benefits of escaping, it is obviously unfavorable, it can be seen that although Liu Jun escaped from prison, he still did not have excessive aggression, and there was no rebellious personality to retaliate for being mistreated in prison.
The destination after the prison escape, Liu Jun should be said to be very clear. I think he will definitely go back to his hometown in Nanyang to have a look, and it can be called a homecoming. Therefore, the best route for his personal preference must be to take the north-south trunk line to the north, leave the trunk line near Wancheng, and go straight west to Nanyang.
However, not only do we understand this, but his companions Zhou Wen and Chen Changsheng must also know this. And although Liu Jun is loyal, he is definitely not stupid, and he must know this. Judging from his personality, he should not be willing to stay with a bully like Chen Changsheng. The problem now is that we don't know how Zhou Wen used and controlled Liu Jun to cooperate with the prison break, and what kind of promises he was given. There are too many possibilities. However, I personally tend to believe that Zhou Wen will use him to check and balance Chen Changsheng, and may even use the possibility that he will get rid of Chen Changsheng.
Therefore, it is only a matter of time before this person is caught, and the harm to society is controllable. The remaining question is who this enemy of his is, and he does not know the identity of the enemy. We do not have any information on this at this time. The biggest danger of Liu Jun is that he may directly retaliate against the enemy to protect his family.
In addition, there is another possibility, that is, after Zhou Wen uses Liu Jun, will he also kill Liu Jun. After all, Liu Jun is too simple, and the destination movement is also extremely obvious, and there is a risk of exposing them. I'm done. Oh, by the way, if the latter two speculations do not occur, then he will inevitably appear on the official road leading to Nanyang in the west of Wancheng, and he will go on the road alone, or he will make a detour to Xiangyang and then go north. We just need to appropriately relax the wanted notices in Wancheng and Xiangyang, create a certain sense of security for him, and then arrest the lone horseback rider on the official road. And I think it should be Wancheng, because Xiangyang is not connected to the train, and the detour will delay the trip for four or five days. Sir, that's the end of the story. ”
Yu Bule gave Zhou Zhiyu an encouraging look, smiled and didn't speak, and looked at Qin Taixi again.
Qin Taixi consciously stood up, smiled generously, looked around at the participants, and then cast his gaze on Yu Bule's face again, and then said: "Sir, sir, colleagues, next I will try to summarize the results of the discussion on Zhou Wen. This person is very complex, full of mysteries, and limited information, it is difficult to accurately conclude with limited information, if there is anything that is not right, please bear with me. Then he bowed lightly before he began to analyze.
"Zhou Wen should be said to be a genius in the absolute sense, with an average family background, but from childhood to adulthood until the crime, all the evaluation records are A and A+, and at the age of 22, he graduated from the medical department of the Southeast Army School as an outstanding graduate, I believe you can also understand how difficult this achievement is as an ordinary person without any identity background. Of course, super geniuses like Chief and Chief Lin don't count. Qin Taixi stuck out his tongue and sold a cute.
This statement is very objective, as the prosecutor of the elite gathering place in the past three years, only Yu Bule, Lin Zhenna, Liu Renna and Park Yingmin have the same graduation resume, or even higher. The Southeast Army School is not an officer academy, but an ordinary military school, and ordinary graduates can be called excellent if they can get sergeants. And Zhou Wenneng graduated with the rank of second lieutenant, and this situation will not be produced in ten or eight years.
Of course, as an ordinary person, Zhou Wen could not be admitted to the Central Military Academy, one of the Central Military Academy basically only selects students from military families, and secondly, the entrance examination of the Central Military Academy requires captain-level force, unless Zhou Wen is self-defeating and bears the consequences of illegal martial arts, otherwise he will not pass the martial arts test. And he was able to get the rank of lieutenant when he graduated, and the martial arts assessment was also rated A or above, and reached the standard of lieutenant or above, and he was a genius in martial arts from an ordinary person to a lieutenant or above in three years. Not to mention all the ratings A or above.
Qin Taixi himself is also an outstanding graduate of Jizhou Military Academy, and the rank of graduation is only non-commissioned officer major. There are at least 4 such outstanding graduates in the division, but they are all non-commissioned officers.
Qin Taixi straightened his hair with a document a little and continued: "After graduating, this person entered the Wu City State Hospital located in the state capital and left the army establishment. Insert a sentence, so this person's force is unknown, with his martial arts genius, he should have at least captain-level force, but I don't know if he will be taught school-level force in the future. And his wife is the youngest daughter of the lieutenant colonel of the Jiujiang City Defense Army in his hometown, Li, Zhou Wen was 20 years old when he got married, and he was already a well-known genius. His wife, Zhou Li, was his classmate at the time, and Miss Gaomen married a civilian genius, and was rumored to be a beautiful conversation in Jiujiang at that time. Under Yu Bule's gaze, she didn't dare to tease the chief again this time. Yu Bule secretly hated in his heart, why didn't he find this girl so naughty before.
"After getting married, the relationship between the two parties is average. After graduation, Zhou Wen went to the state hospital, while Li's grades were average, and he returned to Jiujiang and worked as a secretary in the city defense army. Qin Taixi glanced at Tan Jiaren with a smile again, and continued: "The two sides began to separate for a long time. Li refused to give up the superior life of Jiujiang, and pampered, the husband and wife began to gradually estrange, although they had a daughter, but Zhou Wen was busy with work and could not often go back to Jiujiang to visit relatives, and Li always refused to move to Wu City, which eventually led to Li's derailment. And Zhou Wen became a local famous doctor in Wu City, accepted a three-room concubine, and lived a more self-disciplined life, which was basically well received. Hardly any stains can be found.
As for the later arrest of adulterers, murder of adulterers, and abuse of wives, the records in the dossier are more detailed, and I will not repeat them here. In fact, if Zhou Wen only killed the adulterer, even if he killed his wife Li as well, he would not have been sentenced to such a heavy sentence. However, the brutality he used in the case was heinous, coupled with the fact that he did not defend himself, did not appeal, and did not say a word during the interrogation, was considered extremely dangerous and was sentenced to life imprisonment.
However, the identity of the adulterer is worth mentioning, he is the major and deputy head of the city defense army, Wang, an old subordinate of Li's father, and also Li's boss. Coupled with the Li family's own family tradition, since the two of them can be easily subdued by Zhou Wen, then Zhou Wen's force is suspected to have even reached the rank of colonel. After being rescued, Li had a nervous breakdown and became insane, and the case file records that he committed suicide by poisoning 7 days later, and failed to provide a confession, so it is not clear how Zhou Wen subdued the two victims at the crime scene, so his force is a mystery.
The second mystery is Zhou Wen's character. In the eyes of others, Dr. Zhou, who is sunny, confident, strong, upright, courageous, benevolent, and clean, kills people so brutally that the people around him can hardly believe it. After Zhou Wen was imprisoned, his three roommates, the arsonist who was accidentally burned, the murderer who accidentally fell and was stabbed in the lungs with a bamboo pole, and the poisoner who was poisoned suffered from chronic food poisoning were all directly related to their respective crimes. Although no evidence could be found, everyone in the prison suspected that it was from Zhou Wen's trial.
From this, you can see the complexity of his character. We think that he presents himself as a punisher, a sanctioner, or something like that, and may have a spiritual habit of being superior to others and having the right to judge others. His silence in the courtroom should be the verdict of his guilt and his own guilt.
The third mystery is the companion of the prison break. Why did he take Chen and Liu to escape from prison together. This person is thoughtful and very smart, he should understand that the more people there are, the easier it is to be exposed, and judging from the process and method of the prison escape, he can implement this plan alone, after all, his force value should theoretically be higher than that of two companions, why bring the other two to escape from prison together, the most critical wall digging is still carried out in the cell of Chen and Liu. And in such a tense escape process, he also gave emergency treatment and cervical spine positioning to the guards who were injured by Chen Changsheng, otherwise the guards with broken necks would definitely die.
The fourth mystery is his plan. According to the information provided by the prison authorities, Zhou Wen has no correspondence record in the past six months, and the identity verification of his 'cousin' has not yet been received. We judged that he had obtained the tools to escape from the jailbreak through that visit, so he had to make an appointment to have the tools ready at least four months before the implementation of the plan. With such a thorough plan and timeline, why didn't he implement it in advance? After all, there is a lot of uncertainty about such a thing as a prison break, why did he have to wait so long?
The fifth is his motive for escaping from prison. Chen Changsheng came out to enjoy, and Liu Jun wanted to visit his family, but Zhou Wen's motives were very confusing. As mentioned earlier, if his sentence is due to self-judgment, and he does not appeal, defend himself, or hire a lawyer, he should bear the consequences of such a heavy sentence. Why did he escape from prison without any outside influence? Sister Jiaren has analyzed the trial of his case before, if he can seriously confess his crimes, repent in court, and ask a lawyer to defend him well, he should be sentenced to a minimum of 25 to 30 years in his case, so that he does not need to serve his sentence in a felon's prison. Since he himself chose such a sentence, why did he break out of prison again. Without figuring out the reason for his escape, it is difficult to judge his future movements.
However, from the perspective of short-term goals, since Zhou Wen chose to bring Chen Changsheng and Liu Jun to team up, then he should at least have the same short-term goals as the two, and persuade the two to cooperate with him to escape together. Although we don't know the destination of Zhou Wen and Chen Changsheng, Liu Jun's destination is very clear, it must be north to Nanyang. Before they disperse, we can deduce the direction of the trio's escape.
In the end, we discussed that with part of Zhou Wen's character, a self-proclaimed saint like him who has a habit of cleanliness and also judges other prisoners, may be fine to Liu Jun, but he must look down on gangsters like Chen Changsheng. Since he escaped with Chen Changsheng, it means that Chen Changsheng must have something on him that he needs to use, so if the use value is exhausted, I think he will definitely kill or punish Chen Changsheng in his way and return him to the search force.
There are also many hypotheses, because there is not enough evidence to support them, and it is difficult to form an opinion in the discussion. I won't go into it anymore. That's all for my report. Qin Taixi was a little embarrassed and introduced it for a long time, but there was basically no effective content, only various questions.