The development of the domestic situation in Paraguay not only affects the strategic deployment of the Han government, but also stirs up the sensitive nerves of the important officials of the government of the Republic of Brazil.

In the former Royal Palace of Rio de Janeiro, now the official residence of the President of the Brazilian Republican Government, President Fonseca, President of the Parliament Morais, Field Marshal Pesciotto, and Navy Commander Ferreira gathered together for an in-depth discussion on how to deal with the chaos in Paraguay.

The meeting officially began, and seeing that none of the high-ranking military and political leaders sitting at the round table took the initiative to speak and put forward their own opinions, therefore, as the convener and leader of the meeting, President Fonseca of the Republic of Brazil, knocked on the table with his pipe and said: "The recent changes in the situation in Paraguay, I think everyone knows a little bit, and the purpose of gathering everyone together today and convening a meeting is to solicit everyone's opinions on how to deal with the changes in the situation in Paraguay. You can bring it up on the spot, and you don't have to worry about it. ”

As the words fell, everyone in the council hall still had a cautious, contemplative expression on their faces, and no one opened their mouths to take Fonseca's words and say them below.

"Marshal Pessoto, what do you think about the issue of the coup d'état in Paraguay?"

The atmosphere in the conference hall was solemn, and Fonseca had to turn his eyes to his partner, Field Marshal Pessoto, hoping that the other party would provide him with a suggestion worth learning from.

"The Republic Army is anticipating the possible political turmoil in Paraguay, but according to the analysis and speculation of the Army, López Jr.'s coercive rule in Paraguay should be able to last for three or five years, but the sudden death of López Jr. disrupted the prior deployment of the Republic Army. Then take advantage of the collapse of the López family's regime to launch a war against Paraguay. ”

"So, Marshal Peshoto, I wonder if the Army of the Republic is now capable of defeating the royalist forces and recovering the north-central coast?"

"I'm sorry, Your Excellency, the earliest time for the army to launch an offensive against the royalist forces is July 1890, and now, one year and one month ahead of schedule, the army's combat preparations and the recruitment and training of soldiers have not been completed.

"What about the Navy? In the last six or seven years, the Republic Navy has successively purchased four advanced armored cruisers, and the total tonnage of naval ships has increased by about double compared with the period before 1880. ”

Receiving no satisfactory answer from Pessoto, Fonseca pinned his hopes for the settlement of the royalist armed forces on the navy.

"I disappoint you, Your Excellency, although the Navy of the Republic has acquired a number of new warships in the last ten years, and the total tonnage of the Navy ships has gradually exceeded the tonnage of the Royalist armed forces, the situation of the Navy of the Republic is completely different from that of the Army, and the officers and sailors of the Navy of the Republic are all white, and they not only exclude non-white officers and sailors from serving in the Navy, but also openly and covertly disobey the orders of the republican government to supervise the officers sent by the republican government to enter the naval fleet. The sailors had all the privileges of the imperial period, and a large part of them still had illusions about the royalists, and some of the high-ranking naval officers, officers, and even had personal ties to the royalists. …………

There are not a small number of naval officers and sailors who sympathize with and are inclined to the royalist armed forces, and given the current situation in the Republic Navy, I do not think that the Republic Navy is capable of carrying out an attack on the Royalist armed forces. ”

"The deep influence of the royalists on the navy belongs to the historical problems left over from the division between the north and the south, and this problem is more complicated, that is, it cannot be handled roughly, nor can it be left alone."

Fonseca's face was heavy, and he ordered: "The operation of placing supervisory officers and sailors of other ethnic groups in the naval fleet must continue, as long as the control of the main warships of the navy is in the hands of the republican government, those old-fashioned officers and sailors will not be able to make waves." ”

"Okay, Your Excellency the President, the Navy will join forces with the port guard force to strengthen the supervision of ship officers and sailors."

After inquiring about the situation of the army and navy in turn, and having arrived at the inference that the originally planned strategic plan to give priority to the attack on the royalist side was no longer feasible, the topic of the parliament returned to the question of the Paraguayan incident.

The time was not ripe for a full-scale offensive against the royalist forces,

Political turmoil broke out in Paraguay ahead of schedule, losing the opportunity to attack in the north-central coastal direction, and at the same time in the Paraguayan direction, having gained another opportunity to regain the territory and boost the morale of the people in the country, Fonseca realized that if war was inevitable, then the most suitable direction for the Brazilian Republic to break through was in Paraguay.

Paraguay's domestic economy is on the verge of collapse and the two sides control the main military powers, and they are gathering strength for the ultimate power in Paraguay.

Paraguay is sparsely populated, with a total population of just over 500,000, and nearly 50,000 people are forcibly conscripted into the army.

Once the civil war broke out, and the army with a small number of troops concentrated near Asunción to fight, then the western and northern regions of Paraguay, which were empty of defenses, would become a playground for the army of the Brazilian Republic.

An attack on northern Paraguay, where the defenses are empty, is highly likely, and victory is highly likely, but even if the Brazilian Republic faces Paraguay alone, it has an overall advantage.

However, without the support of the British and the elimination of the threat of Han to their own army, neither Fonseca nor the officials and generals sitting in the hall dared to make the decision to send troops to attack Paraguay.

Fonseca was waiting for a piece of news, and Pesciotto, Morais, and other high-ranking officials of the Brazilian Republic sat in their seats without saying a word, also in order to wait for a decisive news, and no one would give him a clear response until he heard the news, no matter how rich and vivid Fonseca's speech was.

The meeting lasted from morning to evening, and at seven o'clock in the evening a telegram from the British Legation reached Fonseca.

"The British agreed to our conditions, and the British minister made a commitment on behalf of the British government to support in principle the just war of the Republic government to recover its territory and fight against the López regime, and the British side will provide diplomatic and material support to the Republic government to ensure that the war is confined to the territory of Paraguay and that other countries are not allowed to spread the war to the areas controlled by the Republic itself!"

Fonseca, having received a promise from the British, excitedly announced to the others.

"What about the Han side? Would the Han army ignore the British government's principles of engagement and send troops to attack the Republic itself when the Paraguayan War broke out again? ”

Peshoto still has concerns in his mind.

"It is possible that the Han government will ignore the British principle of belligerence and launch a direct attack on the mainland of the Republic, but the Han Ministry of Foreign Affairs has just issued a public statement clearly promising not to intervene in the Paraguayan civil war. From our experience of several battles with the Easterners, it is inferred that, although they were ambitious for the land of the Republic, their assurances were generally worth trusting. ”

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Brazil stood up and explained.

"The British have made their attitude clear, and the Han government has also made a clear diplomatic statement, then, even if the Han army also intervenes in the war after the Republic army enters Paraguay, as long as the Republic army is fast enough to catch up with the Han army, destroy the remnants of the Paraguayan army, and occupy Asunción,

The Han army could not bargain in the face of the heavily defended army of the republic. ”

Hearing two pieces of good news in succession, Fonseca's confidence increased greatly, and he said happily: "Even if the worst-case outcome is considered, the Han army is on the offensive fiercely, and the army of the Republic cannot withstand the attack of the Han army and is forced to withdraw to the mainland defense, at that time, the security guarantee promised by the British can force the Han army to stop the offensive before the border line."

Therefore, I believe that the government of the Republic should take the initiative to intervene in the chaos in Paraguay and take advantage of the opportunity of the dispersion of Paraguay's domestic forces to recover the occupied territory and resolve the military threat posed by Paraguay to the southern border areas of the Republic. ”

"I agree with His Excellency the President that the gap in strength between the Republic and the Han State is getting wider and wider, and it is impossible to solve the threat of the Han State to the Republic simply by passive defense, and taking advantage of the opportunity of the civil strife in Paraguay to occupy Asunción and push forward the confrontation line between the Republic and the Han State to the middle of the Paraguay River basin will be of great benefit to the Republic's future territorial defense strategy."

"The Han army is fierce in combat, if the army of the Republic is not able to fight on the front line, I think the principle of preserving strength should be adhered to, and if the progress of the army is frustrated, then it will retreat decisively, withdraw the republican army to the mainland, and retain the vital strength of the army of the Republic." …………

With the endorsement and assurance of the British, the confidence of the officials and generals was restored, and they put forward their own suggestions one after another.

"Send troops to Paraguay, put the preservation of strength first, fight if you win, and withdraw decisively if you can't win. The proposal given by Marshal Pessoto is good. ”

Seeing that everyone was unanimous, Fonseca was satisfied: "It is completely reasonable to send troops to Paraguay to recover the occupied territory, and I believe that all the civilized countries of the world will definitely support the just war of the Republic." ”…………