Chapter 282: Internal Factors
"If you take into account the post-war world situation, it will take at least three more years."
As soon as these words came out, not to mention Li Tianling, even Bai Huawei showed a puzzled look.
"At least three more years?" Bai Huawei obviously felt that Ding Zhennan was exaggerating, or he didn't understand why Ding Zhennan dared to make such a statement.
Li Tianling also nodded slightly, and put on a deferential look.
"You're obviously ignoring a problem." Ding Zhennan paused slightly, didn't wait for the two to speak, and said: "Whether it is through negotiation or other methods, this war will definitely not end as we imagined, or there will be no real result. Then both we and the Republic of Nuland have to consider the post-war international order, and we need to complete the deployment before the end of the war. Even if there is no way to complete it, it must be deployed in advance to ensure that the post-war world pattern is more favorable to you. ”
"You mean ......"
"The era of the two powers." Li Tianling spoke up for Ding Zhennan.
Ding Zhennan nodded and said, "This world is too small to accommodate three super hegemons, so there will only be two super hegemons after the war." In fact, the little national strength of the Manman Empire can't support the super-hegemony at all, it's just in vain. It is not difficult to imagine that the original three-legged stand will become a two-power competition after the end of the war, and the world pattern will inevitably be reshuffled. ”
"The Nuland Republic is far worse than we are." Li Tianling said again.
"That's the key."
Hearing Ding Zhennan say this, Li Tianling immediately tightened his brows.
He kept following Ding Zhennan's words at first, but he didn't get to the key point.
"The problem is that even if the war continues for another three years, the national strength of the Republic of Nuland will not be able to catch up with us, and it will still be at an absolute disadvantage."
"Why do you want to catch up with us?" Bai Huawei raised such a question, indicating that he had not yet reacted, or that he had not understood what Ding Zhennan meant.
"Even without World War III, our combined national power is far superior to that of the Republic of Nuland. If the group is the standard, the Xilu Group and the Beigu Group together are not as good as the Eastern Group. In fact, for a country like the Republic of Nuland, which is outside the world island, it does not necessarily need to be on par with us in terms of overall strength. The reason is simple: the Republic of Nuland does not have core interests on the world island, so it does not need to expend resources to maintain its presence on the world island. On the contrary, in order to safeguard the core interests of the world island, we must invest a lot of resources. Besides, the geographical advantages provided by the two oceans are enough to offset the gap in overall strength. ”
This time, Bai Huawei and Li Tianling were silent.
Obviously, the key is also geography.
Decades ago, the Imperial authorities and the military had asserted that even in the years after the end of World War II, the Empire could not effectively control the entire World Island, let alone bring it under its purview.
To say anything, in the years after the end of the Second Global War, the imperial authorities did do similar studies.
To put it simply, it is the possibility of creating a world commonwealth.
Unfortunately, it is only a theoretical research, or after the completion of the theoretical research, it is shelved because it is not feasible.
Not to mention that at that time, even after a few decades, no one believed that the entire world island could be placed under a single government.
The key is the objective development disparity that cannot be resolved in the short term.
Not to mention the extremely backward Xuan Continent, just on the huge land, there are huge differences in the development of various regions and countries, which are similar to cloud mud. For example, with a population of 1 billion, the Liangxia Empire has achieved industrialization and is one of the most developed countries in the world, but the Van Luo Kingdom is a typical agricultural country, and its social form is even stuck in the era of serfs. With such a huge disparity, how can the more than 2 billion people in these two countries be placed under a single government? Even if it is forced, the ending will definitely not be much better.
In fact, the people of the empire were already dissatisfied with the formation of the Eastern Bloc, especially the inclusion of a large number of underdeveloped countries.
Obviously, this kind of uneven development in the region, even if it is intentionally solved, will take decades, even centuries, to solve, and it is very likely that there is no cure at all. It is not that which countries are destined to be strong and developed, and others are destined to be poor and backward, but to try to achieve egalitarianism between countries and regions, to be precise, is very idealistic and cannot be implemented at all. It is not only the developed countries that do not do it, but even the poor countries may not be open to the gratuitous assistance provided by the developed countries.
In this way, it is undoubtedly a fool's dream to achieve a global alliance.
Geopolitics inevitably became the main factor influencing the post-war international order.
Relatively speaking, geography has always been the biggest shortcoming of continental countries like the Liangxia Empire, or a big problem that cannot be avoided and must be faced.
To put it bluntly, if you can't rule the entire world island, you will inevitably encounter challenges from the ground.
Obviously, the Western Continent Group, led by the Empire, is a typical representative.
In addition, the crushing defeat in the Polish-Iranian War is also related to this.
Looking further, after the war, the empire has not entered the Xuan Continent, and even in the areas of interest, it mainly protects its own interests by supporting spokespersons, which is also fundamentally a geopolitical problem, such as the reluctance to set up more enemies on this continent far from the mainland.
These geographical deficiencies have always bound the hands and feet of the empire.
In contrast, offshore countries like the Republic of Nuland do not have such problems.
For the Republic of Nuland, what needs to be controlled, that is, the offshore area with the isolated continent of the north and south as the core, can at most gain a few footholds on the world island.
Obviously, offshore areas are much smaller and easier to control than World Island.
Crucially, the Republic of Nuland and offshore countries, even if they are different in language, have strong commonalities in cultural traditions, especially religious beliefs.
These common features allow the Nuland Republic to complete the domination and administration of the offshore region at the lowest cost.
If anything, before the First Global War, Nuland was already the hegemon of the offshore region, and its hegemony has remained until now.
There is no doubt that the solid dominance established by hundreds of years of painstaking operation in the offshore region, as well as the interests of all aspects, are in themselves the strength of the Nuland Republic to dare to compete with the Liang Xia Empire and maintain its independent status after the defeat of the war.
It can be seen that the advantages are all in the hands of the Republic of Nuland.
"It's just that this issue should be looked at from a different angle."
"To that angle?"
Ding Zhennan smiled and said: "The disadvantages we see are actually based on the traditional strategic view, that is, no matter how much we pay, we must face challenges from land. Due to the influence of culture, tradition and ideology, we will not be able to solve the problem of uneven regional development in any way. As a result, as our sphere of influence expands, the pace of our expansion will inevitably slow down, reaching equilibrium at some point. It is precisely in this way that offshore countries such as the Republic of Nuland can use their geographical advantages to offset the disparity in strength, and through continuous confrontation, let us collapse in the midst of increasingly serious internal contradictions. ”
"What do you mean, could there be other points of view?" Li Tianling asked directly.
"Can't we really eliminate regional development disparities?"
was asked by Ding Zhennan, but Li Tianling didn't react at once.
"Even if it could, it would take a lot of time, at least decades, even centuries." This time, it was Bai Huawei who first understood what Ding Zhennan meant. "If nothing else, just cultural identity will take generations, and it will definitely not be possible for us to foresee the future."
"It does take a lot of time, but as long as you go in the right direction, sooner or later you will be able to unify the world island, and even the whole world."
"It's too far away," Li Tianling pulled the topic back, "for now, since we have such an obvious geographical advantage, what reason does the Nuland authorities have to spend a few more years with us?" Not to mention anything else, just three years of war expenses, which is an astronomical amount! ”
"For the Nuland Republic to maintain its geographical advantage, it must have a navy strong enough to at least prevent us from crossing two oceans." Bai Huawei pursed his lips and said, "Even at the speed of wartime, it will take at least three years to build a navy that can compete with us. Considering that we will also increase our investment, maybe three years will not be enough, at most it will be barely enough. ”
"It's a secondary issue." Ding Zhennan took over the topic.
Bai Huawei was stunned, but didn't answer.
"Several large-scale naval battles were fought, and it was actually shore-based aviation that played a decisive role, at least playing a key role. Obviously, before we have absolute superiority in troops, we will definitely not enter the isolated continent, let alone directly attack Nuland itself. From the perspective of development, let alone three years, even if it takes another three years, we may not be able to obtain an absolute military advantage sufficient to enter the isolated continent and attack Nuland itself. ”
Bai Huawei pursed his mouth and did not refute Ding Zhennan's point of view.
Ding Zhennan's remarks are tantamount to refuting his initial argument that it will take three years for the Nuland Navy to build a navy that is sufficient to protect the homeland.
By the standards of the Navy, the so-called "absolute superiority in forces" must not only crush the enemy's fleet, but must also reach the level of crushing the enemy's shore-based aviation.
Obviously, this is a high standard.
However, this is also a real problem that cannot be avoided.
At the end of the Second Global War, the Empire still did not launch a combat operation to attack Nuland itself, even if it relied on the shore-based aviation deployed to the forward bases, the Imperial Navy did not have absolute superiority at all.
"The real key is actually internal problems."
"The Republic of Nuland?" Li Tianling asked.
Ding Zhennan nodded and said, "As you mentioned at the beginning, the three-year war expenditure must be an astronomical amount, and even if it can be afforded, it will inevitably have a huge impact on Nuland's economic structure." The point is, in addition to using the wartime state to implement some laws and policies that cannot be implemented in peacetime, the Nuland administration will inevitably take this opportunity to attack the interest groups that control the lifeblood of the country. As I mentioned at the beginning, the Nuland regime must be prepared to confront us for a long time after the war before the war is over. ”
"This ......"
"The most important thing is to take back the right to mint money."
Bai Huawei's brows twitched a few times, and Li Tianling also looked very shocked.
"If you really want to say, the war expenses are small. A full-scale confrontation that will last for decades or even longer, and the inevitable war of spokesmen during the confrontation, even the mere building of a modern army and the development of advanced weaponry will require more money than war spending. All the more so, this is in peacetime, without wartime conveniences. If the Nuland authorities were unable to recover the vital coinage rights before the end of the war, they would have held out for fifty years at most, or perhaps twenty years later. ”
"If that's the case, I'm afraid three years won't be enough." After saying this, Li Tianling sighed.
Bai Huawei didn't answer, just shook his head with a wry smile.
In fact, the three military personnel have little say in the issue of the Nuland Republic, after all, it requires sufficient wealth and deep expertise.
Of course, the key is one point.
The Nuland regime has no control over the country to the same extent as the imperial authorities.
To put it simply, the Hwaseong government in Nuland is more like the headquarters of a group company, and the various states, as well as enterprises with strong strength, especially the financial industry represented by banks, are the subsidiaries and branches under the group, and the group headquarters and the subsidiaries and branches are not subordinate to each other, but more like cooperative relations. In order to safeguard the common interests of the members, a headquarters-like governing body is required.
It can be seen that the Republic of Nuland is more like a federation.
Although the Nuland Republic is also a centralized form of government, compared with the centralized power of the Liangxia Empire, the gap is obvious, and the degree of control is not at the same level at all.
The most representative is the coinage right.
The coinage rights of the Nuland Republic are in the hands of private financial institutions, which are controlled by dozens of banks, and the Hwaseong authorities do not have the right to issue currency, but can only issue government bonds, or let the banks that hold the coinage rights buy government bonds.
The point is that the bonds will definitely be repaid, and it does not mean that the Hwaseong authorities want to issue bonds, and the banks are willing to buy them.
In contrast, the coinage power of the Liangxia Empire has always been in the hands of the imperial authorities, so the imperial authorities were able to macro-control the economy by controlling the currency of the hair.
The most important thing is to put financial capital in a cage in this way.
From this point of view, the Nuland administration will never end the war until it completes the reorganization of its own financial system, or at least until it seizes the right to mint money. The point is that Nuland's financial capitalists will not sit idly by, let alone willingly hand over the right to mint money.
Let's not forget that the financial capitalists who hold the right to mint money have been around for hundreds of years and have long held the economic lifeblood of the Nuland Republic.
It can be seen that three years may not be enough!
Of course, at this point in the discussion, there is no need to go on.
The war will continue, and it won't end for at least 3 years!