In the end, Lin Shiping combined all the speculations and gave a more positive conclusion.

In the next three months to six months, the probability of a large-scale war breaking out in the southern subcontinent is more than eighty percent, but the Nuland Republic will not directly send troops.

To put it simply, the war will be fought in the way that the Van Roe Kingdom seeks to unify the entire southern subcontinent.

Through diplomatic efforts, some time can be gained, but as long as the Nuland Republic is willing to invest enough resources, it will not be able to prevent the outbreak of war.

The reason is also very simple, the Liang Xia Empire will not be able to let the Van Luo Kingdom dominate the Southern Subcontinent no matter what.

As for the direction of Aozhou, Lin Shiping was so relieved that he was not too worried.

In his words, as long as the Liang Xia Empire did not do anything stupid to destroy the Great Wall, as long as the Imperial Navy was still strong enough, then in the next three years, the Nuland Republic would not dare to attack the idea of Austria at all, at most make a fuss about Austria, and then take the opportunity to seize the Howaii Islands.

Relatively speaking, the Khowaii Islands are the key.

However, it also takes time to prepare, and it is even more important to wait for the right time.

The former, which has nothing to do with the Military Intelligence Agency, will not affect it, after all, the size of the Nuland Navy is not small, and it will definitely increase the level of combat readiness after the outbreak of war. If it's fast, maybe a month will be enough. Slowly, in just a few months, the Nuland Navy will definitely be able to complete its pre-war preparations.

The point is, in fact, the latter.

The timing was determined by the war in the Southern Subcontinent.

To put it simply, when the Imperial Navy concentrates its fleet on the Fanyan Ocean, the Nuland Navy will be able to launch a combat operation to recover the Khowaii Islands with its local superiority.

After the outbreak of war in the southern subcontinent, how many forces would the Imperial Navy need to invest in this direction?

If I want to say, this is also the key to the "two plus two strategy" proposed and pursued by the empire after the Polish-Iraqi War in the past ten years.

This "two plus two" refers to a full-scale war in two main directions and a large-scale local war in two secondary directions.

It was envisaged at the time that the two main directions were the continental and guia theaters, and the two secondary directions were the southern subcontinent and the crescent.

In the Empire's strategic plans, the Southern Subcontinent is only a secondary direction.

But the problem is that in the "two-plus-two strategy", it was not thought that the Nuland Republic would be able to provide substantial strategic assistance to the country.

This whole set of strategies has to be in the context of the third global war.

The implication is that when the Empire had to send troops to the Southern Subcontinent, it had already started a war with the Hindan Empire and the Nuland Republic, blocking the shipping routes to the Southern Subcontinent.

Against this background, there is no question of how many fleets to invest in the Fanyan Ocean.

The reason is also very simple, the empire is on the strategic defensive in the direction of the Fanyan Ocean, and its only purpose is to control Posha Bay, and it does not need to occupy the southern subcontinent, at most it is only to prevent the enemy from using the southern subcontinent, so the strategy adopted is only to carry out a strategic blockade of the southern subcontinent.

According to this strategy, the Imperial Navy did not need to deploy heavy troops in Fanyanyang during the Great War.

Of the 15 standing aircraft carrier battle groups of the Imperial Navy, 9 will remain in the Guia Ocean, and the other 6 will be used in the Sunset Ocean.

From a military point of view, the use of submarines and shore-based aviation to cut off sea routes to the southern subcontinent is enough for the Van Roe kingdom to submit.

It is precisely for this reason that under this strategy, the forces invested in the southern subcontinent are limited and only in a secondary direction.

The current situation is that the Nuland Republic will definitely not enter the war immediately, and the empire will not declare war on the Nuland Republic until the Northwest Theater is stabilized, so it is impossible to use a strategic blockade against the Van Luo State, and it may not be able to make the Van Luo authorities understand the overall situation.

With the support of the Nuland Republic, it is possible that the Van Roe Kingdom will develop the southern subcontinent into a major battlefield.

As a result, it will be necessary to invest enough fleets in this direction.

To say, this is also the most critical question.

According to the report submitted by the Navy, even if the war mobilization is completed within three months and all 15 aircraft carrier battle groups are deployed, then after half a year, only 10 aircraft carrier battle groups can really be deployed, because the first five aircraft carriers to complete the deployment must return to the shipyard for overhaul. Relying on only 10 aircraft carrier battle groups, it is simply impossible for the Imperial Navy to have strategic superiority on three oceans at once.

If anything, it is impossible in two oceans.

What's more, the combat operation on the other side of Posha Bay is not over yet!

According to this analysis, the Imperial Navy needs to maintain sufficient strength in three directions, Posha Bay, the Northern Fanyan Ocean, and the Guia Ocean, so that in three months, that is, when war breaks out in the southern subcontinent, the Imperial Navy will deploy only four aircraft carrier battle groups in its surrounding areas at most, and the two battle groups deployed in the Mua Sea will also have to undertake combat operations in the direction of Posha Bay.

This amount of troops is simply not enough to deter the Van Luo Kingdom.

If a war breaks out, at least three aircraft carrier battle groups will need to be put into the Bay of Bengal alone, and at least three aircraft carrier battle groups will need to face Van Luo on the Mua Sea side.

Herein lies the problem.

At that time, it will be impossible to use 6 aircraft carrier battle groups to deal with Van Luo Guo in any case.

At this point in the discussion, Qin Fenglie proposed a solution. In the name of war mobilization, the large aircraft carriers that were mothballed after the Polish-Iranian war were immediately activated.

Obviously, this is indeed the way to go.

It's just a matter of urgency.

Although after the end of the Polish-Iranian War, the Imperial Navy tried its best to preserve more than 20 large aircraft carriers that had not yet reached their design life in the wave of great disarmament, but these aircraft carriers in a mothballed state, even if they did not consider the performance, it would take a lot of time to just unseal.

Theoretically, it will take at least half a year for the mothballed aircraft carrier to return to service. The first three months are spent cleaning the inside and outside of the ship, while the last three months are spent returning to the shipyard for the necessary modernization, during which the main equipment and systems are tested.

It's just that it will definitely take more time to actually execute.

If nothing else, the shipyard simply does not have such a strong retrofit strength, and there are not even enough dry docks to transform all mothballed aircraft carriers at the same time.

What's more, the shipyard will not delay the construction of other warships in order to unseal the old aircraft carrier.

After the outbreak of the war, the shipyard's first task was to immediately start building more supercarriers according to the plan drawn up before the war.

In this regard, the Imperial Navy had a very complete and extremely detailed plan for building ships.

According to the data provided by Qin Fenglie, six mothballed aircraft carriers in good condition can be put back into service within half a year at the earliest.

However, after serving, it may not be able to go to sea to fight.

The rationale is simple: the Navy needs to spend more time training its reservists to regain their skills.

It's not that the Navy's mobilization system is too poor, but that the mothballed aircraft carriers are too old.

Almost all of these large aircraft carriers were built during the last war, and only the six in the best condition were built after the end of the war.

Although these aircraft carriers built during the Great War were improved several times before they were decommissioned and mothballed, such as replacing them with beveled decks that appeared after the Great War, using steam catapults with better performance, etc., they were mothballed for more than ten years, which was enough to be abandoned by the rapid development of technology.

The key is that most of the officers and men who served on these aircraft carriers are over 50 years old!

Some of the core personnel, especially the technical non-commissioned officers, are over 60 years old.

This means that many young officers and men have never worked on these aircraft carriers at all, and it is impossible for them to directly control the aircraft carriers to participate in battles.

After unsealing, it takes at least a few months of acclimatization training.

Even according to a more ideal scenario, the first batch of six large aircraft carriers can form combat effectiveness within a year, which is very good.

In the Navy's strategic plan, the mothballing of aircraft carriers is only a second-line force.

To put it simply, during the war, let these aircraft carriers stay in the second-line troops and undertake the task of anti-submarine escort, so as to reduce the pressure on the first-line troops, and there is no need to spend resources to build special escort carriers after the war, so as to build more supercarriers.

Well, what about the newly built aircraft carriers?

Obviously, it is even more that far water cannot save the near fire.

Although within a few days, the two houses of parliament will approve a new shipbuilding plan, loosen restrictions on the navy, and allow the navy to build warships, including aircraft carriers, according to actual needs, but even if the shipyard immediately enters a state of war, it will take at least 30 months to build a supercarrier.

If you count the time for the completion of the mobilization of the shipyard, then it is already good that the first supercarriers will be able to enter service in 3 years.

If anything, because of this or that problem, the first supercarriers that started construction after the outbreak of the Great War will take at least 3 years to be built. For example, during the last Great War, the "Provincial" rank was added to the battle sequence 3 years after the outbreak of the Great War.

Can you wait until three years later?

Although theoretically, it is impossible for the Nuland Republic to acquire many aircraft carriers in 3 years, at least in terms of overall strength, it is impossible to surpass the Liangxia Navy, but the Nuland Navy only needs to fight in one direction, that is, in the Guia Ocean, and there is no question of fighting on two fronts.

Obviously, this was an advantage that the Imperial Navy did not have.

In this way, it is simply impossible to commit enough troops.

After going around in a circle, the problem came back around.

The only way to devote sufficient forces to the southern subcontinent, that is, to gain a large enough strategic advantage, is to end the combat operations in the direction of Posha Bay within three months, and to devote the forces originally used in that direction to the southern subcontinent battlefield.

Don't forget, it was previously planned to put 6 aircraft carrier battle groups in Posha Bay!

Even if two of them have to take care of the southern subcontinent, as long as they can complete the battle in this direction in time, they can send four additional aircraft carrier battle groups.

There is no doubt that this is decisive.

To put it bluntly, if four aircraft carrier battle groups can be added, the Imperial Navy will be able to take the lead on the battlefield facing the southern subcontinent.

The key is to maintain sufficient strategic advantages in the Guia.

In this way, it is expected that within a year, that is, withstanding the attack of the Western Continent Group, recapturing the area on the east bank of the Volga River through counterattacks, and even capturing and controlling the Western Luosha, with a huge strategic advantage, the Nuland Republic, which is still on the sidelines, will accept a fait accompli.

This is the most desirable outcome that can be achieved.

So, will it be possible to end the combat operation in Posha Bay in three months?

Zhou Yongtao threw this question to Qin Fenglie, and Qin Fenglie made a request.

Consumption is no longer restricted, and casualties are no longer mandatory.

Kuwait could be liberated within three months if the cost was not taken.

Qin Fenglie's reason for making this request is also very sufficient.

The Iraqi army is well prepared and will certainly be able to hold out for several months, so launching a ground offensive in advance will inevitably lead to a head-on battle with the not too weak Iraqi army, and the equipment superiority of the imperial army and the marines cannot completely offset the disadvantage in troops.

The key point is that the Air Force has to send tactical aviation to the northwest theater, and the main force on this side of Posha Bay is the Navy's carrier-based aviation.

It's not that Qin Fenglie looks down on the navy, but it's that the carrier-based aviation is still a little worse than the combat efficiency.

For example, in terms of sortie capabilities, aircraft carriers are definitely not comparable to air bases.

In addition, there are geographical constraints to consider.

In Posha Bay, which is closest to the battlefield, only two aircraft carrier battle groups can be deployed at most, while all other aircraft carrier battles were deployed in the East Continent Xinhai several hundred kilometers away last year, or in the Mua Sea, which is also several hundred kilometers away, and the combat radius of carrier-based aircraft far exceeds that of the air force tactical aviation deployed in Saudi Arabia.

Just an increase of several hundred kilometers in the combat radius can greatly reduce the combat efficiency of carrier-based aviation.

As for increasing the input of troops, it will require more time for preliminary deployment, and it will also increase the difficulty of logistical support, which will lead to a longer combat time.

According to the report provided by the Joint Command, one more division would take an additional three weeks to deliver equipment and supplies to the front line.

If nothing else, just a delay of another 3 weeks, it is unlikely!

Of course, that's not to say that there is no way.

The most effective way is to mobilize the oil-producing countries on the south shore of Posha Bay and get these countries to increase their investment, such as undertaking some ground combat missions.

Before that, Saudi Arabia and other southern shore countries were hesitant, after all, Iraq is also a member of the Muslim-Arab alliance.

Now, all these hesitations have to be put down.

A global war has broken out, and unless Saudi Arabia and other countries intend to change course and join the Western Continent Group along with Iraq, they will have to go all out.

According to Qin Fenglie's meaning, if he can persuade Saudi Arabia and other countries, he will be more sure.

On a key issue that Zhou Yongtao was most concerned about, that is, the selection of the commander of the Northwest Theater, Qin Fenglie said that he could go to the Northwest Theater in person, and wait until the combat operations on the side of Posha Bay were over, and then let Shi Zhiliang go over and let him serve as the commander of the theater again.

Obviously, Qin Fenglie is also not very optimistic about the current Provisional Commander.

Because this was an internal affair of the army, and the answer given by Qin Fenglie was barely passable, Zhou Yongtao did not make more requests, but just asked Qin Fenglie to arrange it as soon as possible.

Of course, Zhou Yongtao mentioned that unless there was no other choice, Qin Fenglie would have to stay in the imperial capital.

The implication is that just let the cow go by.

Qin Fenglie did not object, because his current official status is the Minister of Defense, strictly speaking a civilian official, and he is not qualified to command the army in battle.

Before taking the position of Minister of Defense, Qin Fenglie had already retired from the Imperial Army.

After Zhou Yongtao made arrangements, Qin Fenglie left the Shoufu Mansion.

Lin Shiping didn't leave, and there were still some things that were not good to say in front of Qin Fenglie.