Chapter 43: The Great War
When sending the supper in, Luo Youbin noticed that the atmosphere was very tense and full of gunpowder.
Actually, it's only past 10 o'clock.
When he received the call from Shoufu, Luo Youbin thought that it must be those generals who couldn't negotiate, so he had a supper in advance to let everyone calm down.
Compared with the diplomats in the morning and the cabinet ministers in the afternoon, the general's temper was not very good.
probably thought that Zhou Yongtao would have other instructions, and Luo Youbin deliberately delayed a little time, but in the end, Shoufu had no other instructions.
In fact, Zhou Yongtao asked Luo Youbin to send supper in, not to ease the atmosphere, but because everyone was hungry.
Those generals didn't even eat dinner!
Before coming to the residence of the chief assistant, they had a day's meeting at the general staff, and they received a call from the first assistant before dinner.
In the General Staff, it was the operational issues that were discussed.
Of course, if the general does not discuss operational issues, can he discuss other issues?
That's the problem.
First of all, according to what way to fight.
Secondly, how big to prepare, that is, to what scale to fight.
More than a dozen generals of the army, navy, and air force and the Marine Corps spent a day arguing at the General Staff Headquarters, but they did not understand a single issue, and the differences became bigger and bigger.
The most debated issue was whether the combat operations at Posha Bay could be concluded within a month.
Military intelligence provided reliable information that even if the Western Continent Group was in full force, it would take a month to complete the necessary preparations for a strategic offensive, so the Imperial Army had to end its operations in the direction of Posha Bay within this time.
To put it simply, it is necessary to avoid fighting on two fronts.
This is also a very critical issue, if anything, that determines the direction of the development of the whole situation.
At the morning and afternoon meetings, Zhou Yongtao discussed the issue with diplomats and cabinet ministers, and reached an agreement.
If Kuwait can be liberated and combat operations in the direction of Posha Bay can be forced to accept the fait accompli before the Western Continent completes the mobilization for war, that is, before the war is launched, it may be possible to force the Hindan Empire to accept the fait accompli and then eliminate the threat of war through active diplomatic mediation.
Even if the threat of war cannot be eliminated, the moral high ground can be gained.
To put it bluntly, it didn't make the Empire lose the reason to start a war.
So, will it be possible to liberate Kuwait in a month?
More than a dozen generals discussed for a day, and finally came to the conclusion that "it would not work", to be precise, they came to the residence of the first assistant and quarreled in front of Zhou Yongtao for three hours, and finally came to the conclusion that it was impossible to liberate Kuwait in an ideal way within a month when Zhou Yongtao came forward.
In a word, unless we are willing to bear the huge price of tens of thousands of casualties, launch a ground war before completing the air strike, and fight a large-scale ground war with the Iraqi army, which is not weak in combat effectiveness, we will certainly not be able to liberate Kuwait within a month.
According to the estimation of the chief of staff of the army, with the current number of troops, two armored divisions and one marine division of the army will launch a ground war, and the losses will be very huge.
If the air strikes continue, it will definitely take more time.
Surge?
This may seem like a workable solution, but it doesn't.
Even if the empire goes all out and uses all the ships it can find, it will take about half a month to complete the troop surge.
However, this means that in this half month, the war materials sent to the front line will inevitably be greatly reduced.
Crucially, the increase of troops to Posha Bay would inevitably weaken the presence of troops in other directions, and would also pose a threat to the strategic defense line of the Empire.
It should not be forgotten that the Imperial Army was mainly facing the Western Continent Group, so almost all the additional ground forces assigned to Posha Bay had to be drawn from the Northwest Theater or the Western Theater, or the reserves planned to be used in these two directions were mobilized, so as to weaken the forces that could cope with the Western Continent Group.
The lack of troops will only fuel the ambitions of the Empire to start a war!
If anything, if there is a problem with the strategic deployment of the empire, maybe even the Nuland Republic will be ready to move and enter the war at the first opportunity.
On the side of the Republic of Nuland, the issue of the deployment of the Navy was involved.
To put it simply, there are difficulties in increasing the number of troops in the Army, and the Air Force cannot send more combat forces in the short term, so the only way is for the Navy to increase investment and send more aircraft carrier battle groups to participate in the war, which will inevitably weaken its presence in the Guia direction.
If the Nuland authorities believe that the time is ripe to retake the Khowaii Islands by force, the Nuland Republic is very likely to enter the war at the first opportunity.
If you really come to this point, even if you don't lose the battle, you will suffer heavy losses.
Even according to the most optimistic estimates, without preparation, at war with two super-hegemons at the same time, the empire will lose the throne of the world's number one hegemon.
The key is to fight on two fronts.
In fact, as long as a major war broke out at this time, the empire would inevitably need to fight on two fronts.
So, the second question is, after the war with the Western Continent Group, should the northwest be the priority, or should the main battlefield be temporarily placed in Posha Bay?
This is the most serious disagreement.
As for the army, it is definitely advocating that the northwest should be given priority.
During the afternoon discussion, the army general even suggested abandoning Kuwait for the time being and keeping the oil producers on the southern shore of Posha Bay, Saudi.
The reason is that only in this way can we turn our focus to the northwest and resist the large army of the Western Continent Group in the Federal Republic of Luosha.
In response to the issue of the Poshawan oil field, the army general also clearly mentioned that the Baguo oil field in the Federal Republic of Luo Sha is also of great strategic value.
Strictly speaking, the value of the Badong oil field is actually higher than that of Posha Bay.
The reason is that as long as the oil fields of the caves are laid, the Hindan Empire will be able to obtain the oil extracted from them through railways and pipelines.
On the side of Posha Bay, there is no sea dominance, and the Empire can only be coveted.
The oil pipeline from Iraq to Syria to the port of Xinhai in the eastern continent has not yet been built!
Apparently, the Navy and the Marine Corps do not think so.
While not denying the importance of the Northwest Theater, the Navy and Marine Corps generals mentioned that there was no reason to spend more resources, let alone time, on a small country like Iraq, so in the current situation, it was enough to liberate Kuwait according to the previous plan.
It is said that there is no need to increase troops, but in essence, it is emphasizing that Posha Bay cannot be taken lightly, let alone Kuwait cannot be abandoned in order to deal with the Western Continent group.
If anything, it was actually the idea of the Marine Corps.
The army stressed that it should give priority to the northwest, so it should give priority to the northwest. Without the Army, the Marines were able to complete the liberation of Kuwait as planned.
Fundamentally, the Marine Corps clearly wanted to take this opportunity to break away from its dependence on the Army and become a veritable fourth branch of the armed forces.
As for why the Navy supports the Marine Corps, it is mainly in the Northwest Theater, where there is no place for the Navy at all, and it can only exert its strength in Posha Bay.
Of course, there is also a moral issue in this, after all, the imperial authorities have long made a commitment.
In emphasizing this point, the admiral raised a seemingly unrelated, but very important, issue.
Will the Nuland Republic sit on the sidelines?
If not, then most likely, after the outbreak of the Great War, stir up trouble on the southern flank, that is, in the southern subcontinent and Austria.
At that time, if the war in Posha Bay is not over, the Empire will fight on three or even four fronts!
More importantly, after the Army shifted its focus to the northwest, the Marine Corps had to take charge of ground battles in the Southern Theater and the Guia Theater, which were dominated by the navy.
Because the strength of the Marine Corps has not been sufficient, when it is necessary to fight on the third or even fourth front, it will inevitably be overstretched.
Of course, the same is true for the Navy.
If nothing else, naval warships have long construction cycles.
Even those mothballed warships took months to train reservists after they were opened.
It is precisely for this reason that both the Navy and the Marine Corps advocate ending combat operations in Posha Bay as soon as possible and diverting valuable forces to deal with threats from other directions.
In addition, the Air Force is more inclined to the Navy and Marine Corps schemes.
The reason is that the Air Force also does not want to fight on two fronts, let alone the risk of fighting on three or even four fronts.
Actually, it was this question that started the quarrel.
As for the other key issue, the scale of the war is so uncontroversial that a dozen generals have concluded that it will turn into a global war.
In this regard, even Qin Fenglie did not raise any objections.
The reason is also very simple, after the fire of war is ignited, it cannot be controlled.
For decades, the three blocs of countries under the command of the three super-hegemons have been preparing for a global war, and the spirits have long been tightened.
After decades of stalemate, the three parties have continued to increase their weight, and the international situation has long been in danger.
As long as the current equilibrium is upset, it will inevitably be a global war.
In Qin Fenglie's words, even if the imperial authorities do not want to fight a global war, they must prepare according to the standards of fighting a global war.
Otherwise, we will be defeated!
If even the most powerful Liangxia Empire is like this, then the weaker Riman Empire, as well as the Nuland Republic, will have illusions?
The answer is clearly no.
The leaders of the three super-hegemons are well aware that after the outbreak of war, any unrealistic illusions will bring defeat!
To put it simply, if you decide that you will not fight a global war, it is better to surrender directly.
In this regard, Zhou Yongtao did not refute it.
During the discussion, he raised only one question, two interrelated issues to be exact.
Does the Western Continent Bloc, led by the Empire, have the strength needed to defeat the Liangxia Empire and the Eastern Bloc?
Knowing that a final victory would not be achieved, why did the Manman authorities brazenly wage war?
That is, after raising these two questions, Zhou Yongtao asked Luo Youbin to send in the supper, so that the generals attending the meeting had time to think.
Obviously, the first question is actually a rhetorical question.
Even if none of the generals despised the enemy, they would not have thought that the Empire really had the strength to defeat the Liang Xia Empire.
The Manman Empire is really so powerful, I'm afraid it won't come to this point.
Among the three superpowers, the weakest is the Empire, so the internal contradictions of the Empire are the first to develop to the point of irreconcilability.
As early as more than 40 years ago, at the moment of the beginning of this long-distance race, it was already destined that the weakest one would definitely be the first to break the rules of the game.
The second question, then, cannot be explained, or the answer to the second question is diametrically opposed to what was previously speculated.
What the Hindang authorities are seeking may not be all-out war.
It was precisely in this way that after the meeting restarted, Zhou Yongtao threw out the conclusions reached in the two meetings during the day.
The fundamental purpose of the Manian authorities, even if they start a war, is not to achieve a military victory, but to divert internal contradictions through a foreign war.
At the political level, there is no doubt about this inference.
At the military level, the problem is bigger.
First of all, this inference actually proves in disguise that this war is inevitable, and it does not mean that the Liangxia Empire can avoid it by retreating!
Obviously, this is tantamount to blocking the channels for compromise.
This also proves another point of view of the military.
After the outbreak of war, no one can control the scale of the war, that is, no one can guarantee that the war will not escalate into a global war in the end.
The key is that no one knows how long it will take to fight, and how big the scale will be, in order to resolve the internal contradictions within the Manman Empire and the Western Continent Group!
Not to mention that the leaders and generals of the Liangxia Empire can't guess it, I'm afraid even Prime Minister Yuman can't guess it.
Actually, what if you guess it?
Give Zhou Yongtao a call and tell the Imperial Shoufu when the war will be suspended?
If Reinhardt really wants to do this, it will definitely not end well.
Of course, even if Prime Minister Juman told Zhou Yongtao at that time, he would never believe it.
In addition, it is possible to prove a point.
A month later, that is, the preparations for the strategic offensive were completed, and the Western Continental Army, which was dominated by the Manman army, was bound to go all out.
To put it simply, it is to devote all forces to a decisive attack.
The reason is simple.
Only by striving for a decisive victory before the Eastern Bloc completes its strategic mobilization, such as the capture of East Luosha and the declaration of national reunification by West Luosha, will it be possible to make peace with the Eastern Bloc before the war expands in scale and turns into a global war.
To put it bluntly, at that time, unless the Liang Xia authorities really intend to sacrifice tens of millions, or even hundreds of millions, to fight a global war that may not be able to achieve a complete victory, then they must accept the fait accompli and admit that Luo Sha, who was divided into two countries, has completed reunification.
Is this result acceptable?
In Qin Fenglie's words, even if Zhou Yongtao was willing to bear infamy for the sake of peace, regardless of personal honor and disgrace, millions of imperial soldiers would never agree.
800 million subjects of the Empire will not agree either!
Even if it really becomes a fait accompli at that time, it is necessary to fight back Dongluosha and advance to the east bank of the Volga River, so that there is a possibility of an armistice.
At worst, it is even necessary to prepare for the capture of West Luosha.
After all, Luo Sha has achieved reunification, and there is no reason to split again.
At this point, there is no way to avoid a global war.
If anything, it will inevitably be considered to fight the Nuland Republic at that time.
In fact, it is very likely that the Republic of Nuland entered the war before that!
Considering these views, can we still hope to control the current situation?
It is precisely because of this that in the end of the discussion, even Zhou Yongtao had to admit that unless the Manman authorities pulled back from the precipice, the third global war would break out in a month.
So, will the Manman authorities pull back from the precipice!?