"What is the situation in the Black Sea region now?" The arrival of the Portuguese mission in Albuquerque not only made the diplomatic department jump, but also made the compound of the General Intelligence Directorate not far away extremely busy. Sheng Dehong, who had just been promoted to deputy director, was questioning, and he was now an official in charge of the Ottoman Empire, so he was also very concerned about the situation in the Black Sea region, which is known as the Ottoman backyard.

"It's not very good." An analyst in black uniform dug through a large handful of documents from a filing cabinet, then picked out a few of them, and replied as he looked at them: "Although Russia and the Ottomans have reached an agreement that they are no longer in hostilities, the Russians have not all left, they still have tens of thousands of troops on the left bank of the Dnieper, and the city of Kyiv, which was divided into the Russian Empire, also has thousands of men, and the Russians do not seem to be going to give up on Ukraine, because the conditions here are so good." ”

The agreement between Russia and the Ottomans was reached last year (1681). According to the agreement, the border between the two sides was officially defined on the Dnieper River, with the Ukrainian Cossack hetmanate under Russian control on the left bank and the territory of the Ottoman puppet Cossack state on the right bank, although the famous city of Kiev was divided among the Russians.

This agreement basically objectively reflects the strength of the two countries, that is, the Ottoman Empire is now too big and has too many enemies, and the newly appointed Koplulu family's Grand Viqi wants to take advantage of the favorable opportunity of the main army of the old enemy Austrian Kingdom to confront the French abroad, so they really do not have the energy to entangle with the Russians on the northern shore of the Black Sea, so this agreement that basically maintains the status quo is a good diplomatic achievement for the Ottoman Empire. After all, their prestige is still there, and the emerging state of Russia is still a little unconfident in the face of the Ottoman Empire, which has dominated the Ottoman Empire for two centuries, so it finally signed a peace agreement with the Ottomans.

The agreement was eventually signed in Bekchisaray, the capital of the Crimean Khanate, which was also negotiated as the main Ottoman projection force on the northern shores of the Black Sea. The two sides finally decided to truce for 20 years, and Western Ukraine will empty the central and southern regions of Kyiv, using this already dilapidated area as a buffer zone between the two countries, and each side will bind East and West Ukraine from provocation at will.

It can be said that this agreement is very good for the Ottomans, Russia, and the Crimean Khanate, but it is very unfavorable for Ukraine, which was originally a unified country, and for the more than 2 million Ukrainian people living on this land, it is very disadvantageous, because it means that their country and nation will continue to be divided, and the Ukrainian steppes will still fall into tragedy.

I believe that Doroshenko and Samoilovich, who have fought all their lives, will not be able to accept this result, and even Khmelnitsky Jr., who had just been executed by the Ottomans, is very opposed. The reason is self-evident, they are all Ukrainians, they are all Cossacks, although they are hostile to each other and fight each other, but the ultimate goal is to achieve the independence and reunification of the Ukrainian state. It's just that Ukraine's strength is too weak, and the surrounding enemies are too strong, so it has gradually fallen into the work of Ottomans, Poland, Russia and other countries to compete for the Ukrainian steppes, and has fallen into a tragic ending.

Now that Western Ukraine has completed the puppet of the Ottomans, even their puppet duke Khmelnitsky Jr. has been executed because he can't control his subordinates, and the Crimean Khanate, which is responsible for monitoring them, is also ruthless, and their hard days will be long in the future, and some will be blackmailed and ravaged by others.

And what about Eastern Ukraine, in fact, it is not much better. They were even going to be removed from the name of the Ukrainian Cossack Hetmanate and replaced by the "Hetman Districts" under the Tsar, or "Little Russia", which shows the attitude of the Russians. In particular, the Russians have recently sent many officials to the various settlements of eastern Ukraine, which has become more prosperous in recent years because of the unpopularity and repeated defeats of the Western Ukrainian government, and the large population it has attracted, so that the regions east of the Dnieper River have prospered rapidly in recent years, which is obviously an attempt to divide the power of the Cossacks at all levels, and eventually take this so-called "Little Russia" into the bag.

Some people may say that Russia has ruled Ukraine, and perhaps the people of eastern Ukraine will be free from the pain of war and live in peace and tranquility. This turned out to be a shameful conjecture, and in the eyes of Moscow, their eastern Ukraine was merely a natural barrier against the northward advance of the Crimean Tatar cavalry from the invasion of the soft hinterland by these fierce nomads, destroying local towns and agricultural facilities. Therefore, the people of Eastern Ukraine never had much respite, and the Russians constantly demanded that they contribute money, food, horses and horses to be organized and trained together with the Russian troops stationed there (the supply of these Russian troops may be borne by the people of Eastern Ukraine) as the first line of resistance to the Tatars. And the first line, as everyone knows, is easy to break through, so there is no need for any investment and construction, just a barrier and buffer zone, so this is doomed to the tragedy of eastern Ukraine.

Over the years, they have penetrated deeply into the nearby Crimean Khanate, and have many "informants" among the upper echelons of its capital, Beckchisale, and the feudal manor owners on the northern shore of the Black Sea, providing a steady stream of information for the eastern bank, so they have a timely understanding of the changing situation in the Ukrainian steppes, and they are not blind to it.

And the chaos in Ukraine naturally makes people on the east coast worry about whether their local investment and market can be guaranteed. In particular, the rise of Russia is becoming more and more obvious, the Ottoman Empire is in the twilight, although the Crimean Khanate has not yet shown signs of weakening - and even in recent years the national strength has increased - but after all, it is not the same size as Russia, once a major war breaks out, it may not be able to withstand the 100,000 troops that the Russians may mobilize, and the Black Sea, the "hospitable sea", may be out of the control of the people on the east coast in the near future.

"What a brute bull in Russia!" Sheng Dehong groaned when he heard this, and then said in a helpless tone: "The huge Russian Empire is like a brute bull with infinite strength, we once pulled its horns hard to make it turn in another direction, and no longer oppose us in the east. If the bull starts to ram southward again, we now have to think of a way to turn its weight to the west and fight the Poles and Swedes. ”

"Director, is it necessary for us to target the Russians like this? It may seem like a thankless task. Even if the Russians did occupy the entire Ukrainian steppe and drive the Crimeans into the peninsula to the south, it wouldn't necessarily be a catastrophe for us, would it? Our Don, Dnieper, Danube trade is still sustainable, right? The young analyst brought Sheng Dehong a cup of strong coffee and asked puzzledly.

"You speak like a businessman, not a qualified informant." Sheng Dehong glanced at the other party and said, "Can this kind of thing be measured by business?" The Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire, the Kingdom of France, and even China and India, these huge continental countries are all our targets of containment, and we should not stop doing it because of difficulties, so what do we apply for funding every year? Drinking coffee and reading the newspaper? The unification of the entire northern shore of the Black Sea by the Russian Empire is not necessarily a bad thing for our trade on the three rivers, and may even bring a lot of convenience because of political unity, but will this money make up for our huge strategic losses? Don't think that we are just a small country in the New World with a population of four or five million, and we think that containing Russia is a thankless task, and some things are better done sooner than later, and later than not. ”

"Inducing them to move westward is one of our main strategies, and in addition to appropriately strengthening our influence on Russia, it is also important to add more resistance to them on the northern shore of the Black Sea. We have strengthened the Crimean Khanate, and at the same time introduced Genoia, Venice, and other powers on the northern shores of the Black Sea, and if we can bring in some other European countries, and at the same time increase the forces that we can control or influence locally, it will be the royal way to put pressure on the Russians. Sheng Dehong said: "So it is very important for the Portuguese to come to us at this time." Their country is also short of food, and often asks for it from the Amsterdam market, and if we introduce it to the northern shore of the Black Sea, and set up many trading posts and docks there, like the Genaeans and Venetians, it will be a sure thing for us. ”

Regarding the grain-producing areas on the northern shore of the Black Sea, the people on the eastern coast had a private agreement with Venice and Geno*a, that is, in the event of an accident due to the Russians, then everyone could form a joint force to join the Ottoman side to intervene. The share of trade between the two Italian states and Russia was almost non-existent, and contact was scarce, and they were thousands of miles apart, so there was no burden to oppose Russia. Therefore, it should not be a problem for the two countries to build an armed force of several thousand troops. If we add in the armed forces of about 1,000 men in the possession of the easterners, and the 3,000 men promised by the Portuguese, the number of this force may at most increase to nearly 10,000.

These 10,000 people, but they are all Western European armies with equipment and tactics that are higher than Russia's, and their combat effectiveness still exceeds that of ordinary Russian troops, although because of language barriers, labor expeditions will lead to a certain decline in combat effectiveness and morale, but it is still a strong force, with tens of thousands of cavalry of the Crimean Khanate and Cossack infantry in Western Ukraine, it may not be able to withstand the first wave of offensives, and wait until the Ottoman Empire adjusts its direction and dispatches the elite main force to stabilize the battle line.

"Of course, the means of war are our last resort, because no one can predict the outcome or defeat. The best way for us to force Russia westward is to maintain a certain level of economic and trade ties with them, that is, to make them slowly dependent on our goods and technology (but never learn the most advanced, cutting-edge things, not even the inferior ones), and at a critical moment we threaten to cut off trade, no longer provide technical help, and let the Russians sober their heads, which is the best way. Sheng Dehong said: "If the Russian card is played well, it will also play a very huge role in our pursuit of various interests in the vast Central European region." ”

The analyst nodded again and again, but was still a little unimpressed. He had studied Russia in depth, knew their national character, and always felt that if there was a day when the people on the east coast threatened them by various means not to go south to annex the northern shore of the Black Sea, the Russians might not buy it, and they might even be very angry, and there was a sense of betrayal. Especially when the tsar's power is very large, it is really difficult to say what effect this method will have, but at this time, you don't have to talk back to your boss, and you will talk to him later when you have time.

"Later, we may work with the people from the War Department to send people to Lisbon to inspect the equipment and combat capabilities of the Portuguese soldiers, and to find out if they are capable of confronting the Russians. If not, the Portuguese government, led by Prince Pedro, the regent, may need to be advised to invest more in the army to improve its combat effectiveness. How about it, Xiao Qin, are you interested in going to Lisbon to be stationed abroad, there is still a shortage of people in the office that is about to be set up there, our division is going to draw someone over, I hope this person is you. Sheng Dehong put down the white porcelain coffee cup in his hand and asked with a smile.

"Director, if you want me to go, of course I have no opinion." Analyst Xiao Qin said: "The Portuguese army is actually still okay, much stronger than the Spanish one. In the early years, the British helped them to carry out reforms, and later during the war between France and Spain, the Duke of Schselberg from Paris retrained the Portuguese army and introduced the French military training and logistics system, so the combat effectiveness improved rapidly, as evidenced by the defeat of the superior Spanish army in the next two battles. Not much time has passed, and I don't think the Portuguese Army has degraded so quickly, and if we help, their combat effectiveness will recover to a considerable extent. ”

"Hmm." Sheng Dehong nodded when he heard this, and then admonished: "At the same time, we must also pay attention to collecting all kinds of intelligence between Portugal and Britain. Once we have a foothold there and access to a full-fledged market, it should be easy. The Portuguese are still in a hot fight with the British, and by investigating the information of the Portuguese, we should be able to learn a lot of news about British industry and business and even politics, and it must be of great reference value. Of course, these are all things that you need to be responsible to the head of Iberia, and I hope you will do a good job in your new role. ”