Xie Qian really didn't know the bottom in his heart, and he had played a recital with the theme of "stopping the war" before, so Xie Qian couldn't help but want to ask Shen Xi and listen to his opinions. Pen, fun, pavilion www. biquge。 info

Shen Xi asked, "Does the elder want to hear the truth, or is it flattery?" ”

Xie Qian couldn't help but say angrily: "Let your kid say that there is a chance of winning, but you still have to lie and deceive?" If you don't have a score in your heart, just roughly say a number, and the old man ponders it...... Listen to your flattery! ”

Some things can't stand scrutiny, Xie Qian listened to Shen Xi's words, and thought that Shen Xi intended to prevaricate, but after a little pondering, he realized that if Shen Xi wanted to be fooled, he just had to say fifty or sixty percent, and there was no need to beat around the bush.

Then Shen Xi's words must have a mystery.

Shen Xi said: "Since it is flattery, in the eyes of the younger generation, in this battle, I have a chance of winning by seven or eight points if I am fully prepared." ”

"You boy, is this your flattery? I have been preparing for war for a long time, the food and grass materials are sufficient, and the artillery is also fully equipped, and the prosperity of the army is unprecedented in decades, and you actually say that there is only a seventy or eighty percent chance of victory? If you let the world hear this, your saliva will drown you! ”

Xie Qian was a little disdainful.

Shen Xi asked rhetorically: "That Pavilion Elder thinks that this battle should be ninety percent or even completely certain?" ”

Only then did Xie Qian realize that he was asking Shen Xi's opinion.

Shen Xi said that there is a seventy or eighty percent chance of winning, and he is finally reasonable, and his heart is a little more stable, but this "seventy or eighty percent chance" is based on "flattery".

Xie Qian said: "You go on!" ”

"Since the elder said that my Ming Dynasty has been preparing for war for a long time, and the soldiers, horses, grain and grass are all fully prepared, then dare to ask, in the previous few major battles, the soldiers and horses of my Ming soldiers were insufficient, and the soldiers were hungry on the battlefield with unbladed weapons?" Shen Xi asked, and then added: "For example, in the fourteenth year of orthodoxy, Yingzong led an army of 500,000 out of the fortress......"

Xie Qian said dissatisfiedly: "Why do you always talk about my dynasty with the change of the civil fort? Now it is different from the past, the Varat has long been weakened by civil strife, the Tatars have been fighting among themselves before, and we have the advantage of artillery fire, are not these all the reasons for victory? ”

Shen Xi sighed lightly: "As an auxiliary minister, the elder of the pavilion should know more about the preparation of armaments, grain and grass than the younger generation, this time the troops, although the grain and grass materials are sufficient, but it is impossible to say that there is a fundamental improvement, I sent troops in the Ming Dynasty, and the winning point lies in the internal strife in the Tatars, but dare to ask the Tatar civil war for several years, the Dayan Department has long had the upper hand, but it has not been able to exterminate the fire sieve and other tribes, but why?" ”

Xie Qian thought for a while: "How can the old man know about Beiyi's affairs?" ”

"Actually, it's not difficult to understand, it's just that the elder doesn't want to say it......"

Shen Xi analyzed: "The root of the Tatar civil strife lies in the struggle for the position of the Great Khan of the Mongols, even if the Dayan Department tries its best to eliminate the Mongol tribes in southern China such as the Fire Sieve Tribe, and still has to face potential opponents such as Uliangha and Wara, it can be described as full of dangers, trembling at every step, walking on thin ice, and refusing to complete the battle. ”

"No matter how strong the Dayan Department is, it has a population of more than 100,000 people, and the living environment on the grassland is harsh, even if it is a few generations later, the population of the Dayan Department will not grow significantly, and the population remains the same, how can the grassland be occupied? What they want to gain is actually just the status of the overlord of the grassland, so that the rest of the ministries will obey their orders. ”

"But the Fire Sieve and the rest of the tribes, unwilling to sit idly by, are at war with the Dayan tribe, and although they are outstretched, they still have the capital to maintain the existence of the tribe due to the particularity of the grassland."

"Several parties have been fighting for many years, and it is a time when people are sleepy and tired, but for the sake of face, no one is willing to give up easily, and at this time, there must be external contradictions to make all parties within them compromise. And my Ming Dynasty sent troops, which is an opportunity for the Dayan Department and the Fire Sieve and other tribes to rebuild. ”

"At that time, the Dayan Ministry will target the Daming Tree and promise all the benefits after defeating the Daming, and it will quickly establish its position as the overlord of the grassland. Once the Tatar forces were at his disposal, with the might of the Mongol cavalry, the elder should have a clear idea of what the situation would be. ”

"Since the elder also mentioned the artillery that the junior introduced from the Franco, the junior also talked about it by the way. The Franc cannon seems to be powerful, but its attack range is limited, and it can be taken by surprise and unprepared, but it cannot be short-handed. Once the Tatar cavalry was on guard, spread out the formation, flanked it, or made a detour to the rear to attack, the artillery was so heavy that it was difficult to turn the muzzle, and it was only necessary to attack with fast horses, and the enemy and us were entangled, and the artillery would be useless. ”

"Finally, let's talk about the way to use soldiers. There are many nobles in the northwest, and most of the officers and soldiers are hereditary military households, and the Central Plains Dynasty built the Great Wall and fortresses and cities, and relied on the geographical advantages to deal with the northern barbarians. Since ancient times, in the face of the threat of the northern nomads, the Central Plains Dynasty has mostly taken a defensive position, even if it is driven straight in, and the wolf is sealed, it will not be long before it will return to the Great Wall, and the people's wealth has been exhausted at that time, and the gains outweigh the losses. ”

If you take the initiative to open the door and fight with the thieves outside the courtyard wall, it is good to win, and the thieves can be eliminated in a short time, and the high-walled compound can be safe. But if it fails, it will destroy the wall, giving the thieves a good opportunity to take advantage of the situation! ”

Speaking of this, Shen Xi concluded: "This battle is actually based on not fighting. ”

Xie Qian listened to Shen Xi's analysis, and although he felt that there was some truth, he still couldn't help but reprimand: "You kid, you just like to grow barbarians and destroy your own prestige, it's unreasonable!" In your opinion, what is the chance of winning this battle for me, according to the actual situation? ”

Shen Xi said: "If the troops are withdrawn in time, the odds of winning should be seventy percent; If you want to get the feat of sealing the wolf Juxu in this battle and win with it, there is no chance of winning; If it goes head-to-head, the purpose is to annihilate the opponent's living force, less than fifty percent ......"

Xie Qian patted the table and said sharply: "Then let me ask you, if our army sends troops, the Tatars will be defeated and retreated, and our army will kill more than 10,000 soldiers, and the morale will be greatly boosted...... Even if you lose yourself above the Tatars, and ask you, what are the chances of winning? ”

Shen Xi pondered for a moment and said a relatively objective number: "Thirty percent!" ”

……

……

When Shen Xi said the number, Xie Qian's face became extremely ugly.

If Shen Xi's analysis is unreasonable, and he just says a number, then Xie Qian can be regarded as a joke. But Xie Qian listened to Shen Xi's analysis with reasonable evidence, and even took into account the cause and effect of the Tatar civil strife, and after this analysis, he came up with a "three-percent chance of winning", which made him feel an inexplicable pressure.

This is a war with no way out, and it is also the choice of Emperor Hongzhi, and no one can stop this war from happening.

Xie Qian didn't reprimand Shen Xi, he didn't have a good attitude before, he wanted Shen Xi to analyze more rationally, but now his tone was calm, and he asked, "What about the other seventy?" ”

"The other seventy percent, it all depends on whether the person with the troops can bring back the remnants of my Ming army from the battlefield, if the withdrawal of troops is blocked, and there is no follow-up reinforcement of troops and horses, the commander of the army who stayed in the rear has no determination to fight bloodlessly, and the rout that did not occur three years ago...... It may not be avoidable! Shen Xi replied helplessly.

Xie Qian suddenly became annoyed, and shouted: "I knew this was the case, so I might as well simply send you to the battlefield!" Your analysis is very good, and I don't see you taking the initiative to ask Ying to serve the court? ”

"Do you know what Liu Shiyong is going to let you do? Let you be the vanguard, attract the attention of the Tatars, and gather the Tatar soldiers and horses to you like a magnet, and then he calmly commands and dispatches the troops and horses, forming a counter-encirclement, and laying the opportunity for victory in one fell swoop! ”

"If one person is exchanged for the lives of tens of thousands of my Ming soldiers and ensures the peace of the people of my Central Plains, what is the right sacrifice?"

In Shen Xi's view, his life only belongs to himself, and others can't trade his life. Although he didn't want to hear such words, he felt that Xie Qian's analysis was not wrong. Shen Xi knew that when he went to the northwest, he was still on a confidential errand like the governor of Yansui, which would help the final result.

Emperor Hongzhi was not bound by Shen Xi's qualifications and age in this regard, and his selection was quite accurate.

Xie Qian was corrupt for selfishness, and Shen Xi also chose the latter in front of the country and his own life.

Shen Xi said: "Don't be angry, it's too early to say everything, the person who led the troops is Liu Shangshu, the Ming soldiers and horses have not moved, and the Tatars are not moving now......"

Xie Qian said angrily: "You kid, you said so much to the old man, and now you want to clear up the relationship?" Don't forget, the old man also has his own judgment, the old man has been panicking recently, and he always feels that there may be something wrong here, and now that he thinks about it, the odds are far from being fully sure of His Majesty's expectations. ”

"If there is a chance of winning six or seven percent, this battle can be expected, but if there are only two or three percent...... I thank Yuqiao for not wanting to be a sinner of Da Ming yet! ”

After speaking, Xie Qian had the urge to touch the pen to write a notebook.

Of course, Shen Xi knew what Xie Qian was going to do, so he naturally said to the Son of Heaven and asked the Son of Heaven to "stop the war", according to the plan drawn up by Shen Xi before, and the meaning of the feint attack would be over, so why bother to do it?

But Shen Xi knew that if Xie Qian made another mistake of being sloppy and straightforward, it would be purely self-inflicted.

One performance has already made the emperor lose face, Zhu Youzhu is still angry, and immediately put on another one, which is almost like adding fuel to the fire.

"Pavilion Elder, please think twice!"

Shen Xi said, "Instead of admonishing Your Majesty, it is better to repair the book to the three sides, analyze the key points and Liu Shangshu know, the so-called generals will not accept the orders of the monarch outside, even if Your Majesty's fighting spirit is resolute, but as long as Liu Shangshu sees it well, he will accept it, then my Ming soldiers and horses can win, this is the best policy." ”

"Otherwise, the elder of the pavilion will not be able to make His Majesty take back his life, and he will have to take himself back, why bother?"

Xie Qian was also dazed by worry and fear, and after thinking about Shen Xi's words a little calmly, he felt that it made sense.

If you talk to the emperor again, it does seem that he is loyal, but there is no use for fart, the emperor should still send troops, but he will be extremely disgusted with him, not only can he not help the soldiers of the three armies and the people of the world, but he will harm himself, which is really unwise.

But let him repair the book to Liu Daxia, and he couldn't save face for a while.

Thinking of turning his face with Liu Daxia before, it was all because of Shen Xi, but now I can see that Liu Daxia was not at fault for sending Shen Xi to the northwest, and there was still a big difference between Shen Xi and no Shen Xi in the battle of the northwest, and it was not that Liu Daxia used the excuse to make things difficult and cause harm.

Xie Qian, as the party at fault, took the initiative to write this letter, which was tantamount to slapping himself in the face.

Dilemma! (To be continued.) )