Chapter 327: The Moroccan crisis is both a danger and an opportunity
"The French presented a series of proposals to the Sultan of Morocco on a reform plan, demanding that Morocco carry out comprehensive reforms including administrative, financial, military and diplomatic reforms, as demanded by the French." Jochen looked at the information submitted by Mashal and was a little annoyed: "Build yì? This wording is an ultimatum, right? ”
Although he was mentally prepared for the inevitable outbreak of confrontation between Germany and France on the Moroccan issue, Jochen was still very unhappy when the incident actually happened. Neither in history nor in the present, it is not a good time for the French to attack Germany on the Moroccan question, and it is difficult to understand the thinking circuit of the French politicians.
Especially now that Germany is far more powerful than it was in history, where did the French get the confidence that their actions would not provoke an overreaction from the Germans? Do you really think that with the support of the British, everything will be fine? Even if Britain supports you, it is still unknown how far it can go, where do you get your confidence?
"The French must have made a secret agreement with the Spaniards, otherwise they would not have issued such an ultimatum-like letter so soon after taking out a loan to Morocco and taking control of foreign trade and finance." "It is clear that the French have emboldened and unscrupulous in the Moroccan question with the tacit approval of Spain and England," Marchar analyzed. ”
"My dear uncle had apparently come to an agreement with the French on the Moroccan question when he visited France, and we were kept in the dark, and now the French have a secret agreement with Spain, and apparently they have not taken us into account." Jochen said blandly.
Although Jochen's tone was flat, everyone could see that His Majesty the Emperor's feelings were very bad.
"The secret agreement between Britain and France on the Moroccan issue ignores our country's interests on the Moroccan issue and violates the British commitment to our country back then. Billo has a tough attitude to build yì to.
"The French gave Morocco an ultimatum. There will definitely be the next step, Morocco is a sovereign country after all, it is impossible to get Sultan Abdulaziz to agree to such terms, the French will definitely have the next action to force Sultan Abdulaziz, and if necessary, even overthrow Sudan to achieve full control of Morocco. Mashal speculated.
Machar's speculation was quite correct. Historically, France has sent a special delegation to Morocco, nominally to help Morocco carry out reforms in accordance with the plan set out in the Founding Papers, but in fact to overthrow Sultan Abdulaziz.
Jochen nodded to Mashal, indicating that he agreed with his reasoning: "So we need to make our attitude clear to the Moroccan government, so that they understand that Germany will never allow the French to succeed in their ends, so that they can have the confidence to reject the unreasonable demands of the French." ”
"If the French are obsessed, we have to teach them a profound lesson! Now the Russians are not at all concerned with our affairs, and in 1892 we were ready to teach them a lesson, and now we can teach them a lesson as well! Schlieffen instigated.
At the time of the dissolution of Austria-Hungary, the Russians would not meddle because they had reached an agreement with Germany. Now the Russians are not nosy, so Schlieffen sees this as another good opportunity to make a move against France in 15 years, and the military, which has long hoped for a preventive war to bring Germany peace for another 30 years, is excited about such an opportunity.
"If we make a military threat against France, will it provoke a strong reaction from the British?" Mashal asked, somewhat worried.
"What can the British do if they react? The worst-case scenario would be to send 100,000 expeditionary forces to assist the French in the war, which would not pose us any threat at all! Schlieffen said disdainfully, and even Schlieffen was happy to see the British enter the war, because then Germany would be able to use the British as the first to enter the war, so that they would no longer have to abide by the agreement. It is possible to attack Belgium with free hands and feet, and carry out the Schlieffen plan.
Even if the Schlieffen plan is not yet perfect. The German Army's tactical and equipment reforms were not yet complete, but there was still little pressure on the French military to be unable to form an effective military force tossed by its own romantic reforms. As for the army of the British, Schlieffen did not pay attention to it at all.
And he is about to retire, if Germany and France go to war at this time, then his plan can be carried out, and he can completely defeat France. This is also an unparalleled achievement for Schlieffen, and he hopes to get the same feats as Moltke Sr!
"Well, Billo and Schlieffen are right, I don't think we can back down on the Moroccan issue." Jochen said categorically: "This is not just a matter of colonial interests, but also a mere Moroccan that brings us less than Qingdao in the Far East, which has not been building for a long time. But this is a question of whether Germany has a place in colonial affairs!
Our interests in the colonies have been divided and sacrificed by other countries through secret dealings in private, and we are unable to defend and fight, so what say do we have in colonial affairs in the future?! What do the people think of a government that is powerless to do anything while its national interests are being violated? So in this matter we must make the French realize that their provocation is very stupid!
Let us first greet the French at our chargé d'affaires in Tangier, make our position clear and make them understand that the situation in Morocco is not something that the French can do with it. Also, Adolf, convey to the parliament that we will not make concessions on the Moroccan question, so that those parliamentarians are mentally prepared that if the French do not know the times, then we will give them war! ”
Jochen's toughness was emboldened, because the French also understood that France could not independently face the attack of the superior German army when the Russians were too busy to take care of themselves, and the fierce reaction of the Germans caused by the French government's actions after reaching an agreement with Britain and Spain was completely unexpected by the French.
Historically, in the face of the tough attitude of the Germans, the extremely weak France could only beg for a compromise with Germany, and the French government and parliament forced the revanchist and foreign minister Delcasser, who was revanchist against Germany, to resign, and French Prime Minister Rovière, who was inclined to ease with Germany, concurrently served as foreign minister, advocating a direct Franco-German negotiation solution to the Moroccan problem. This is a major diplomatic failure of the French government.
To the clumsy appearance of the French, Wilhelm II commented contemptuously: "I threw a white glove at the French, and the French did not dare to pick it up." ”
However, Germany's previous policy was that "all criticism and attacks should be as respectful as possible for the feelings of the French people, and should be directed against De Carce's systematic, arrogant, and clumsy anti-German policy." ”
In other words, the German top leadership headed by Wilhelm II did not want to continue to deteriorate German-French relations because of this, so the Germans, who believed that Germany's strategic goals had been achieved, decided not to pursue France fiercely on the Moroccan issue, and could adopt a relatively tolerant policy to win over France.
Believing that France's plan to dominate Morocco was detrimental to the interests of all the Great Powers, and that it hoped to use an international conference to distract France from its hatred and resentment against Germany, Germany insisted on convening an international conference to resolve the issue.
Germany, naively eager for "world justice", foolishly turned its bilateral issue with France into a multilateral one, and the result was predictable, as the British would have liked, after the great powers that had signed the Madrid Convention gathered in Algecharas, Spain, after protracted negotiations, only Austria-Hungary and Morocco supported Germany among the 13 participating countries. Germany was forced to make concessions despite its clear military superiority, leading to the most humiliating diplomatic defeat since the founding of the German Empire.
In Jochen's view, Germany does not care about the hatred and dissatisfaction of the French at all, and there is no possibility of reconciliation between Germany and France, so why should it care about the feelings of the French? Historically, the two ends of the snake and mouse in the early stage of the British caused the French to have no supporters at all, and this move of the British would have led to a rift between the alliance between Britain and France, which had just been established, and as long as William II solved the Moroccan problem at this time, then even if he could not win over France, he could also drive a wedge between Britain and France.
Further, even if Britain showed its support for France from the beginning, Germany could still not care, the British expeditionary force of 100,000 people was meaningless in front of the German Army, the Royal Navy was indeed a huge threat, but there was no need to fight on two fronts, and France, which was afraid of war, had to beg for peace even if it mustered up the courage to resist, after suffering huge losses in the early stage.
The blockade of the Royal Navy would be equally meaningless to Germany as long as the time of the war was kept short, and the strategic objectives of Germany were appropriately reduced, and only a preventive war was carried out, and no war of annihilation was pursued as planned by Schlieffen.
And the current German Royal Navy is not a soft persimmon that the British can handle at will, even if the decisive battle of surface ships is still at a disadvantage, but the ability to let the British suffer some dark losses is still there, so for Morocco such a place that has little to do with itself to lose 100,000 land forces and a few valuable capital ships, such a loss-making transaction The British should also weigh it carefully, not to mention that the German Royal Navy still has 4 hole cards that can be turned over immediately, and it is still unknown whether the Royal Navy dares to act rashly at that time.
In this case, even if you have a fight, it is not something that is unacceptable, so Jochen has a tough heart. (To be continued......)