On June 17, 1887, shortly after Crown Prince Frederick's surgery, stimulated by the second Franco-German crisis in May, Bismarck, the old chancellor, who felt that war between Germany and France was imminent, concluded a tongue twister treaty between Germany and Russia to obtain a commitment that Russia would not participate in the Franco-German war for the time being, which was the Reinsurance Treaty.

The treaty provided that one of the contracting parties was to remain neutral in good faith in the event of war with a third country (except France and Austria-Hungary), and that Germany recognized the legitimacy of Russia's superiority in Bulgaria and East Rumelia. The parties agreed to maintain the status quo in the Balkans and reaffirmed the principle already agreed in 1881 that Russia and Germany would jointly exert pressure on Ottoman Turkey and not allow foreign warships other than the countries bordering the Black Sea to enter the Bosphorus-Marmara-Dardanha Strait.

This boring treaty, which in Jochen's opinion was useless, was Bismarck's "game of five flying balls." The intention is to ease the German-Russian relations, which have been messed up by themselves.

Uniting Tsarist Russia has always been the established strategy of the German Emperor Wilhelm I. And it was Bismarck, whom many later generations believed to be preserving German-Russian relations. The rupture of German-Russian relations was laid as early as the Berlin Conference on June 13, 1871, when Bismarck, who was ostensibly neutral, actually favored Britain and Austria-Hungary, and the conference eventually forced Tsarist Russia to give up many lands, Austria-Hungary became one of the dominant powers in the Balkans and southern Europe, while Turkey gained what was lost on the battlefield through diplomatic means. Tsarist Russia, which was the victorious side of the Turkish-Russian War, turned out to be a de facto loser.

There is an oil painting of this meeting in history (Note 1), and even the oil painting depicts the expectations of the Ottoman delegates for Germany and the dissatisfaction of the Tsarist representatives with Germany, and Bismarck's position in the painting hints at his position.

The biggest loser in this conference was ostensibly Tsarist Russia, and then in fact the real loser was Germany. Because Germany turned against Tsarist Russia because of the things that it couldn't fight, and it didn't get any benefit from Austria-Hungary. And it was precisely because of Bismarck's actions that he led the surging public opinion of Tsarist Russia and other Slavic fraternal countries, and was frightened by the nightmare of a possible alliance between Tsarist Russia and France, despite the strong opposition of Wilhelm I, Bismarck made another stupid move and even concluded the German-Austrian alliance treaty. This treaty, which left Europe in the next half century, was to support Germany and Austria in the event of an attack by Russia; But war broke out between Germany and France, and Austria-Hungary remained neutral; If Russia entered the war, Germany and Austria fought side by side.

The treaty was ostensibly an alliance between Germany and Austria against Russia and France, and ultimately forced Tsarist Russia to comply, thus "skillfully" maintaining the balance of power in Europe. And in 1881 Russia did join the Three Emperors' Alliance. But in fact, this strategy of "uniting Austria to contain Russia" has brought Germany to the brink of war.

First of all, according to the experience of Prussia and Germany for many years, if you want to avoid fighting on two fronts, you must unite with Tsarist Russia. Because Tsarist Russia's enormous strategic depth and abundant resources simply could not yield to it. Austria-Hungary, as a dual monarchy and a multi-ethnic state, is very fragile as a whole, so Austria-Hungary has nothing to worry about for Germany. And to offend Tsarist Russia for the sake of Austria-Hungary is purely unwise. Assuming that fighting against France and Austria at the same time was not worth mentioning for Germany at all, but a war with Tsarist Russia was a real nightmare. After that, the German General Staff had to be busy drafting a policy for dealing with operations on both the eastern and western fronts. And the Schlieffen Project, which was born in response to this predicament, directly led to the destruction of the empire 40 years later.

Second, there were irreconcilable contradictions between Austria-Hungary and Tsarist Russia in the Balkans. The complex environment of the region made the possibility of war extremely high, and if war broke out, Germany would be caught between Austria-Hungary and Tsarist Russia. And Russia, in order to confront Germany, must ally with France. And once Austria-Hungary goes to war with Tsarist Russia, it will inevitably drag Germany into the water. Moreover, if Germany and Austria are allied, Austria-Hungary will take a tough attitude towards Tsarist Russia, then Germany will inevitably fall into the dilemma of fighting on two fronts because of the situation in the Balkans.

Thirdly, the success of the Berlin Conference, the dying Ottoman Turkey would have taken Germany as its savior against Tsarist Russia. But the Turkish-Russian war was fought on and off for more than 300 years. The feud between them is worse than that of Germany and France. So the United Turkey is anti-Russian. Therefore, the Ottoman friendship was not only not a good thing for Germany, but it would have caused it to be on fire.

Fourth, the German entry into the Ottomans not only blocked Russia's southward exit, but also represented Germany's entry into the East, thus threatening British interests in the Middle East and India. So even if Britain was unwilling for Tsarist Russia to defeat Ottoman Turkey and enter the Mediterranean, it was equally reluctant for Germany to reach out into the Ottoman Sea.

Bismarck did not realize that Germany at this time was already embattled. Sure enough, the Bulgarian-Serbian crisis of 1885 led to a rupture in relations between Austria-Hungary and Tsarist Russia. In order to prevent Germany from entering the war, Tsarist Russia approached France as quickly as possible. The Franco-Russian threat forced Bismarck to prepare for war against Russia, and violently raised tariffs, leading Tsarist Russia to increase the tax rate on German exports of oats and wheat by 50%, and Tsarist Russia, in retaliation, announced a ban on foreigners owning land in its western provinces, leading German immigrants to suffer economic losses. Then Bismarck,-for-tat, announced the Lombardy Act, which abolished the power of Tsarist Russia to issue bonds in Berlin, and then transferred all its deposits to Paris, and immediately received a loan of 100 million francs from the French government. This led directly to the formation of the economic basis of the Franco-Russian alliance.

Seeing that the situation was out of control, Bismarck took advantage of the second crisis between Germany and France to come up with this "reinsurance treaty". However, this treaty not only had no doubt about Germany's security, but also allowed Germany to formally assume the strategic burden of the Balkan powder keg.

First of all, when Tsarist Russia and Austria-Hungary went to war, especially if Tsarist Russia made the first move, Germany had to commit all its forces until the war was won, thanks to the German-Austrian alliance treaty. Even Bismarck himself was well aware of this, and he once wrote in a letter: "Once Russia and Austria go to war, no matter who is attacking it, Germany will have no choice but to enter the war on the side of Austria-Hungary." And this is exactly what Emperor Wilhelm I firmly opposed. So Bismarck has already turned "United Russia" into "United Austria" and "anti-Russian".

Second, if France and Germany went to war, Russia would not even have to abide by the obligation of "good faith neutrality." So what's the point of reinsurance?

Thirdly, this treaty did not prevent Tsarist Russia and France from forming an alliance.

Fourth, Germany was in a dilemma if a conflict of interest erupted in the Balkans, especially between Ottoman Turkey and Tsarist Russia.

Fifth, the treaty attached a condition that "foreign warships outside the Black Sea coast will not be allowed to enter the Bosphorus-Marmara-Dardania Strait", so if Britain, France, Italy, Austria-Hungary want to interfere in the Russian-Turkish conflict, what should they do? This effectively acquiesced in Tsarist Russia's use of Ottoman Turkey as a no-to blockade.

Sixth, the secret treaty did not take into account the feelings of Britain and Austria-Hungary at all. And it was also completely contrary to the interests of Austria-Hungary. So before betraying the interests of Tsarist Russia to befriend Austria-Hungary, and now betraying the interests of Austria-Hungary to befriend Tsarist Russia, this kind of tightrope balance game should really be so fun?

Obviously, Bismarck's logic was very simple, he believed that as long as Germany did not fall into an "offensive" war, then concentrate on defense, Germany would be safe, and could balance Tsarist Russia, Austria-Hungary, and France. He can let Germany continue to be the "arbiter of Europe". The old chancellor naively believed that the trick he had used to trick Napoleon III into acting first and thus leading to the Franco-Prussian War would ensure the security of Germany in the future. But in an age when States determine their patterns of behaviour primarily on the basis of their own interests, it would be pretentious to hope for peace by merely hoping for such so-called treaties. Moreover, Germany did not receive any substantive guarantees of national security from Tsarist Russia, except for a lot of sacrifices in the interests of others to meet the demands of Tsarist Russia.

So this complex, cumbersome, and elaborate treaty is practically worthless. But his grandfather, William I, was old and not as energetic as before, and he had basically become a shopkeeper; His father, Crown Prince Frederick, needed to recuperate due to surgery. No one can stop this old stubborn who has taken full control of the Imperial Parliament. If Yoheng, the crown prince, is strong, it will be light to be ignored at that time, and it is considered that the yellow-mouthed child is meddling in military affairs, and it is not impossible to directly reprimand himself without giving face, this can work against William I, can directly express his dissatisfaction with Crown Prince Frederick, and even can argue with Wilhelm II several times in history.

So Jochen could only watch Bismarck sign this boring treaty despite the opposition of almost all the diplomats of the empire. Although these diplomats did not look far enough, they simply believed that the signing of this treaty was detrimental to the interests of Austria-Hungary and contrary to the pro-British diplomatic line. They did not realize that tying Germany to the Austro-Hungarian chariot was in fact self-defeating. Jochen wasn't worried about the treaty that was signed and not signed. Rather, I am worried that less than 1 month after the signing of the treaty, a large number of people will follow. Troublesome.

But it was clear that Jochen couldn't make a big deal about what hadn't happened yet. Now, instead of his recuperating father, he is going to England to celebrate the 50th anniversary of his grandmother, Queen Victoria, on the throne. So no matter what the future holds, I'll have to wait until I come back from the UK.

Note 1: Picture source: Oil painting at the Berlin Conference (detail)

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