Pei Gai's analysis of the situation is very precise to the so-called "precise", that is, it may not be all facts, and even deliberately distorted, but it does sound very reasonable.

Liu Yao had long been ignorant of his duckweed-like situation, so Liu allowed him to be the king of Qin, and he immediately agreed to the matter of "Qingjun's side", and when Liu Cangshi named him King Yong, he sold Liu on the spot. For what? Isn't it just to be able to have a solid base of your own?

Since entering Chang'an four years ago and capturing Sima Mo, Liu Yao has regarded Guanzhong as his own forbidden territory and does not allow others to touch it. This time, I thought that I could kill under Chang'an City in one go, at least recapture Feng Yi and Beidi Second County, but who would have thought that I would hit Pei Gai's hard stone head-on. The reason why he didn't think about it further before was that he thought that after Jia Kai's death, it was not difficult for Guanzhong to be the same in the original history, and in about half a year, he should enter Chang'an City.

The most important thing is that Pei should be right, although he betrayed Liu, it is impossible for him to bridge the gap between him and Liu Can, but because of the "Qingjun side", the two are harmonious on the surface, and there is an oath, but in fact they are even more incompatible. So he sent an envoy to ask the imperial court to send troops to the south to tie up Zu Li's Yuzhou army, is Liu Cang really willing to agree? If that guy only cared about the national plan in the past and did not seek personal gain, he would not have quarreled with him; Now that there is "Qingjun Side", he has successfully ousted Liu from power, and he can only be more domineering, but he will not repent......

As soon as his main force leaves the bank of the Yellow River and goes south to Dali, Liu Cang will not necessarily cut off his back road, but from then on, he will find all kinds of excuses to delay the supply of grain and grass, which is something that can be imagined with his heels. As a result, it is difficult to maintain the food in the army until midsummer, but Pei Gai on the other side may receive a steady stream of relief from Henan, including both grain and soldiers.

If you think about it along this line, how can this battle be fought? Unless, as Pei Gai said, take advantage of the current abundant grain and grass to cross the Yellow River eastward, occupy the east of the river first, and then go north to compete with Liu Cang, wouldn't it be a dead end?

And even if you listen to Pei Gai's words, the situation may not be completely reversed. Liu's treasure has been sent out, if he goes to Pingyang again, it will be a rebellion, there is no righteous name, how can the soldiers obey orders? And when the time comes, the south of Hedong is occupied by Zu Ti, will he let himself pour out of the nest and go north to compete for power, instead of taking the opportunity to cross north to copy his own back road?

If Zu Shizhi was a defender, he would not have just gained a foothold in Yuzhou, so he repeatedly sent troops to the north, and this time he came to Henan in one breath and broke Liu Fu in Yanshi.

The more Liu Yao thought about it, the more frightened he felt, and then he couldn't help but sigh: "If it is as Pei Wenyue said, I will only have a dead ear!" ”

Next to him, Cao Sui hurriedly waved his hand: "Why did the king say this?" Don't be confused by Pei Gai's sophistry! Then he gave up his hand and persuaded: "If as he said, the Jin people are strong, and the king is in danger, then Pei should not tell the king that he would join the army." This clearly wants to disturb the king's heart, and prevent me from going south to Daliye, so I implore the king to think twice! ”

As he spoke, he gave Liu Yao a wink. Liu Yao suddenly realized, and hurriedly turned his worries into joy, and said with a smile: "I didn't sleep last night, and today I was sleepy, and I didn't notice it for a while. Turning his head, he instructed Liang Xu: "Join the army and return to the camp to raise a good general...... Then he raised his eyebrows, and his voice became stern: "Pei Gai's words, and today's affairs, be careful not to leak them, otherwise, military law will deal with it!" ”

He didn't just say this to Liang Xu, there are a few secretaries, attendants, and subordinates indoors and outdoors, Liu Yao said a warning while looking around, that means one is counted as one, no one is allowed to leak secrets, otherwise don't blame me for being ruthless!

Then he not only asked Liang Xu to go back to recuperate, but he also threw everyone except Cao Xu outside and closed the door, then lowered his voice and asked Cao Xun: "Pei Gai's words are not unreasonable, if this is the case, what should I do?" ”

Cao Sui just said a few words just now, and did not completely refute what Pei Gai said, he made a series of eyes, in fact, he was reminding Liu Yao, as the commander of the first army, how can you speak out in public? What else is "I only have dead ears"...... I'm afraid it will shake the morale of the army! Liu Yao understood, so he falsely claimed that he hadn't slept well and was in poor spirits, and he was almost confused by Pei Gai's empty words...... But how should we deal with the dangerous situation that Pei Gai is talking about? He had no choice but to close the door and discuss with Cao Sui.

But Cao Sui didn't have any good way, the two studied the situation repeatedly, but as a result, the tip of the horns got deeper and deeper, and they felt more and more that what Pei Gai said was reasonable...... I was feeling panicked, and I suddenly heard someone outside the door report: "Liu Sima has returned with grain and asked to see the king." ”

Cao Xun's eyes couldn't help but light up: "Why doesn't the king ask Sima, there must be a clever way to deal with it!" ”

Liu Yao bowed his head and immediately ordered, please invite Liu Sima in.

This Liu Sima's name is Liu Jun, the word Ziping, is not only a fellow Tu clan, but also one of Liu Yao's henchmen, and has always been resourceful. In fact, when it comes to seniority, Liu Jun is still taller than Liu Yao, and he is a brother from Liu Yuan, but his bloodline is more distant. This person originally served Liu Cong and helped Liu Cong resist Liu He's tyranny, but afterwards he advised Liu Cong to make Liu the emperor's younger brother, which caused Liu Can's dissatisfaction and plotted to get rid of him many times. In order to avoid trouble, Liu Jun then asked for his life to be transferred to Liu Yaojun's Sima, Liu Cang sarcastically killed Liu Yao, but Liu Yao refused, but instead cited his henchmen Liu Yao and Liu Cangzhi as not harmonious, which is also an important reason.

When Liu Jun came in, he saw that there were only Liu Yao and Cao Sui in the room, and there was not even a servant, and he had just entered the door, so Liu Yao signaled with his eyes and asked him to close the door, knowing that there must be something important to discuss. Sure enough, Liu Yao immediately ordered him to come and sit down, and repeated what Pei Caituo Liang Xu had brought back, and asked him, "What does Sima think?" ”

Liu Jun stroked his beard, muttered for a while, and replied, "That's right...... I don't want to be able to say this without being a child, and I can't be underestimated......"

Cao Sui hurriedly said: "Or someone else teaches Pei to say this......"

Liu Jun glanced at him: "In the past, every time Zhang Liang talked to people, he was unconscious, only Gao Zu could get the essence of the art of war, and often used his strategy, Liang Nai said: 'Pei Gong is bestowed!'" ’”

Talking about an ancient story, that means: Even if Pei Gai is taught by others with this, Pei Gai can understand, understand, and organize it into language in a clear way and tell it to Liang Xu, then he is very remarkable. Do you think that such a complex political situation can be understood by anyone at first hearing?

Then he turned to Liu Yao and said that I had just come back from the grain, and I was not very clear about the current situation, so I asked the king to explain a word or two. At that moment, Liu Yao recounted, Cao Sui added, said that it was a full half of the meal, Liu Jun listened and calculated, and finished his hand: "The old general (Liu Dan) persuaded the king to cross the river in a hurry to attack Dali, so that Pei should be caught off guard. However...... In terms of the overall situation, it is not as clear as Pei should be.

"As Pei Gai said, if our army rushes south to attack Dali, even if there is no Zu Qi to rescue, its 20,000 or 30,000 horses will stick to the fortified city, and it will not be ...... in a hurry."

Hu and Han departments are accustomed to putting the regular soldiers and auxiliary soldiers together, but unlike the military system in Xuzhou, even the regular soldiers may not be completely out of production, not to mention the auxiliary soldiers. Therefore, the number of soldiers who can really fight is only one or two thousand at most, and the number of soldiers who can barely be called soldiers is less than 50,000.

What about Xuzhou? Liu Jun crossed his fingers to help Liu Yao calculate, the one who refused Liu by the ditch was about 2,000 people in the "Wulin Battalion", and there were four major battalions of "Fenglin Volcano" under Pei Cai's command, which should all be regular soldiers, so the total number was no less than 8,000.

Of course, this number is still far from the real situation, a large battalion in Xuzhou has nearly 3,000 people, and now it has expanded to nearly 4,000, and the total number of the four battalions is more than 15,000. Moreover, the so-called auxiliary soldiers in Xuzhou are not far from the regular soldiers of the Hu army, and the quality of the mixed cavalry may be higher than that of some Hu soldiers, for example, the Qiang and Qiang miscellaneous cavalry.

Although Pei Gai left some soldiers and horses to protect the back road in Chenggao and Gongxian, there are still more than 20,000 soldiers in Dali City.

But even if Liu Jun calculates the number, it is also very impressive, "The art of war cloud five to attack, ten to encircle, and our army may not be able to fight five times, the field attack will win, facing the strong wall is not enough to win......"

Of course, whether an army's combat effectiveness is strong or weak, it is not enough to rely on the number and quality of soldiers, and it still needs to rely on the ability of generals to command and command, and Liu Jun still has considerable confidence in Liu Yao and most of the generals under his command. However, even so, in the face of the Da Lijian City garrisoned by the Xuzhou soldiers, it is unlikely that it will be able to take it in a month or two.

Cao Sui questioned: "I know Da Li, the ancient name is Linjin, and it is not very big; And before the king's soldiers entered the pass, they attacked the city three times, and the city wall collapsed in many places, how can it be called strong? ”

Liu Jun shook his head: "Be lenient with the enemy." Dali is governed by Feng Yi, Pei should be in the base, how can he not rectify it? If the city wall collapses, it is not difficult to repair...... "The vast majority of the cities in these years are earthen ramparts, and the protection is weak, of course, there are special cases, it is said that soon after Helian Bobo built the earthen wall of the city, to the Northern Song Dynasty is still as strong as new, so it is not much labor-intensive to repair, Pei should have been here for more than a month, and he may not be able to take care of it elsewhere, can he not repair this big Licheng?"

Liu Jun said, I believe that with the power of the king, it will be possible to conquer Dali in the end, and the generals such as Lu Yun will not dare to come to the rescue; Even if Zu Ti sent troops to help, he would still have to protect the huge Hongnong, Henan, and even the lands of Yan and Henan, and send 10,000 people to cross the Weiding sky. But as long as Pei should have the determination to defend to the death, and have the most basic common sense about the military, and do not make low-level mistakes, it is impossible for us to hope for peace at one step

"The people in the south are good at guarding the wall, I heard that Tao Kan is in Pei's army, and he is the first general in the south of the Yangtze River, so he must not underestimate his ability."

If the time drags on for a long time, it is indeed not good for our army, and I am afraid that the grain and grass will be cut off" Pei Gai's words may be exaggerated, but Da Dan Yu is unwilling to send troops to harass Henan, and will hinder the grain transportation of our army, I am afraid it is not a lie...... "Liu Yao crossed to the west and left Liu Jun to supervise the grain and grass in Hedong, so Liu Jun's understanding of the internal news of Pingyang is more timely. According to him, Liu has been deposed, Liu Cang naturally wants to be promoted to the crown prince, he has been lobbying Liu Cong through various channels these days, theoretically Liu Cong should agree, but he just died a son (Liu Fu), his heart is not happy, it seems to be blamed on Liu Cang Who told you to leave your brother in Yanshi, and ran back to Pingyang by himself, so he wanted to delay for a while and ring the alarm bell for this eldest son.

So since Liu Cang's mind is all about the important matter of Lichu, how can he lead his troops to the south again within half a year? If you only send you to cross the river, eighty percent of them are not Zu Ti's opponents......

Moreover, there is not much grain in the country, and even if Liu Cang does not deliberately make it bad, it will be difficult for us to get more funding. After all, the real hinterland of Hu Hanguo is only the three counties of Hedong and Pingyang in Sizhou, as well as Shangdang in Bingzhou, although a lot of materials and even people have been plundered from the Central Plains before, but in terms of wealth, it cannot be compared with Zhongzhou and even Guanzhong in the past. To tell the truth, if it weren't for the fact that the king of the Sima family and the big and small feudal lords had ruined the land of the Central Plains first, Hu Hanguo would have relied on the three counties of Hedong to try to resist the Quanjin, which would be a complete fool's dream.

Therefore, Liu Jun said that once our army cannot quickly defeat Dali in the front and return to Hedong in the future, the grain will be exhausted, and it will be extremely dangerous at that time.

Liu Yao nodded and said, "That's exactly what I'm thinking about...... Pei Gai's words cannot be fully believed, but there is also a reason. I don't know why Sima taught me? ”

Liu Jun replied: "It's because of the military affairs, what the old general said is yes, I should rush forward; If you look at the overall situation, you can't rush, you must first consolidate the momentum, and then you can attack Dali. ”

So how do you consolidate the momentum? Liu Jun raised two fingers and said: "First, now that our army has won Xiayang and Yang, we can send a partial division to the west to take Suyi and Pinyang, and in this way, we will get half of Feng Yi." Between the valleys, there are many abundant water and grass, which can be grazed to finance the shortage of military food...... "The main fertile land in Fengyi County is in the south, especially in the plain area around Dali, we are in the higher north, and we want to get grain by farming, but we have neither suitable land nor enough manpower. But if grazing is different, most of the Tuge, the Huns, and even the Di and Qiang Zahu can all do this work, I believe that Pei Gai will not dare to send troops north to disturb, then we can use animal husbandry first to barely maintain the source of food.

Then he raised a second finger: "Second, I heard that Chen Changhong (Chen Yuanda's character Changhong) said that the right canal should be eliminated, but after the right canal soldiers come to merge, they will go to Dali together." ”