Élysée Palace, Paris, France – the presidential palace of France.

The Élysée Palace was built in 1718 and has a history of more than 100 years, originally the private residence of a Count of Davero, and has changed hands several times over the years, Louis XV and Louis XVI have moved in, and renamed the Bourbon Building.

After the defeat of Napoleon I at Waterloo in 1815, he signed his abdication here. Napoleon III also moved here after his election to the presidency in 1848, and he said that the emperor became a royal palace.

After the establishment of the French Third Republic, a decree was issued in 1873 officially designating the Élysée Palace as the presidential palace of France.

In the president's office on the second floor, François Paul Jules Grevy, the third president of the French Third Republic, in his early seventies, with a broad and high forehead and a thick beard, stood by the window with a gloomy face and looked out at the garden below.

In the South African War, although France suffered a lot of losses and paid a lot of price, it obtained Madagascar as a colony, which can be regarded as a gain and loss, even if there is a slight rift in the friendly relationship with the Qing State, he does not care too much.

However, the sudden close relationship between Qing and Germany made him feel a little nervous, and the visit of Salisbury, the English Foreign Secretary, made him feel that war was approaching.

The defeat of the Franco-Prussian War caused France to lose its vitality, not only because of the huge war reparations of 5 billion francs, but also because of the greater losses of France in this war, at least above 15 billion francs, and the cession of Alsace and Lorraine made France lose important coal and iron resources, and also lost the security of the border.

To make matters worse, the fiasco seriously undermined France's self-esteem!

In just three years, France paid off 5 billion francs in reparations, forcing Germany to withdraw its occupation forces and quickly recovering its national strength, but the call for "revenge" at home is also growing! This further led to German hatred!

In fact, in his opinion, France should give up the mentality of revenge and make peace with Germany, in order to be more conducive to the development of France, and Bismarck also had this intention, and during the Berlin Conference, he showed a very respectful attitude towards the French delegates.

After he became president, Bismarck sent a telegram to congratulate and encourage France to expand in North Africa, wishing France success in Egypt and believing that France was entitled to control the entire Mediterranean region.

Originally, he thought that during his administration, the contradictions between France and Germany could be greatly eased, and the situation was indeed loosened, and everything was developing in a good direction.

A South African war that turned it all over again! The Qing were casting the clouds of war over Europe.

A soft, rhythmic knock sounded at the door, and Grevi turned around and said, "Please come in." ”

As soon as the door opened, Prime Minister Charlie. Morality. Frésine walked in slowly, "Salisbury's concerns are not unfounded, and in such a favorable situation, there is no reason why Germany should not go to war. ”

After stretching out his hand to give up his seat, Grevy paced to the sofa and sat down, saying, "Qing Guo is trying to provoke a war in Europe with the hand of Germany, weakening or containing England. Why do we want to let the Qing people get their wish? ”

"The initiative is not in our hands." Fresine said with a serious face: "Germany will not give up this opportunity!" ”

"If ——。" Greveura said in a long voice: "Is our country willing to put aside our hatred and reconcile with Germany?"

"We can let go of hatred, but what about the people?" "It has only been ten years since the war, the wounds of the war have not yet healed, and it is impossible for the people to let go of the hatred in their hearts, and the war reparations of five billion francs, the cession of the provinces of Alsace and Lorraine, are a shame that France cannot forget.

Nor would Germany believe that it could reconcile with our country, otherwise it would not have tried to isolate us diplomatically, and would not have attempted to wage a second war against our country in 1875. ”

In 1875, Germany attempted to launch a "war on prevention" and could not wait to destroy France again as soon as possible before it was fully consolidated and had no strong allies, but this plan could not be implemented due to the intervention of Britain and Russia. It was after this that Germany began to take steps to ease relations with France.

Grevy was silent, he hoped for another war with Germany, although after the Franco-Prussian War, France carried out a series of financial and military reforms, implemented universal military service, established a standing army comparable to Germany, and the call for revenge in the country was also very high, but he knew in his heart that once the war started, France still had no chance of winning, and if it continued to lose, France's position would further decline, and it would fall to the point of Austria-Hungary and Italy.

Fresine glanced at him and said, "Our country can carry out diplomatic mediation, but we must actively prepare for war!" ”

"Preparing for war?" Grevi said in a deep voice: "Once you start preparing for war, the revenge mood in the country will inevitably be high!" To regain lost territory and re-establish hegemony, public opinion against Germany will inevitably be overwhelming, just giving Germany an excuse to start a war! ”

After a pause, he said in a deep voice: "Bismarck has long expressed the idea of uniting our country to fight against England ....... ”

"Can Bismarck's words be believed?" Fresine said disdainfully: "Germany is ambitious, and what it wants is a unified Europe!" ”

After a pause, he continued: "One of the reasons for the defeat of our country in the Franco-Prussian War is diplomatic isolation, Germany has been trying to isolate our country diplomatically all these years, and now, Russia, Austria-Hungary and even Italy have fallen to Germany, and our only ally is only England, if we lose England again, our country will fall into a situation of complete isolation." ”

After saying that, he added, "English Prime Minister Disraeli has secretly gone to Petersburg." ”

After a long silence, Grevi said, "Don't worry for the time being, if it's really necessary, submit it to the council for discussion." ”

Petersburg, Russia.

In the summer dusk, a four-wheeled carriage slowly drove into a grand duke's mansion on the east bank of the Fontanka River, and went straight into the backyard, and when the carriage stopped, Russian Prime Minister Gorchakov, who was in his early eighties, got out of the carriage a little slowly, and seemed to be slowly greeting Disraeli, he smiled and stretched out his hand.

The Berlin Conference, because of Disraeli's interference, the "Berlin Treaty" replaced the "San Stefano Treaty", which was the biggest failure in Gorchakov's political career, but the feng shui took turns, and only two years later, Disraeli took the initiative to send it to the door.

The two were acquainted, and when they met, they inevitably exchanged pleasantries, and after entering the room and taking a seat, Gorchakov asked knowingly: "What is it that tired Your Excellency to come to Petersburg in person?" ”

Disraeli is seven or eight years younger in age, and he also knows that it is not easy to offend the other party in Berlin, so he said euphemistically: "I heard that the railway between your country and the Qing country will be opened in two years?" ”

The Eurasian Railway is no longer a secret, Gorchakov nodded, and said: "The opening of this railway is of great significance, since the trade between the East and the West is no longer limited to the sea route, and the connection between Europe and the Far East will inevitably be closer." ”

Disraeli said: "The Empress Dowager of the Qing Kingdom, the Emperor and the great treasurer of Yuanqi are easy to be content, and the news of inspecting the northwest should also be known to your country." ”

Gorchakov glanced at him, "Qing attaches importance to the development of Central Asia, is there a problem?" ”

Disraeli sneered: "The Kazakh steppe, like the Eastern European Plain, has no danger to defend, and the Qing State has developed Central Asia on a large scale, so your country is not worried about the Qing State's large-scale westward expedition?"

The Yellow Peril is straightforwardly described in your book The State System and Anarchy, published in 1873.

From the 4th century to the 5th century, the Xiongnu went west, the Turks went west from the 11th to the 12th century, the Mongols went west in the 13th century, and there were three westward expeditions, the first two of which destroyed the Western Roman Empire and the Eastern Roman Empire, and achieved the Ottoman Empire.

The Mongol expedition to the west was a disaster for Europe, so don't you worry about a fourth expedition to the west? Once the Qing State marches westward, your country will inevitably be the first target of the Qing State's attack! ”

Gorchakov said slowly: "His Majesty the Emperor of our country does not think that the Qing Dynasty will go westward on a large scale. ”

"Won't?" Disraeli sneered: "In just forty years, the territory of the Qing Kingdom has more than doubled, conquering not only all the islands in the Far East, but also Southeast Asia, Central Asia, West Asia and South Africa.

The reason why the Qing State has stopped the pace of expansion now is because it needs time to digest the territory that has expanded over the years, and it needs to vigorously develop industry and military industry.

If the Qing State would not have gone west, it would not have supported Germany to provoke war in Europe, trade between the East and the West, the Qing State was the biggest beneficiary, and the war in Europe was not in the interests of the Qing State!

Knowing this, what is the purpose of the Qing State still wanting to provoke war in Europe? It is to weaken the strength of Europe and buy time for the westward expedition!

Twenty or thirty years later, why didn't the Qing Dynasty, which had accumulated strong military, economic and industrial strength, not go west in the face of war and great loss of strength in Europe? ”

For the rapid rise of the Qing Empire, how can Russia not be worried, not to mention that Russia itself is also an ambitious and expanding country, naturally it will not believe that the Qing Empire will stop the pace of expansion, the reason why it does not think that the Qing Dynasty will go west on a large scale is completely to gag the other party's mouth.

Gorchakov also did not want to get entangled with the other side on this issue, and instead asked: "Your country has always pursued a policy of continental equilibrium, but the current situation in Europe, is there still a possibility of equilibrium?" ”

"Yes!" Disraeli said in a deep voice: "As long as your country puts pressure on Germany, you can force Germany not to dare to move!" ”

Gorchakov smiled when he heard this, "Our country has just signed a defense treaty with Germany, how to put pressure on Germany?" ”

"What if there is enough interest?" Disraeli took the initiative to throw the bait, but it was really impossible not to take the initiative, and the current situation was too passive for England.

Gorchakov said with a smirk: "Enough benefits? ”

"Our country can support your country in further annexing the Ottomans."

Ottoman? Gorchakov secretly cursed in his heart, the Ottomans are so easy to annex now? Not to mention the real power of Britain and Germany, the Qing State has now annexed the entire Persian Gulf, and the relationship with the Ottomans is quite close, and there are faint signs of supporting the Ottomans.

Shaking his head slowly, he said in a flat tone: "My country is not interested in the Ottomans now. ”

Disraeli looked at him and said, "Balkan? ”

After pondering for a moment, Gorchakov said: "The opening of the Eurasian Railway is imminent, and our country does not want to destroy friendly relations with the Qing State. ”

"Once Germany annexes France, it will not stop expanding, and Austria-Hungary, Spain, and Italy are no match for Germany." Disraeli said slowly: "When Germany's strength grows further, the spearhead will be pointed at your country sooner or later, and at that time, will your country be able to resist Germany?" ”

Gorchakov sneered: "How do I think that Your Excellency is deliberately provoking contradictions between our country and Germany?" ”

"We just want Europe to maintain the existing peace situation." Disraeli said in a deep voice: "For Europe, the biggest enemy is the Qing State. ”

"For your country, the Qing State is the greatest enemy." Gorchakov said: "For our country, Qing is an ally, an ally that can promote the rapid development of our country's trade and economy. ”

"Now Germany is also an ally of the Qing State. More than 10,000 German officers and men on the navy and land are conducting military exchanges in the Qing Dynasty. Disraeli looked teasing, "For the Qing Kingdom, Germany, which can provoke war in Europe, is more important." With your wisdom, you should be able to see through the intentions of the Qing people.

Once Germany, which has the support of the Qing State, provokes a war, the whole of Europe will fall into a long period of war, and all countries will be involved, and your country will be no exception. ”

Gorchakov picked up the black tea on the table and sipped slowly, once Germany, which had obtained the torpedoes and submarines of the Qing Kingdom, provoked a war, even if Britain and France joined forces, it would be difficult to resist, and it was indeed possible to plunge Europe into a long-term war.

If Germany wins, it will not be too late for Russia to send troops to suppress it, and if Britain and France win, it will not be a bad thing for Russia, and when the time comes, it will be unimaginable benefits to unite with the Qing state to mediate.

In that case, why break the treaty and put pressure on Germany? Just for the sake of the Balkans, offending both Germany and the Qing State, no matter how you look at it, it will be more than worth the loss!

Putting down the teacup, he said slowly: "If you turn your back and tear up the treaty, my Emperor His Majesty is afraid that he will not be able to do such a thing." Of course, my country also wants peace in Europe, and if you have a better way, we are more than happy to do our part. ”

For Gorchakov's refusal, Disraeli was not surprised at all, after all, it was more in Russia's interests to stay out of the matter, and he could only throw out a killer idea, "If ——, your country is unwilling to interfere, then our country can only remain neutral."

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