"The Russians are now too busy suppressing domestic riots to bother with Morocco, and US President Franklin D. Roosevelt has made it clear that US interests in North Africa are not yet so great as to involve the US government in the matter. The two countries that the Germans are most likely to woo have already decided that they will not be on the side of the Germans, so now we have an absolute advantage diplomatically. "Foreign Secretary Grey to Prime Minister Henry? Sir Gambell Bannerman reports.

However, this diplomatic achievement did not make him happy: "The Germans did not pay any attention to our offer to hold multilateral talks, and our efforts did not make any difference." ”

"The German government obviously does not intend to give in, not only is they not prepared to accept our offer of a peaceful settlement, but they are also speeding up the military threat to France, and now a large number of German army units have been gathered on the German-French border, although we cannot know the details of the German transfers, but the Germans are not fully mobilized, so their compendium division should not be replenished. We believe that the Germans have mobilized only their full and standing divisions, and we conservatively estimate that more than 20 of the 31 full and standing divisions in the German Army have already been deployed on the German-French border. British War Secretary Haldane reported to Sir Bannerman.

"In other words, there are at least 320,000 German troops on the German-French border right now, and they can attack France at any time, right?" Sir Bannerman thought for a moment and asked, "If this is the case, it does not seem to be a big problem, aren't the French now also sending troops to the Franco-German border?" It's probably close to 200,000 people, right? Relying on the French fortress group, it doesn't seem too difficult to resist the attack of 320,000 German troops, right? ”

"The problem is that the Germans are clearly not prepared to make concessions on Morocco now, and the current deployment of forces is obviously only aimed at fighting a short-term war to force France to make concessions, but if the war escalates, the Germans can quickly gather more troops." Haldane said with a bit of a headache: "At the speed of the French. Then the superiority of the Germans will be expanded. More importantly, once the Germans have invaded French territory and made some progress, I am concerned about the confidence of the French Government to continue to maintain its attitude towards Morocco. ”

"There are already voices in France that are dissatisfied with the French government, and the French people are worried about the current situation of more than 500,000 troops deployed on the border by Germany and France, and believe that such a confrontation is likely to lead to an escalation of the conflict." Gray was equally troubled: "The French people seem to think that the government is stupid to go to war with Germany over Morocco. I am concerned that the attitude of the French government may change.

There have been rumours within the French government calling for the resignation of Foreign Minister Delcasser. Let the news of calming the anger of the Germans and having Chancellor Rovier come to negotiate with the Germans would be the worst if that happened. ”

At this time, France was not the only France in history to taste the sweetness of the Entente in the two Moroccan crises, and after both Moroccan crises ended in the humiliating diplomatic defeat of Germany, France realized that it could stand up to Germany with the support of Britain. In order to reclaim Alsace and Lorraine, the humiliation of Snowsdown and Versailles had to intensify the contradictions between Germany and England, so France began to tend to adopt a provocative attitude towards Germany in all matters, and each tough German response led to increasing British vigilance and targeting of Germany

However, the treaty has just been concluded. France's dependence on and trust in Britain was far from the historical level, and although there were a large number of anti-German forces in the French government, they were not optimistic about a war with Germany and hoped to ease the contradictions.

"Do you mean that the French government may be under pressure from the population at home to de-escalate the current conflict and negotiate with Germany?" Sir Bannerman asked, "If that's the case." The Germans may well have succeeded in their purpose. ”

"These incompetent Frenchmen have provoked the matter themselves, but they are not capable of solving it. I was frightened by the German army, and Napoleon III dared to go to war with those Germans! And what will the uneducated Germans do but use war to achieve their own ends? Don't they have to use their brains? Gray said angrily that Gray had thought that the Anglo-French alliance and the threat of the Royal Navy would be enough to make the Germans retreat, but now that the Germans are so ignorant of the times, in addition to making him feel troubled, there is also a hint of annoyance and anger at the misjudgment of the Germans' reaction.

"It's no use being angry. Your Excellency, what matters now is how to strengthen the confidence of the French so that they can not flinch in the face of the Germans. Sir Bannerman pressed his palm on Gray to signal him to rest easy, and then asked the others, "Shall we make our support for France more explicit?" Suggesting that we may go to war? ”

"I guess that's all I have to say. Your Excellency the Prime Minister. Gray calmed down and replied, "We must support France, so that Delcasse will have enough leverage to persuade the French government not to make concessions to the Germans." If Delcasse is indeed forced to resign, the anti-German forces within the French government will be dealt a heavy blow. The German moderationist forces, led by the weak Rovière, will take control of the French government, and all the efforts we have made will be meaningless.

We have to make a clear statement so that De Casse, who has our support, can secure his seat and then be able to influence the French government to strengthen their confidence and abandon any unrealistic ideas. ”

"I agree with His Excellency the Viscount." "Tell the French that we will go to war, and let them know that we will send an expeditionary force, and only then will we silence those in the French government who want to negotiate with the Germans, because if they negotiate with the Germans, then they will betray the British Empire, and if they do not want to break relations with us while being forced by the Germans, then they will have to fight the Germans to the end." ”

Although that being said, it has only been a few years since the completion of the reform, and the previous credibility of the British Army, which was completely lost because of the Boer War, will really fight with the Germans, and Haldane himself does not know what the result will be, but Haldane thinks that if this army is not sent, it is really difficult to strengthen the confidence of the French, and the British will send troops to fight side by side with the French is not only a support, but also a kind of hijacking.

"The German navy doesn't have to worry, they probably don't even have the guts to go out of the port and fight a decisive battle with the Royal Navy, what they have a little combat power is the 10 battleships equipped with 6 11-inch naval guns, and our fleet has an overwhelming advantage." Unlike the War Secretary Haldane's headache attitude, the Admiralty Marchibanks was very relaxed: "I estimate that once the war starts, the German Navy will be ready to be a turtle with a shrunken head, as long as the war on the ground lasts for a short time, then the losses of being blockaded by the Royal Navy are what the Germans can bear, so they will not send their precious warships to fight a war with us without the slightest hope of victory."

Even if the war gets longer, the completion and commissioning of the battleships that the Germans are building will not change the balance of power between us, and I think the Admiralty will be more than happy to let the Dreadnought, which has completed its training, test her combat effectiveness. ”

"But if that were the case, if the Germans still refused to back down, and if war eventually broke out, we would have to send our young men to a battlefield even more terrible than South Africa just five years after the end of the Boer War, and even if we had won the final victory, I am afraid that we would have to pay as much as the Boer War." Sir Bannerman was still very worried about the outbreak of war.

Britain at this time was not the only Britain in history that realized that if it did not firmly grasp France and reconcile France and Germany, it might lead Germany, France, and Russia together, thereby making its situation extremely worse, so it still had doubts about how much support France would provide.

However, although there are still some worries and reluctance about the fate of himself, he realizes that if he does not help France, he may damage his diplomatic credibility, so even if he is reluctant, it is much better than the ambiguous attitude in history and the reluctance to take on the obligations of the Entente

"If the Germans are not willing to back down, then we have no choice, Your Excellency." Gray said helplessly: "If we ignore France, then all countries will think that we are despicable and disloyal to our allies, and the Americans will look down on us; The Russians will not consider it worthwhile to consult with us on Asian affairs; Japan will look to other countries for renewed protection; We will lose friends and we will not be able to make new ones; The German Prize happily took advantage of the whole situation against us. ”

"You're right, we have no choice." Sir Bannerman nodded in agreement with Gray, and then muttered to himself, "War, it's really scary to think about the prospect of a European war and the possibility of us being dragged in. ”

Everyone here heard the Prime Minister's muttering, but without exception remained silent, it is indeed terrible to be dragged into the shadow of the European war, but it would be even more terrifying for the British Empire to be diplomatically isolated, so Britain can only make a choice. (To be continued......)