Chapter 2 More on the Future

With a glass of milk, a sausage, an omelette, and a loaf of bread, His Royal Highness Prince Joachim enjoyed his breakfast in a good mood.

In a blink of an eye, the little guy is 5 years old. Although at the age of 3, the Kingdom of Prussia became the Second German Reich and became a rising power on the European continent, it is clear that this "militaristic event" has nothing to do with this big and small child.

As he grew older, Jochen became more and more comfortable with his new identity. Although the current identity is only 11 years old according to history, diphtheria, an airborne disease, has killed his two older brothers who have been with a straight face all day long, nor his two younger sisters. Oh, God forgive me, I shouldn't have been so psychologically shady, Sophie and Margaret are so cute, God bless them, Amen. Hey, am I missing something? Well, it shouldn't be too important to think about it.

Well, I mean, since no one else has been infected, it should be fine for me to be careful myself. And even if the wheel of fate runs over me, a little guy who tries to use his mantis arm as a car, life and death are in the sky, there is nothing to say.

And it is clear that the princes of the Second German Reich, life and death are not to be said, and there is obviously no problem with wealth and nobility.

And even if he dodges the hurdle of being 11 years old, what can he do in the future? The defeat of Germany in World War I was obviously caused by many reasons, and of course, it is generally believed that Wilhelm II tried in vain to challenge the British sea power and provoked the war, and finally led Germany to fall into the abyss. This kind of behavior of the winner deducting from the loser is obviously a bandit logic that reverses right and wrong.

At the end of the 19th century, the core of the imperialist economic system was the exclusive monopoly of trade and the deformed regional division of labor, and the rise of Germany was too late, when the domestic market could no longer meet the rapid development of domestic productive forces. The root of the contradiction between Wilhelm II and Bismarck was not that the Kaiser's desire to build a navy violated Bismarck's foreign policy of not wanting to stimulate Britain, but that the development of the empire's economy needed the needs of overseas markets and the fundamental opposition of the local strategy to contain the empire's economic development.

In 1881, Bismarck told those who were restless: "As long as I am chancellor for one day, there will be no colonial policy in Germany." ”。 Of course, Bismarck is not unreasonable, according to the figures of Bismarck's administration, only 0.1% of Germany's total exports are sold to the colonies, and only 0.2% of the total imports are from the colonies.

What Bismarck couldn't see was that by 1914, the allowance of the German colonies had dropped to 17.8%, while the earlier developed colonies of East Africa and Cameroon had dropped to 5.38% and 9.85% respectively, and the total allowance of the German colonies in the same year was only 29.3 million marks, less than 60% of a modern super-dreadnought at that time, and only equivalent to 0.8% of the German budget in 1913, and from 1893~The total colonial allowance for 20 years in 1913 was only 725.1 million marks, or only 47.6 per cent of the total expenditure of the colony. In other words, after a long period of operation, the colony has begun to turn into a hen that can lay golden eggs for the empire. And this qiē Bismarck had no patience and interest. And this, the contradiction between the expansion of the capitalist economy and Bismarck's complacency was the fundamental reason for Bismarck's eventual downfall. The old prime minister is out.

Sea power is not an end, sea power is only a means, it is the economy that establishes the sea power, not the sea power that establishes the economy. Is it possible for Germany's economy not to open up foreign markets and have a strong maritime power? And the stupid British, who could not tell whether it was the sea power that made the empire or the empire that made the sea power, naturally attributed the actions of the Germans to the reversal of black and white conclusions that they wanted to challenge the "sea power of the British". Not to mention the bandit logic of the British themselves, who only allowed the state officials to set fire to the sea and did not allow the people to light the lamps, the French naval development and the Americans' round-the-world voyage of the Great White Fleet did not make the British make a big move, and the reason was that compared with the United States on the other side of the ocean and France, which had colonies all over the world, a direct conflict with Germany was an easier situation for Britain to manage.

Therefore, the real source of the evil of the First World War should have been Britain and not Germany, and the stupid British not only destroyed Germany, but also ceded their own sea power. This also shows from the side that the Germans' idea of the risk fleet is correct, that is, if there is a war with Germany, the British will lose their sea power, as a bargaining chip for the peaceful coexistence of Germany and Britain. However, the stupid British could not recognize this, and when they did, it was accompanied by the destruction of the empire on which the sun never sets. After realizing the consequences of war with an industrial power after World War I, the British had to sit down at the negotiating table with the United States and Japan to share sea power. It can be said that the sea power of the British was sacrificed by themselves, not challenged by some "evil country".

And it is nonsense for many to think that Wilhelm II undermined the diplomatic foundation that Bismarck had laid for Germany, and thus suffered enemies on all sides. At the Berlin Conference of 1878, Bismarck's favoritism towards Austria-Hungary and Turkey had already led to tensions between Russia and Germany, the biggest loser on the surface, and the German-Austrian Treaty of Alliance in 1879 had tied Germany to the powder keg of the Balkans. Sure enough, the Bulgarian and Serbian crises of 1885 completely led to the rupture of Russian-Austrian relations, and in order to prevent German intervention, Russian-French relations quickly became closer, and led Bismarck to impose economic sanctions on Russia, and the Russians immediately obtained loans from France in response to German sanctions, and the economic basis of the Russian-French alliance was basically formed.

The so-called "German-Russian Reinsurance Treaty" in 1887 was even more boring, this treaty with a term of only 3 years not only did nothing to improve the security of Germany, but also turned the "United Russia" through guò "United Austria" into a de facto "anti-Russian", and the reinsurance treaty also stimulated Britain and Austria-Hungary at the same time, and in fact all German diplomats at that time were against the signing of this treaty, because this treaty was completely contrary to the interests of Austria-Hungary in the Triple Alliance, the senior diplomat Holstein believed that once the content was leaked, For this alone, Germany faced the dilemma of being blackmailed by Russia. His successor, Reich Chancellor Caprivey, also considered the treaty incompatible with the pro-British diplomatic line, and even suspected that the purpose of Russia's renewal was merely to divide Germany's allies and use it as a tool for friendship with Britain.

Bismarck naively believed that it would be safe for him not to participate in an "offensive" war and defend Germany full-time, but he did not know that Germany's diplomatic relations had been messed up by himself at this time. And will Russia really abandon the "Slavic brothers who are eager to be saved by His Majesty the Tsar" just because of a so-called "reinsurance"? On July 7, 1887, Ferdinand of the House of Coburg became the Tsar of Bulgaria, and the Tsar, who was close to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, angered Russia and began to seriously consider an alliance with France. The frightened Bismarck was forced to send the "German-Austrian Treaty of Alliance" to London, claiming that if Austria-Hungary and Britain were threatened, Germany had the duty to fight against Russia or France, and the British, who were suffering from Franco-Russian interference in British affairs in Egypt, once again joined forces with Germany to put pressure on Russia, and this time completely planted the seeds of Russia's hatred of Germany.

And this qiē, Jochen was powerless to change, and the defeat of Germany in World War I was not a military defeat, but an economic and diplomatic failure. As a young prince with no inheritance, Jochen could not influence his grandfather, Wilhelm I, and could not refute the iron-blooded Chancellor, who was one of the three great German masters, and perhaps his father would have been an enlightened monarch, but the misdiagnosis of the English quack kept him in power for less than 100 days. And his brother Wilhelm II was a guy who couldn't listen to other people's opinions at all.

After understanding that a qiē could not be changed, the little guy lived the life of a bookworm with peace of mind. The living conditions of the German prince were naturally luxurious to himself in his previous life, and Jochen, who did not need to worry about labor in his life, naturally had more energy to devote to reading, his greatest pleasure. Although he didn't like to study in his previous life, his greatest hobby was to increase his knowledge by constantly reading. Assuming that he can survive the age of 11, he will have 39 years until the defeat of Germany. It is not too difficult to use his prophetic advantage and use his royal status to create a family business for himself, and he can put forward some suggestions within his ability, whether it is military, political, or economic, don't be stingy if you know it, and say everything you need. It's best if someone listens, and if no one listens. If you are lucky, the wings of your butterfly let Germany win the First World War, then you can continue to be a prince, and if you are unlucky, as in history, Germany was defeated and went into exile in neutral countries such as the Netherlands and Switzerland to become a capitalist.

Therefore, the little guy who has figured it out understands that it is time to absorb the nutrients while he is working hard. No matter what you can do or what you can change, you need to have enough talent. Although he has a vision far beyond this era, he was built on the achievements of the information explosion in the 21st century, but in terms of talent, Yoheng knows that he is only a middle-aged person. So instead of worrying about the future of the empire, it is better to cherish the time in front of you. What kind of storm can be fanned by this little butterfly, let's talk about it later.

Author's Note:

The ideas of the article's demand for German sea power and Bismarck's erroneous foreign policy are mainly derived from "Sea Power and State Power Modern Volume", which can be regarded as the framework of the author's fundamental idea for writing this novel. It is strongly recommended that friends who are interested in the First World War read it.

By the way, the author is not a German stick, and he is especially against Nazi Germany, but as the article says, Germany in World War I was really detained in a basin, and it was not a person inside and out. Hence this novel.