Of course, there are still some intelligent people who can judge from some ideas that there is a possibility that the relevant discussion is likely to come from the "Holy Will", but the author seems to be a public identity rather than an anonymous pseudonym, which makes it difficult to determine easily.

At this time, Huang Dou, who is one of the professors of the Central College, said bluntly from the most open journal: "The challenges brought about by the automation of tools will be there now, and there will be a return in the future. The tools of work will improve, but how can the market never change? In the face of the consumption of wealthy families who can only be supported by millions of taels of silver or tens of thousands of acres of fertile land, how many people can feel that they don't care about that kind of life at all? What if people around you could do it all? If everyone has a palace-level garden and pavilion, eats the delicacies of the mountains and seas with good working hours, wears silk and satin, and sleeps on the latest upholstered windows, if according to the existing labor efficiency, how much labor is needed to maintain a family to live such a life? If silk weaving can save manpower on a large scale, it will open up more labor and jobs in many new fields such as culture, commerce, logistics, housekeeping, education or medicine. It may seem that many people will lose their jobs in the short term, but from the medium- to long-term perspective of the overall economic development, it provides space for the development of the broader economy. Progress in the true sense of the word is not to completely equalize the wealth and poverty of the backward rural areas, but to make more and more people rich. During the Xia Dynasty or some small barbarian countries, only kings, chieftains and even a few nobles could live a decent life, while in the Tang Dynasty, people like Zhumen who were not nobles surnamed Li could also become rich. Eventually, the automation of the economy and the development of channels will reach a certain level, and the bourgeoisie will become the main body of society, and the laborers will become the minority group of society. This is a trend in the evolution of the economy and class over thousands of years. In the past, there were ten insufficiencies, but when people's economy and consumption level reached a certain level, they would eventually encounter the threshold of consumption desire and spread in a horizontal direction. . . ”

In fact, the imagination of some people is not the same, this article is really not Xiao Xuan personally sent the draft outline to Huang Dou for publication, but more of Huang Dou's own understanding over the years, which also makes Xiao Xuan feel a little excited.

Because Xiao Xuan felt that his remarks may not be absolutely correct, but he suddenly jumped from the time when Adam Smith was not to a level even further than Bombavik, and to a large extent got rid of the dogma of the supremacy of the mathematical model of Western economics, or the so-called "Luthor economics" that only talks about the butt and does not talk about the head, and also began to involve some content related to politics or psychology and economics at the beginning.

This also allowed Xiao Xuan to find Huang Dou who made him a little impressed again in his busy schedule of starting over, but what is different from himself is that because many things that happened in history have historical experience, even in modern semi-colonial China, the invasion of foreign capital and commodities only brought some small waves at the beginning, and on the whole, it did not fundamentally shake the basic trend of economic development. When some industries go bankrupt or are depressed, there will always be new industries and channels. However, when Xiao Xuan talked about the future and felt that artificial intelligence in the 21st century would not be as alarmist as some people said, Huang Dou's view was more popular, and of course he had many things of his own: "The first or second industrial revolution, and even the third industrial revolution, can maintain the continuous expansion of the industrialized population while gathering and breaking out, in fact, from the nineteenth century to the twentieth century, the continuous expansion of fossil energy and source channels." In the first seven decades of the twentieth century alone, oil production increased almost a hundredfold. From World War II to the beginning of the 21st century, Sunset Heavy Industry expanded tenfold. In addition, the transformation of the seller's market to the buyer's market and the development of marketing have brought about the improvement of the entire market, which has greatly relieved the pressure on employment. But in the 21st century, if there is no revolutionary breakthrough in the energy field but let the field of artificial intelligence come to the front, when the work of programmers can also be massively automated, perhaps a new round of population elimination is coming, because the market has become far from comparable to the early 20th century, it has become perfect enough, it is difficult to have a large number of new industries... ”

Xiao Xuan didn't fully agree with these words, because he felt that artificial intelligence that could be widely programmed and self-upgraded would not progress as fast, but the discussion about the future also began to make Xiao Xuan feel that in this era, especially when the promotion stage that began in the early days of the industrial revolution is prone to bring a large number of unemployment and bankruptcy, the implementation of "unconditional basic income" in some of the richest and best economic conditions can not be satisfied, or can be satisfied with the minimum guarantee, only theoretically, Experimenting with the social effects of some policies? At the very least, this kind of social security is not operationally so operational that modern Western governments in the twenty-first century are largely a headache. ”

"You have also been responsible for a lot of relief and disaster relief, I don't know if you know: if it is in summer and not winter, to ensure the minimum survival of the disaster victims--- temporary survival instead of work-for-relief, excluding young children, what is the minimum amount of food rations needed?"

"You mean the least? If a man who weighs not too much, about 100 pounds, if he is in bed all day without being exposed to the wind and cold, the ration of about half a pound a day should be enough. It is probably less than 200 catties of finished grain per person-year, or about 300 catties of raw grain. Of course, this is also based on coarse grains. Of course, disaster relief is often done in practice. Of course, in fact, it is not possible to eat, and it is supplemented by begging for exile or other means. But it also greatly reduces all kinds of mess.

Hearing this, Xiao Xuan also roughly calculated in his heart: even if the life of the disaster victims is compared with the per capita economy of the richest places in the central governorate of southern Jiangsu and northern Zhejiang, it is only about one to ten. It would also be about one-third of the total fiscal income among adults, which is still largely unacceptable. After all, the economic foundations of even the richest places in this agricultural era are somewhat weak. However, if the most basic hydraulic or primary machinery can further improve the economy of some urban areas, it may be a different story?

(End of chapter)