Chapter 56 Answer I

"Fritz, in my opinion, if the three things of land, people, and city are dealt with separately and independently, then it will only be the same as now, and every thing and every problem will go around in circles in its own labyrinth, and in the end no one will be able to get out of the labyrinth. But if you can put them together and look at them together, you will find a solution to the problem. Sir Grusen said this, noticing the glint in Joey's eyes, and Sir Gruson smiled at Joey and continued.

"Our problems start with the land, so our thinking starts from the land."

"A large number of Germans are fixed to the land, engaged in cheap agricultural production, and under the onslaught of cheap foreign grain, if they do not raise tariffs to protect the price of their grain, then they will go bankrupt, this is the argument that the Iron Valley Alliance has been preaching." Sir Gruson looked at the father and son opposite, and continued when they had no objections.

"But does the increase in tariffs mean that the income of German farmers will definitely increase? The income of the German peasants comes from the income of the land crops, and the cultivation of cheap grain crops cannot be sold at the price level of high-value cash crops and animal husbandry in any case, and no matter how the price of cereals is protected, the peasants' income will not change qualitatively. For example, wheat, the most expensive grain of the present day, was around 185 marks per metric ton of wheat from 1860 onwards. ”

"At such a price, you can't even buy a full-fledged mule and horse in Germany. However, on the land that produces one metric ton of wheat, hundreds of cows or horses can be raised. ”

"The most important thing in German agriculture now is to seek a more economically profitable way out for German farmers, instead of blindly protecting those backward products that have no comparative advantage in world trade, and there will never be a way out if they are backward." Sir Grusen said firmly.

"Tariffs have been raised, but who will benefit in the end? It was the traders, not the farmers, who got the benefits! The grain merchants who trade grain between countries get the ultimate benefit from the rise in tariffs, while the big Junkers and farmers don't actually get a penny, but it is the common people and workers in the cities who suffer in the end. ”

"Merchants neither produce nor consume, they rely on circulation to make money, and raising tariffs means that there are more links in circulation, and the more links there are, the more means merchants have to make profits, which means that merchants will make more profits from between producers and consumers!"

But the prosperity of Germany depended on the workers and peasants, on the output of industry, not on the circulation of merchants. What is the fate of the Portuguese, the Spaniards, and the Dutch, who were once great merchants in world trade? In the past, the big countries of the Golden Triangle trade route, the Spanish relied on the protection of the French after the Industrial Revolution, and the Portuguese and Dutch also relied on the protection of the British after the Industrial Revolution, and business without industry is a joke. ”

"So Germany could have survived without merchants, but without workers and peasants, Germany would not have survived a single day." Sir Gruson clearly pointed to the crux of the matter.

"Germany's cheap label has to be changed, but it won't happen immediately tomorrow, it will take some time. But during this time, if you can't stabilize the key factor: the workers. If the workers cannot be fed and work hard, but forced to think all day long about how to fill their bellies by striking to raise wages, then even with the best equipment and the best means of production, Germany will not be able to produce high-quality products. Therefore, the provision of cheap and sufficient food to the workers was a necessary and sufficient prerequisite for German industrialization. ”

"In the same way, without cheap grain, the urban civilians who serve industry will be equally unable to concentrate on their work, the hungry police will not have the energy to catch criminals, the hungry sanitation workers will not clean the city, the hungry artisans will close their shops, and the city will eventually die."

"Therefore, it is absolutely impossible to agree to the plan of the Iron Valley Union to raise the tariff on grain, and the increase in tariffs means that the various strata of Germany will not get any benefit except for the big traders." Grusen made his point clear.

"But... If tariffs are not raised, the Junkers will have to sell their grain at a low price, and won't it be the farmers who will suffer in the end? Crown Prince Frederick thought about it and came up with a different opinion.

"So to liberate the peasants from the land." Sir Gruson answered the question bluntly.

"Liberation? But now that the factories are dismissing the workers, and I free the peasants, the unemployed will eat the Germans. The crown prince immediately shook his head and said.

"So, that's what Fritz requires you to do, or rather, you need to do on behalf of the country. Just like in your speech at the salon yesterday, you are giving a gesture of state intervention on behalf of the government to the German scientific community, and the state must give proper guidance to economic life! Grusen said categorically.

"Fritz, I know you advocate liberalism, and so do I. But I don't think the state should ignore economic life, the role of the state is to guide the development of the economy, as you said yesterday. The necessary and appropriate state guidance is fundamental to the solution of all German problems today, and the development of a free economy is guaranteed under the premise of state guidance. Of course, I have always opposed state intervention and meddling in economic affairs! Sir Gruson said in a seductive manner.

"Fritz, you see, our Jojo has understood me. Come, Joey, tell me and your father what you think. Sir Gruson said to Joey with a smile.

"Well, Uncle Herman, the order in which you ask questions is land, people, and cities, and I think the order in which you solve problems should be cities, people, and land, right?" Joey replied cautiously.

Sir Gruson's eyes lit up, and he said with some joy, "Jojo, tell me about it." ”

"As Uncle Herman has been reminding you before, if one problem is solved one by one, then all problems are always in a maze, and no one can get around. But if we look at the city from the perspective, it seems that many problems can be solved. Joey said as he looked at the key points he had written down in his notebook as he slowly organized his language.

"Go on, Joey." Sir Gruson continued to encourage.

"If Germany can promote urbanization as soon as possible, for example, Germany's existing small towns of 10,000 people, small cities of 50,000 people, large cities of 100,000 people, and megacities of more than 500,000 people, if the number of these cities is doubled in five years, then at least about 10 million German farmers can be absorbed into the cities. It is estimated that by about 1885, the ratio of urban population to agricultural population can be 1/2, and there should be about 20 million urban population. Joey carefully calculated.

"Haha, Fritz, little Jojo has not done actual economic surveys, can only be carefully calculated, so his data is too conservative. At present, the urban rate in Germany is less than 30%, if it is extrapolated according to the development of the United Kingdom, the 30% urban rate is the threshold, if it can be broken, the British took less than 5 years, quickly broke through from 30% to 70%, that is, if we focus on the German urbanization process now, then in about 5 years, we can at least 70% of the population from the land. ”

"If the urbanization of Germany had been completed in 1884, there would have been at least 30 million urban populations. Of course, this is ideal, at worst, I hope no later than 1890. This benefit, on the one hand, brings labor to industrial production, and on the other hand, it can reduce the manual labor on the land, which facilitates the mechanization of agriculture, thereby reducing the cost of land, and ultimately the Junkers can profit from the land. Sir Grusen added.

"Fritz, the urbanization of Germany was extended to industry. If the government promotes urbanization, it means that there is a lot of infrastructure, roads need to be built, a lot of public facilities need to be built, houses and shops need to be built. This also means that there is a way out for Germany's steel industry and manufacturing industry, and the resumption of steel and manufacturing means that more labor is hired, and these people who are pouring into the cities have jobs, and the more jobs in the cities, it means that more people are released in the countryside. ”

"Fewer rural people means more land can be freed up for intensive mechanical production, and ultimately the Junkers will benefit." Sir Gruson carefully analyzed for the Crown Prince.

"Urban construction requires planning, and I agree with Uncle Hermann that we can make a plan for 5 years, or even 10 years. The year 1885 can be used as an important checkpoint. In the early stage, we must do a good job of planning, divide industrial cities, transportation hub cities and comprehensive cities in detail, give different urban layouts for different city types, and plan municipal construction, especially roads, water supply and drainage and electricity. Joey added excitedly.

"Yesterday, I was thinking about how to develop an electric power company, but I didn't expect that electricity is related to urban development. Without a high degree of urbanization, there would be no clever use of electricity, and Edison was able to develop an electric empire in Greater New York City, which was based on the objective reality of New York. I actually forgot about this, how could it be possible to build electrified high-rises without the foundations of urbanization, thanks to Uncle Herman's talk today, otherwise the money invested in the fund would not necessarily be able to implement those inventions. Joey secretly rejoiced.

"Joey is right, the city's siting and utility design has to go first, and beyond that, we need people. There is a shortage of designers, we can spend money to hire urban designers in the United Kingdom and the United States, but construction workers are a shortcoming in our reality, we need a large number of professional workers to engage in the construction of cities, although young people have now popularized primary education, but it does not mean that they can be qualified for these professional jobs. Sir Grusen pointed out a problem.

"Re-training, Uncle Herman, as I said earlier, open schools to retrain them in new skills, train the peasants who have gone to the city, let the peasants understand what the city is, and adapt to the rules and habits of the city as soon as possible, instead of blindly driving them in; Train workers who have lost their jobs and teach them new job skills. Only the workers and peasants who have passed the training can be engaged in urban construction and industrial production, and they must be armed with new knowledge! Joey said hurriedly.

"Where does the money for training come from?" The crown prince asked a practical question.