Bismarck did not come here to relax, he was not a patient man, and he was anxious to find a way to establish strategic relations with China.

In the next few days, after he became acquainted with the diplomatic circles of Nanjing, communicated with the Chinese Imperial Court, and completed some official procedures, he began to frequently look through the archives accumulated by the consulate over the past few years, and he wanted to find out the ruling context of the Chinese rulers, especially their foreign policies, and he hoped to accurately judge the direction of China's diplomacy.

It's hard, China has won all the wars that should be won, their momentum over the years has been unstoppable, they have got everything they want, they don't seem to have a clear direction of expansion.

In North America, they have drawn a clear border with Britain and the United States, and the contradictions are mainly concentrated in the Panama Canal under construction, but the canal obviously cannot evolve into a contradiction enough to cause war, at least the United States has two attitudes, one side believes that the opening of the canal is beneficial to the United States, and the other side believes that the opening of the canal is too threatening to the United States. Britain's power in North America was on a downward trend relative to other countries, and war in that direction was clearly unlikely. At most, it is around the Spanish colony, playing a game of supporting each other's puppets.

In the direction of India, where the Chinese have built a group of scattered small states. Assam and Manipur, between Burma and China, formed two separate vassals, to which China appointed kings to rule, and interestingly, both states are currently ruled by the crown prince of China. These two places are geographically located in the upper reaches of Bengal, but are more of East Asian ancestry.

Burma was also divided into several ethnic kingdoms, and instead of sending kings to the country, China appointed the most powerful families in the region to rule the royal family. The most powerful kingdom of Burma exerted tremendous pressure on these small kings in the surrounding area, which were heavily dependent on China.

The British kept the main body of India south of the Ganges at the cost of paying a billion pounds in reparations, which is only half of the compensation so far, and it will take twenty years to pay the reparations. When the two sides demarcated the border, there were some disputes, mainly the determination of the main channel of the Ganges, the Ganges is a complex water system, the British tried to locate the main river farther north, and China considered it to be the river further south, and finally the two sides jointly carried out a flow measurement and demarcated the river with the largest amount of water as the main road, which resolved the difference.

The area north of the Ganges and east of the Ganges is assigned to China, and in the Bengal region east of the Ganges, China has placed it under the jurisdiction of African companies. The Chinese do not seem to value the territory here, have no desire to incorporate it into the mainland, and leave it to an overseas company. But the British valued it very much, after all, the population of British India was more than 100 million.

If China does not pay attention to it, there will be no conflict, and Britain attaches great importance to it, but it is unable to expand, Bismarck judged that there is a balance here.

From the archives he could not discern the direction of China's diplomacy, but he found a strange phenomenon.

"Why do you think the Chinese would support Russian expansion into Poland?"

Bismarck found the matter full of strangeness, and he consulted with the vice-consul and a counsellor.

The vice-consul disagreed: "The Russians deceived China, and their tsar promised to sign a peace treaty, but then did not fulfill his promise, which everyone knows." ”

Yes, everyone knows that it is evaluated by diplomatic circles as a classic strategic deception.

Bismarck wondered: "If the tsar had a promise, why didn't China retaliate after that?" Only diplomats were sent to urge. There were no strong means, as if they didn't care at all whether the tsar signed or not. ”

The fact that the Tsar did not sign, but that China did not continue to attack, and that the army was demobilized afterwards is also a diplomatic puzzle, and it is believed that the good personal relationship between the Chinese Emperor and the Russian vassal Speransky contributed to this.

The vice-consul said: "The Chinese emperor was deceived by the tsar, so he supported Russia in the war, and when he found out that he had been deceived, but there was no need to take military action for this established fact, he could only acquiesce." ”

This is the unanimous judgment of the diplomatic community.

Bismarck shook his head and said, "There is a fundamental logical error here. If the Chinese do not attach importance to signing, then they will not support Russia so strongly, and if they attach importance to signing, they will not be indifferent at the time. I saw only one point, the Chinese want Russia to go west! ”

"Why is that?"

The vice consul asked.

Bismarck took a breath: "The Chinese want Russia to have a conflict with the Western powers!" ”

He was a little nervous, not under pressure, but a kind of excitement, an excitement that grasped the essence of the problem.

"What does that mean?"

"It shows that China is consciously creating enemies for Russia, and they will not give up, and they plan to attack Russia!"

Bismarck said with great certainty.

On the one hand, the vice-consul was a little surprised by his keen eye, and on the other hand, he felt that Bismarck might think too complicated about the problem, the international situation is changing rapidly, and the Chinese began to set a trap for Russia a few years ago.

And the vice-consul said: "But shouldn't China's competitor be Britain?" They are competitors in industry, commerce, trade, finance and even colony! ”

China and Britain are competitors, and Britain is China's only competitor, and this is also the consensus of diplomatic circles.

Bismarck shook his head slightly.

"No, there is another interest, a higher interest than all the practical interests of industry, commerce, trade, and finance!"

Everyone else was puzzled.

Bismarck replied: "That is the security of the country, the greatness of the nation!" ”

The vice consul smiled and said, "Bismarck, do you think that Russia can threaten China's security?" ”

Bismarck said: "At least a hidden danger." It is impossible for any country to rest assured that its neighbor is an empire with a vast territory, a population of tens of millions, a rapidly growing national strength, and an extremely unfriendly empire. You have not been to the borders of China, where the military zone is designed exactly according to the military zone, where everyone has to join the army, and everyone has to be trained. However, they did not do so in India, and there was no similar system in the Americas. Why is that? Because China sees Russia as a threat! ”

The vice-consul became serious at this time, and he suggested that the Chinese military system in India and the Americas and the border area with Britain should be investigated, and Bismarck told them that there was no need, that he had already contacted the American consul, and they denied that China had adopted a compulsory military service system on the Sino-American or Sino-British borders, and that only the western border with Russia was set up in this way, which was enough to explain everything.

The vice consul immediately rejoiced: "In this way, isn't the problem simple, and you will probably be able to complete the task soon." China must be more than happy to ally with Prussia against Russia! ”

Bismarck frowned: "No, it's the problem that has become complicated!" I would have thought that their main strategic direction would definitely be the United Kingdom, because the country in general would certainly be like that. But they don't, they take the security of their borders too seriously, and even though they have absolute strength, they still take institutional precautions against potential threats. Their main strategic direction turned out to be Russia. Have you ever thought about the question, why China has not attacked Russia in recent years, is it because their national strength is not enough? ”

Without waiting for someone else to answer, Bismarck asked himself: "No! The reason why they were able to keep their main attack on Russia was not because they lacked absolute power, but because they were concerned about other problems. Perhaps it was the threat of the British, who feared that if they started to strike at Russia, then Britain would enter the war. Or some other reason that we haven't figured out yet. In short, their strategic direction is in Russia, and they will definitely attack Russia, but when and under what circumstances, we have no way of judging. If they are worried about Britain, this is not an opportunity for us in Prussia to take advantage of, because if we want China to attack Russia, we have to make sure to help them hold Britain back. It was an absolute disaster to put Prussia at the forefront of direct confrontation with Britain in order to strike at Russia. So when China strikes Russia, we don't have the slightest chance. At most, as in the previous two times when Russia was in trouble, it took the opportunity to slightly expand its interests in the Polish direction. But when Russia recovers its national strength, the first thing is to retaliate. It doesn't make sense at all! ”

The vice consul sighed: "It's very strange, isn't your mission here to unite China against Russia, and now that you have discovered China's strategic intentions against Russia, you are starting to worry again." This makes no sense at all. Do we have to be wary of Britain's attitude, and if Britain does not agree, we will not be able to take back the rights that rightfully belong to us? Mr. Bismarck, I would like to remind you that Britain is only a purely maritime power, and on continental affairs, our national strategy, does not need London to formulate! ”

Bismarck smiled bitterly: "That's right, we have enough autonomy over mainland affairs. But let's not forget that although Britain is a maritime country, it is indeed a unique maritime country. We are a continental country, but there is more than one continental country like us. France, Austria, what do you think they will choose? If we fight against the British, will they too? In the tradition of British diplomacy, once we confront the British, they will certainly win over at least one country and fight us on land! Do you think that when China strikes Russia, can we still have a chance to carve up Russia in the case of Britain uniting with Austria or France? ”

The vice-consul and the counsellor were bewildered by Bismarck's complicated but seemingly logical and cleansed thinking.

"So we don't have an alliance with China, or we don't have the opportunity to profit from an alliance with China?"

The two of them understood it this way.

Bismarck nodded: "Unless we can create a big enough contradiction between Britain and Russia, and then let Britain promote an anti-Russian alliance and at the same time exclude China." But this is another dead knot, Britain and Russia have many contradictions, but these contradictions are not enough to suppress the contradictions between Britain and China. Even if Britain wants to attack Russia, it will certainly be limited to not weakening Russia too much. Even if Britain goes to war with Russia directly, once China enters the war, Britain will immediately seek peace, and even use Chinese pressure to quickly get Russia to compromise. Therefore, if we want Russia to suffer a greater blow, we must delay China's entry into the war as much as possible. Otherwise, Prussia's geographical position would either choose to remain neutral, or it would have to become the first target of the British. ”

The vice-consul still couldn't keep up with Bismarck's train of thought.

It's almost like asking, "So what do you think you should do?" ”

Bismarck sighed: "There is only one way, and that is to wait for the direction of the Black Sea to see if there is any change!" ”