Chapter 164, Currency Wars
After World War I, the French government was forced to adopt a policy of paper money inflation in response to the financial crisis, and the French announced that they would abandon the gold standard, kicking off the currency war.
The French were the first to play this game, and everyone was unprepared, and at that time the franc was the second most circulated international currency in the world, and a large number of franc holders paid for them and suffered heavy losses.
However, the French government's original plan did not succeed, and ideally it would be enough to issue at most double the currency and devalue the franc by half.
In the end, because of the failure of various governments, the market lost confidence in the franc and fell sharply, and finally depreciated tenfold before stabilizing the value of the currency.
However, the amount of the franc was far less than ten times overissued, and the losses included the loss of credit, the resulting inflation, and the profits from the government's printing of currency, and more often more in the hands of the capitalists.
In this currency war, the financial supremacy of the British pound was once again established, and Lev also came from behind to replace the franc as the second largest currency in circulation in the world.
Although the French were not entirely successful in this operation, they did get out of the financial crisis, paid a huge war pension, and avoided the bankruptcy of the government.
Even in later economic activities, with the sharp depreciation of the franc, the price competitiveness of French goods was greatly enhanced, and it is still relevant today.
However, the aftermath was also quite serious, and the wealth of the French people was also plundered, including the small capitalists and the middle class, which suffered heavy losses.
This is also a characteristic of European countries in this era, ordinary people do not care much about inflation, because they simply do not have extra money in their hands, and naturally they cannot talk about much loss.
With the collapse of the petty bourgeoisie and the middle class, social wealth in France became more concentrated, and small factories engaged in processing and manufacturing went bankrupt.
It can be said that even without Ferdinand's guidance, France would have embarked on the path of deindustrialization, just look at the development of French industry in history.
It was only ten years after the World War that the total volume of French industry returned to its pre-war level, and it is important to remember that in the First World War, the area of France also expanded, and the population increased by several millions.
In reality, at the outbreak of World War II, France's industrial share was actually inferior to World War I, and it is not surprising that the French government would surrender immediately.
Now it is the turn of the British, affected by the economic crisis, the London government has also announced the abandonment of the gold standard, and the big capitalists all over the world are grinding their fists and ready to snatch a piece of meat from it.
However, the pound is not the same as the franc, the pound is the world currency, this is the foundation laid by the British with the Royal Navy, and it is not easy to break the pound.
"How much has the value of the pound fallen since the London government abandoned the gold standard?" Ferdinand asked with concern
"Your Majesty, in the past two months, the pound has depreciated by 8.5 percent, and we have not yet made a full move, and the major consortia are only tentatively resisting.
If, without other factors, the pound could end up depreciating by between 30 and 35 percent! Chancellor of the Exchequer Kennedy replied
Ferdinand frowned, the foundation of the British Empire is really thick, and people in the market have not lost confidence in the pound, even if Bulgaria makes a move, there is no way to beat them to the bottom like the franc!
"What if there is an external intervention?" Ferdinand continued
"Your Majesty, it depends on the circumstances, and the worst result may be that the pound will be turned into waste paper, and the easiest may have no effect at all.
As long as the Royal Navy is completely annihilated, or the main force is greatly damaged, it can be done.
Other factors, including the British government being hit hard, or going to war with a major power, and the intensification of the domestic crisis, could depreciate the pound! Kennedy said humorously
Ferdinand nodded, the influence of the British is not covered, after the depreciation of the pound, more than a dozen countries in the world have abandoned the gold standard.
By abandoning the gold standard at this time, these countries were undoubtedly sharing the firepower for the British, and what the international consortium wanted was to take advantage of it.
It doesn't matter which country you want to bite off a piece of meat from, there is no need to fight the British to the end.
Except for Bulgarian capital, which is fighting the pound out of political needs, the rest of the international consortiums are scattered bets, and whichever side is easy to make money, they will kill there.
"It's not okay to attack head-on, so you can only come to the dark, and prepare to issue counterfeit money!" Ferdinand said with a sigh
This is the last option, after many years of hard work by the Bulgarian technical department, now they can also make pounds.
Of course, this is a fake pound, but it can be done as fake and real, under normal circumstances, everyone will not be able to recognize it.
Ferdinand did not want to adopt such an approach, the sequelae are too great, and once this is opened, it is often endless.
"Your Majesty, we haven't reached this point yet, we can make fake pounds, then the British can also make fake levs, it's a complete lose-lose situation!" Kennedy said in embarrassment
Now the British and Bulgarian countries, competition is competition, but it has not yet reached the point where the bayonet is red, once this step is taken, there is no turning back!
"Isn't it okay not to let the British know? Even if it's a fake pound, we don't have to do it ourselves?
In these years, there are many people who are short of money, and we only need to produce a few sets of pound printing equipment and sell them in secret, and someone will naturally do the rest for us!
As long as the fake pound is not printed by us, let the British slowly find it themselves, it has nothing to do with us whether they can find it or not.
We dismantled all the printing equipment and turned it into parts for export, which could also be mixed with some parts produced by the British themselves, and then assembled when they arrived at the place. Ferdinand said with a smile
This idea was inspired by Ferdinand by the Japanese, and during the War of Resistance Against Japan, the Japanese government printed a large amount of fiat currency, which washed away the economy of the Nationalist government.
Now he is making a bunch of fake pounds, not to mention that he can bring down the British economy, but let the pound depreciate more violently, this is always okay, right?
An 8 percent drop has not been able to break the market's credibility for the pound, but if it becomes a 40 percent, 50 percent, or even 780 percent decline, isn't this confidence still broken?
You know, in the case of the depreciation of the pound, the more they hold the pound, the greater their loss, even if they have more confidence in the pound and see the continuous loss of wealth in their hands, they will make the right choice.
In order to stop losses, reducing the pound has become the only option for everyone. As long as there are people in the market who continue to insist on the pound, then the London government will not want to depreciate the pound.
Inflation to stimulate the economy is unlikely to last, and every currency depreciation is delaying the crisis, not saying that it can be resolved.
When a sharp currency depreciation occurs, more and more people in the market will lose confidence in the pound, and finally it will be fed back to the circulation of the pound.
Internationally, the holding of the pound is low, which means that the international currency status of the pound has been shaken, and it also means that other currencies will gradually become bigger.
"Your Majesty, these are not enough, we can also follow up on the depreciation of the currency, but we don't have to give up the gold standard, and directly lower the ratio of Lev to gold!" Kennedy thought for a moment and suggested
"No, the value of Lev's currency cannot be shaken at this time, and don't forget that in the past two months, Lev's holdings in the international market have increased by 18.6 percent.
Now we are already beginning to encroach on the position of the pound, and at this time to devalue the lev, all the previous efforts have been in vain.
Let Lev replace the British pound as the international currency, how big the benefits are, I don't need to say this, everyone knows.
Compared to this, the others are not worth mentioning at all, Bulgaria's largest export market is in Southeast Europe, as long as this part of the basic market is not lost, let them compete! Ferdinand said, shaking his head
The establishment of monetary credit is not something that can be completed overnight, even if it is linked to gold, everyone still has doubts about holding small goods.
Lev's rise has been very fast, and the original competitors are almost dead, and only the pound is left.
For example: the ruble, after the outbreak of the civil war in Russia, played itself to death.
Another example: the Deutsche Mark killed his credibility because of the war reparations.
Another example: the dollar, which became history with the collapse of the United States.
There is also the franc, which was sacrificed by the French government to solve the financial crisis, thus losing the possibility of becoming a world currency.
There is a good saying, "If you want to build a world monetary system, you must first establish a world hegemonic system!" ”
Now that the hegemon of the world is still some distance from Bulgaria, it will naturally not be easy for Lev to replace the British pound as the world currency at this time.
Ferdinand did not want to take a step to the sky, he just wanted to shake the position of the pound, and then affect the British economy, and at the same time send a signal to the outside world that the British are in decline, and prepare for the future.
"Then the only way to keep the franc depreciating is to find a way to keep it depreciating, and as long as the war of currency devaluation is provoked, the British will either continue to follow up or let the existing plan go down the drain." Kennedy thought for a moment and said
If you want to rely on currency depreciation to gain competitiveness, it's that simple, as long as everyone depreciates together, whose market can the British go to grab?
Bulgaria can not participate, because it rose too late, and the market has long been divided and played by the old empire. As a rising star, they can only rely on Southeast Europe, as well as the local market development.
In other markets, Bulgaria still has some advantages in food processing and machinery and equipment manufacturing, while other industries can only sell oil.
No matter how the market changes, the two rigid demand industries, food and oil, at most, are in declining demand and cannot be banned.
Even if all countries adopt tariff barriers, no country has imposed restrictions on food imports and oil imports.
With the support of these two industries, Ferdinand can naturally sit firmly in the Diaoyutai.
The rest of the machinery and equipment manufacturing, at this time there is no market, everyone is compressing production capacity, who still buys machinery and equipment?
No matter how strong the competitiveness is, it is not needed in the market, and it is not in vain!
"Secretly pushing, the French economy is not having a good time now, and they will not mind another currency devaluation.
At the same time, also induce Germany and Italy, let them join the depreciation army, and finally see if they can win! Ferdinand said with a sneer
He hoped that the British would hold out to the end, and then he would not have to do anything, and the British would play the pound to death themselves.
The current British Empire is different from the United States in later generations, and the Americans are the only one.
As for the British, there are still many countries that dare to challenge their hegemony during this period, especially the rapid rise of Bulgaria, and the comprehensive national strength of the two sides is very close.
The two sides did not fight, because the conflict of interests between the two sides was not big enough to make the two countries desperate.
But competition is indispensable, if the pound continues to depreciate, who would dare to hold a large amount?
Can a currency that no one sustain become an international currency?
……