"Jojo, what do you mean, now we've stopped doing nothing?" Prime Minister Bismarck asked with a frown.

Joey glanced at the ugly Prime Minister, and after a moment of silence, he said slowly, "My lord, these things you are planning are very important to Germany, and I don't mean not to not do it, but to stop and wait and see." ”

"There is an interesting sentence in this diplomatic statement by the British, which appreciates our view that the existence of the Franco-Russian alliance is a disruption of the European equilibrium, but insists on its own policy of isolating Europe."

"The British's statement, from a positive point of view, is definitely a positive encouragement to us to come forward to maintain the balance of power in Europe, but without considering in the slightest whether Germany has the strength to maintain this balance on its own without Britain entering into an alliance with Germany."

"In addition, from the point of view of the inherently evil of human nature, it is not that the British are hinting to France and Russia that the Germans, not the British, are in fact hindering the forces of the Franco-Russian alliance, and the British do not care about the change in the balance of power in Europe."

"What can we do if we are pushed to the front of the Franco-Russian alliance, and the British are trading us behind our backs to reap the benefits of all parties?"

The angle from which Joey's words started was indeed dark enough that Crown Prince Frederick and Chancellor Bismarck couldn't help but raise their eyebrows.

However, the darker the speculation, the more direct it is to the darkness in people's hearts.

Crown Prince Frederick twisted his brows, looked at Chancellor Bismarck, and handed out a silent hint, Chancellor Bismarck hesitated for a moment, then nodded firmly, and then smiled and said to Joey encouragingly, "Jojo, tell me what you want to do, don't worry about saying something wrong." ”

even took the initiative to pour a cup of hot tea for Joey, this intimate act surprised Joey, quite restless, it seemed that the smiling father and the prime minister, finally completely let go of their guards, and said boldly.

"I asked a group of mathematicians at the Allensbach Institute who were proficient in statistics to create a mathematical model that would analyze changes in British foreign policy, starting with the Seven Years' War."

The mathematical model in Joy's mouth should be said to be derived from the mathematical analysis tools commonly used in European and American think tanks to study the long-term politics, economy and foreign policy of a certain country.

Of course, because there is no large-scale supercomputer in the 21st century to provide the support of complex calculations, the only computing tools that can be relied on are mechanical computers and slide rules in the 19th century, so this mathematical model has eliminated a lot of mathematical variables, and the model has become simple, but the core method of using mathematical methods to construct an analytical model to analyze a country's politics, economy and military is dazzling, and it is originally a vague speculation about the future of many things. It becomes a question of probability that can be visually represented numerically.

With the existence of the Ahensbach Institute, mathematics is no longer a high mystery in the ivory tower, but has become the key to finding the essence of things, turning theoretical mathematics into applied mathematics, which is the most precious treasure that Ahensbach research has brought to Germany.

"After putting all known foreign agreements of the United Kingdom into this mathematical model, excluding trade agreements and military agreements, the statistical final conclusion is that in terms of political commitments between countries, the ratio of prior commitments to post-agreements reached by the British government is only 35.7%."

"This ratio, which the Ahensbach Institute calls diplomatic credibility, is used to calculate the diplomatic credibility of a certain government."

"Of course, when it comes to complex inter-state relations, such as the change of government, the change of political system and the long time period of diplomatic commitments, in order to accurately show the diplomatic credibility of the government held by a certain party, the Ahensbach Institute has once again screened the credibility of diplomacy under the auspices of the Tory/Conservative Party in the above data."

"The end result is that the diplomatic integrity of the Conservative government is 29.2%" Joy dryly spat out an ugly figure, which means that from the beginning of the 17th century to the present, more than 60% of the political diplomatic commitments made by the British Conservative government to foreign countries are fraudulent.

"There are also a few interesting figures, the world thinks that the Russians are the most untrustworthy people, but in fact, in terms of the political diplomatic commitments made by the Russians to the European countries, the Russian diplomatic integrity is 55.6%, which is much more honest than the British."

"The diplomatic integrity of the Austro-Hungarian Empire under Emperor Franz was the best of all European governments, at 69.8 percent, while the government of Prime Minister Menett was the worst of all European governments, at 21.6 percent."

"What about me?" Prime Minister Bismarck blinked curiously at Joey.

Twisting his fingers and hesitating for a long time, Joey squirmed and spit out a number, "My lord.... The government of your German Empire .... Yes 52.7%. ”

"But it's much stronger than the French government's 43.7 percent." Joey hurriedly added.

"Huh?!" After thinking for a moment, Bismarck asked, "How much was me before 71 years?" ”

Hearing this question, Joey was even more squirming, reluctant to answer.

"It's better than Menette, right?!" Prime Minister Bismarck asked with a tense face, frowning, not so confident.

"Of course, sir." Joey nodded decisively.

"Is it more than the level of the British government?" Chancellor Bismarck continued to ask.

"Oh.... Almost, not too much. Joey replied in a sloppy tone.

After half a ring, Prime Minister Bismarck shook his head, and when he picked up the teacup and was about to put it to his mouth, he asked Joey, who looked embarrassed, "Jojo, what does this ratio mean?" ”

"My lord, once it comes to politics in diplomacy, it is often a political alliance or a military alliance between countries, and the diplomatic credibility rate on this is low, there are about two situations, either it means that the government belongs to the political swinger, simply put, whoever has thick thighs will hug his thighs, just like Prime Minister Menet's policy at that time."

"On the other hand, the government is not willing to be bound by any covenant, simply put, to take advantage of it, but not to take responsibility, like the isolation policy of the British."

"As for you, my lord, the number before the founding of the German Empire was relatively low, and it was all because of the special period of dynastic wars, and various situations changed very quickly during the war, so many political agreements had to be implemented or abolished according to the changes in the battlefield situation, so this number was low at that time, which is very normal."

"It must be said that after the general stabilization of the situation in Europe in '71, we have a similar rate of creditworthiness to most monarchies, and statistically speaking, the rate of creditworthiness of peacetime monarchies is generally higher than that of republics and constitutional states."

After saying that, Joey wiped his forehead with difficulty.

"So is this integrity value high or low?" Crown Prince Frederick asked curiously.

"Father, this can't be generalized, like special times, such as wars, maybe it can...."Joey gestured downward, "but in the long run, a country's integrity value should be as high as possible." ”

"The higher the country's credit, the lower the cost of the country's operation, the more other countries believe in us, if other countries always have no faith in their words, maybe at a certain moment in front of you, you yourself will not suffer, or even benefit from it, but one day once the shell of power is punctured, all problems will burst out, maybe an empire that took 300 years to build can fall apart in less than 50 years."

"Jojo, do you think Britain might?"

"Father, whether this will be the case in England, I can't be sure if it will be the case, but the Roman Empire, the Frankish Empire in history, and the ending of the HRE and the Ottomans next to us all show that this is a real example." Joey shrugged his shoulders.

In fact, Britain in history is like this, not to mention that such a powerful empire as Britain is the so-called powerful countries that have taken decades to swell rapidly, and do not know what credit is.

That's right, I'm talking about the militaristic RB who has no credibility at all and went to attack Pearl Harbor, and you don't know too much about the rest.

"Frankly, I agree with the British idea that the national interest comes first, but I don't like the British way of doing things, which always like to make promises in advance and then regret them afterwards."

"I don't believe that a government that always keeps its word will always be safe in the face of strong challenges from competitors." Joey kept shaking his head.

Crown Prince Frederick and Bismarck looked at each other, and then asked with a twinkle in their eyes, "Jojo, what kind of foreign policy do you think is better?" ”

"Do your best to abide by the spirit of the contract, talk about diplomacy like a trustworthy businessman talks about a contract, discuss each diplomatic clause in advance like every penny, not only stipulate what everyone needs to abide by, but also clarify the circumstances under which both sides can withdraw."

"In short, Germany does not want to deceive other countries, but it also does not want to be deceived by other countries, and only a win-win diplomatic relationship can be obtained in good faith, which is what I expect."

"Diplomacy requires compromise, Jojo, aren't you prepared to make diplomatic compromises?" Chancellor Bismarck asked solemnly.

"Of course, I will accept the idea of compromise, but I will set a deadline for diplomatic compromise, and if the time is up, and we are not able to get out of the predicament, then continue to compromise, and if we have the ability to get out, we will either end the agreement or ask for new negotiations to reopen to get the benefits we deserve." Joy replied seriously, "As long as a nation has lofty ideals, there is no reason to compromise all the time. ”

"I understand the principle of exchanging time for space, and I am really a child who has read the theory of monarchy, not bad!" Chancellor Bismarck nodded secretly, then nodded slightly to Crown Prince Frederick.

"So, Jojo, what do you mean, according to the research data of the Allensbach Institute, the British praised the German approach in diplomatic statements, and more than 60% of them were probably lying, so what are you going to do from the standpoint of your integrity and win-win?"

"My lord, if the British really agree with the Germans, then the two countries will issue a joint communiqué to show with practical actions the attitude of maintaining peace in Europe, and then we will decide what to do when we have the attitude."

"What if, for many reasons, the British side cannot take a positive position, Jojo, you know, there are a lot of such cases in diplomacy, and it may only give you a verbal promise?" Chancellor Bismarck asked.

"Then we'll make a verbal promise." Joey shrugged, "And then from the point of view of German interests, do what you want." ”

"Jojo, be specific!"

"My lord, if we are to be more specific..... if the British only hold the attitude I said earlier towards our diplomatic statements, and intend to let Germany block the bullets of France and Russia for Britain, then we have no need to care about what the British think, and we can achieve it in another way, and we will always be the largest foreign policy in Europe."

"My suggestion is that after your plan, there should be a backup plan to continue to maintain peace in Europe and to raise the banner of opposition to war, which I will call Plan B, and require us to turn down the tone of war first, and turn up the tone of peace that will bring peace in Europe back to stability. To put it simply, in view of the fact that Britain is not explicitly opposed to or even connived at the Franco-Russian alliance on the European continent that undermines European peace, then Germany can only restore peace on the European continent by creating an alliance. ”

"Create an alliance, we are advancing the Three Emperors Alliance!" Prime Minister Bismarck raised his eyebrows and looked at Joy thoughtfully.

"My lord, this is a new alliance that is different from the model of the Three Emperors Alliance, but a small alliance dedicated to maintaining peace in a certain region, that is, to establish an organization to maintain the safety of navigation of ships in the Baltic Sea, and stipulate that ships sailing in the Baltic Sea must comply with the code of conduct stipulated by all Baltic countries in addition to the principle of freedom of navigation."

"For example, as long as you sail in the Baltic Sea, you need to disclose information about the dynamics of ships, as well as an advance notification mechanism for military navigation to avoid miscalculations, a notification mechanism for military exercises, and even the protection of the ecological environment of the Baltic Sea can be included in the treaty, restricting certain types of ships from certain countries to enter the Baltic Sea."

"Jojo, what is the purpose of this organization?" Crown Prince Frederick couldn't help but ask.

"Father, it can increase security trust between the Baltic countries, and more importantly, as long as this organization is established, it can evolve from a security organization to an economic organization or even an alliance through continuous deepening of cooperation."

"If we follow the current trend of economic development in Germany, I believe that we will become the most important country in the Baltic region, and at that time with the help of this organization we will be able to control Denmark and Sweden through economic ties, at least in a reliable and safe space in our north." Joey whispered.

"Sweden has never believed in the Russians, and has very close relations with us, who are also Protestants, and this is our natural northern ally, and Denmark has always oscillated between Britain and Russia, and the Russians will be happy to include Denmark in this organization to strengthen their control." Prime Minister Bismarck said softly while pondering.

"Moreover, the existence of this organization is also a security barrier for St. Petersburg, and the Russians will be happy to participate in this organization that can secure the Baltic Sea." Joey added.

"But our plan is to gain control of the Strait of Zealand, isn't it?" Crown Prince Frederick thought for a moment, "Is it too much of a roundabout attack?" ”

Crown Prince Frederick couldn't help but use a military term to express his incomprehension.

"Qiaoqiao, you speak first." Prime Minister Bismarck looked at Joey, who was clearly prepared, and motioned for him to come first.

With an apologetic smile, Joy explained, "The control of the Straits of Zealand, and indeed of Denmark, should be said to be our important strategic objectives in the direction of the North Sea and the control of the Baltic Sea, but these two strategic objectives will be regarded by the British as a challenge, and the other will be considered by the Russians to be an offense to their own interests." ”

"It would be unwise to be watched by Britain and Russia at the same time, or even hostile, so we have to hide these two strategic objectives well, and if we can use our economic and cultural strength to influence and control Denmark within an organization that maintains regional peace, and finally annex it peacefully, it is the most conducive way for us to achieve our strategic goals."

"I emphasize economic and cultural influence and control over direct military occupation, because preventing direct military occupation and causing the Danes to revolt, an unstable Denmark will give our enemies and watchers too many opportunities."

"After the control of the Danish economy and culture through purposeful personnel exchanges, capital investment, factory establishment and cultural export, please believe me, we only need a band playing Radethsky's march to Copenhagen to successfully annex Denmark, so now is not the best time for us to occupy Denmark."

For Joey's conclusion, the eyes of Crown Prince Frederick and Chancellor Bismarck were once again intertwined.

"Jojo, what do you think if you can convince the British, I mean, to say the British, support us for swift control of Denmark now?" Prime Minister Bismarck asked as he looked at Joey with a twinkle in his eyes.

"The British now agree with our annexation of Denmark?" Joey wrinkled his face and rubbed his nose a little puzzled, "Although there is no similar military alliance agreement between Britain and Denmark like Anglo-Portuguese and Anglo-Belgian, Denmark can be regarded as one of Britain's quasi-allies. ”

"Britain co-opted Denmark with the intention of encircling Russia's Baltic Fleet, and now it is encouraging us to send troops to Denmark? According to the British in the past hundreds of years, the most effective way to divide, destroy, and provoke disputes is to throw bait, and it seems that selling Denmark is a bargaining chip in the hands of the British. ”

"To whom should Denmark be sold in order to maximize the interests of Britain? Sell to us, or to the Russians? Or ....." Joey's face froze, and then he said with an unusually ugly expression, "or it doesn't matter who it sells to, as long as it can provoke a conflict between Germany and Russia, Denmark is worth the fare." ”

"At this stage, Russia is a challenger to Britain, and if I were in the Conservative government, I would quietly contact Germany and Denmark separately, on the one hand, to express my willingness to support Germany's plan to control Denmark, and on the other hand, to also disclose this plan to Denmark, and then to suggest that Denmark seek Russian support."

"In this way, Denmark becomes a problem between Germany and Russia, and the British are again in a position where they can advance or retreat."

After listening to Joey's conspiracy theory-like conclusions, Prime Minister Bismarck's face immediately became ugly, and he turned his head to look at Crown Prince Frederick, whose face was also extremely ugly.

At this time, Joey finally noticed the eye contact between his father and the Prime Minister, and thought that his thoughts were too dark, and this time finally caused his father and Bismarck to be unhappy.

Ai Ai explained, "Father, my lord, this is just my unilateral speculation, there are still many gentlemen in the UK, and it may not be really ......"

"Joey, if...., I mean, if the British hints are sincere, and we are here to worry and speculate, wouldn't we miss a great opportunity?" Crown Prince Frederick asked with a straight face.

"Father, are the British hints verbal, or written? Is it the government's statement, or the opinion of a political party, or the opinion of an individual? Joey asked cautiously.

"Suppose this so-called verbal message comes from the mouth of the British Prime Minister." Chancellor Bismarck replied.

"My lord, please be careful, even if it is a treaty duly ratified by the British Parliament, the British can have a hundred excuses to delay and resist." Although Joey did not express his clear objection, his expression was unusually resolute.

"However, this is a reputable promise from among the nobility, and for this gentleman, although he is of Jewish origin, everyone has always held him in high esteem," said Crown Prince Frederick, frowning.

Joey immediately understood who this person was in his father's mouth, and it seemed that the Englishman was even quicker than he expected, and had already extended his instigation like a poisonous tongue.

"Father, of course, there are upright politicians in this world, such as Mr. Greston, who has extremely high moral standards for himself and others, but Prime Minister Disraeli who gives Armenian Christians to the Turks and can openly speak out in support of the Turks is definitely not a moral man."

"In short, father, you must not underestimate the despicable heart of a nobleman, especially since they have a history of sending their own king to the gallows." With that, Joey's calm gaze turned to Prime Minister Bismarck.

Speaking bluntly in person has always been a character that the old prime minister likes, and the old prime minister also looked at Joey with appreciation, and then asked seriously, "So, Jojo thinks the British are lying to us?" ”

"My lord, I don't dare to jump to this conclusion." Joey replied with the same seriousness, "But I think we can test the integrity of the British before deciding whether to use Plan A or Plan B." ”

"How?"

"Let the British Government make a written commitment to recognise their support for our acquisition of control of the Straits of Zealand, and their willingness to form a strong military alliance with us in the event of the threat of war against Germany."

Joy's demands clearly went beyond what Chancellor Bismarck could have imagined for the British, and in the nineteenth-century diplomatic field, which was full of private intrigues and deals, Britain was so clear about its military alliances with other countries that the British government would never agree to it until the conflict involved the final moment of national war.

Chancellor Bismarck looked at Joy and shook his head slowly.

"If that's the case, then the bottom line is to have Prime Minister Disraeli write a personal letter to clarify the matter." Looking at the Prime Minister who shook his head, Joey lowered his requirements after a moment's thought, "I also want Foreign Minister Cecil to endorse it." ”

"Jojo, as you mean, Britain is so implausible, and now is not the best time to take control of the Straits of Zealand, so what is the point of us asking the British for such a written commitment?" Crown Prince Frederick asked suspiciously.

"Proof, father, this is a corroboration that the British have not lied to us, but, I bet that Prime Minister Disraeli and Foreign Minister Cecil did not dare and would not write this letter."

"There are no absolutes, what if they actually wrote it?" Bismarck tapped the back of his hand lightly, and asked with a smile on his lips.

"Then carry out your plan A, my lord, and immediately send troops to occupy Denmark, and at the same time publish this letter, indicating that our action to punish the Kingdom of Denmark is supported by the British." Joey replied without hesitation.

"That's all, gone?" Chancellor Bismarck asked, with a slight smile on his face.

"There are a few other ways, but when measured, their benefits are not as great as your methods, Prime Minister." Joey replied honestly.

"For example?"

"Find an excuse to publish the letter of the British Conservative Party, if you want to do this, you must grasp the voice of the mainstream media, otherwise if you are not careful, it will turn into us not properly keeping the diplomatic secrets between the two countries, and we will become dishonest and unreliable, and dishonesty is not a good thing for our national strategy."

"Or, to tell Denmark and Russia the contents of this letter in private, this is nothing more than to increase the goodwill of the Danish and Russian governments towards us, but goodwill is not always as real as Danish territory."

Hearing this, Prime Minister Bismarck's face finally filled with a smile.