Chapter 478: Misjudgment (2nd Update)
On July 21, Guo Xing'a declared war, but until July 27, Guo Xing'a was still carrying out the ceremony, and he did not officially start it at all. The reason why Goxinga dragged on for so long was not only that the ceremony took time, but also that he was also guessing what the Russians were doing. Although the two countries do not have permanent ministers and do not have formal diplomatic relations, it is really strange that the other side has not reacted at all to such a big thing as a declaration of war. Therefore, Guo Xing'a pretended to calmly hold the oath meeting, and at the same time mobilized all the forces of the miscellaneous affairs department to investigate what tricks Lao Maozi was doing.
But the result is really helpless, Lao Maozi really didn't do tricks, they thought that Guo Xing'a was doing tricks. The Aihui agreement negotiated between Goxinga and Zou Degui and Malevich in Aihui was only an armistice agreement without even a text, not only was it a verbal agreement, but the two sides were also in a state of war de jure terms. Goxinga's declaration of war this time is a bit of a move, but Jian* has never declared war with Russia, and he did not declare war when Russia invaded, so this declaration of war can be regarded as a supplementary war procedure.
Karsakov was still a little worried about Goshinga's declaration of war, but his British senior counselor, Kohl, concluded that the declaration was a Goshinga bluff. There will be no real action other than to intimidate the Russians, because a declaration of war at this time is the most unreasonable. Now that half of the autumn has passed, the Heilongjiang River basin has already seen some cold, and the cold winter is coming soon, and no one in normal people will pick this time to come out to fight. Either it will start fighting in the summer, or it will simply wait until the beginning of spring next year, no matter how elite the Manchurian army of Guoxing'a is, it is not God's opponent.
After Goxinga declared war, he did not cross the river for several days, which also strengthened Cole's judgment. Cole is not empty words, and the intelligence department of the British is not dry, they can't get the current information of Manchuria, but they can still get the intelligence of the Qing court. Cole studied all the previous battles of Goxinga in Guannai, and focused on the battle columns of the Gu'an Army against the British and French forces, and organized a large number of people to analyze Goxinga's combat style.
"Goxinga is a typical oriental general, he pays great attention to the so-called art of war of the Chinese, and attaches great importance to the suddenness of battle, so his army mostly attacks with surprise attacks and sneak attacks, and is extremely good at setting ambushes. If he really had plans for war against Russia, then by the time you received his notice of declaration of war, the Manchurian shells would have already landed in your courtyard. It is very abnormal to declare war without war like the current situation, and there is a 90% chance that he will just declare war to put pressure on you! Kohl explained Karsakov's 10 classic battles in Gohinga, and then confidently came to a conclusion.
"We have rejected their note, and it doesn't mean much to declare war if they just want to put pressure on us." Karsakov felt that Kohl's judgment was very reasonable, but he still could not understand why Gohin Ah was doing such meaningless things.
"The cowardly Easterners are afraid of war, and they probably want to use the threat of war to force you to submit. Of course, if the threat has no effect, I believe that when the spring flowers bloom, they will really start a war. Although Kohl judged that Goxinga would not really use troops at present, he knew that the Manchurian army still dared to fight.
"War is inevitable, so what should we do?" Eighty percent of Karsakov's family depended on the British, and he had to listen to Cole's advice.
"It would be foolish to sit and wait for the Manchurians to attack you, and after the Manchurians cut off the trade routes in the Sutai region of Uriya, your country needs a war to reverse the current predicament. Twenty-five divisions of reinforcements from Europe are already on the way, and they will arrive in about a month, and if we can catch the fighters, we can catch the Manchurians by surprise! "The purpose of the British's aid to the Russians was to keep them in North Manchuria, so Kohl had been looking forward to a full-scale war between China and Russia, and he was not here to help Karsakov take care of his family.
"Even with these reinforcements, our strength is still inferior to that of Northern Manchuria, and even if we use the surprise attack to win a momentary victory, we will eventually lose. We don't even have enough food to keep reinforcements in the Armu valley for a long time. Although Karsakov had to listen to Cole, he was not at all interested in the suggestion to send him to death.
"Our consulate staff have discovered a large-scale military movement in the territory of North Manchuria, and these troops are definitely going to be brought to the north to threaten you, although this may seem terrifying, but it is also an opportunity given to you by God. The military strength of Northern Manchukuo is not very strong, and if they transfer all their troops to the northern border, their interior will definitely be very empty. As long as your 300,000-strong army finds a weak point in the North Manchurian defense line during the long winter and breaks into it when spring comes, it will definitely lead to a complete collapse of the North Manchurian defense line. They have large grain producing areas and industrial areas in their rear, and the armies of your country that invade their territory will surely have a good harvest, and then they will be able to feed themselves with their sabers. Once your country occupies the lands in the south, such as the Mongolian steppe or the interior of Heilongjiang, grain will no longer be a problem for your country. At that time, the government of North Manchuria, which had been hit hard, would have to sue for peace with your country, and even if your country could not obtain land in the south, it would certainly not be a problem to preserve the current occupied areas. In today's situation, seeking peace through war is the only way out for your country in the Far East, and the current deployment of Goxinga is a good opportunity for your country to launch an offensive! Kohl once again proposed his plan for peace by war, which was currently the only way out for Russia in the Far East.
The Russians' greed for land made them not give up the Outer Northeast no matter what, but Goxinga certainly wouldn't let go. As long as this contradiction is not resolved, the two countries will always be under the shadow of war, and the rapid development of North Manchuria has made the Russians in the shadows even more terrified. Only through a war can the territorial dispute be settled that there is a possibility of peace on both sides of the Heilongjiang River. The idea of the Russians was to force Goshinga to sue for peace, and the two sides signed a formal treaty that legally recognized the Outer Northeast as Russia's ownership. Of course, this idea is a bit wishful thinking on the part of Westerners, just as Kohl, an islander, forgot to consider an urgent national mobilization of Goxinga, and Karsakov took the treaty too seriously. In the Chinese world, my things are my things, not something that can be changed by writing a piece of paper. Even if the Russians really defeated Goxinga and signed a contract to cede territory, the Chinese would certainly not give up. Whether it is ten years or a hundred years, no matter how long it takes, the Chinese will do everything possible to recover their land.
Karsakov stayed with Kohl for another two days, and seeing that Goshinga really did not send troops to fight, he prepared to return to Yarkutsk, the chief of Eastern Siberia. However, as soon as their team left Hailan Pao, the overwhelming artillery fire on the opposite shore came, and it could only be said that their lives were really good, but the two people who had just left the city less than three miles were not in a happy mood at all.