Section 582 Mexican Crisis (2)
Under the influence of Mexico's political crisis, stock markets have fallen. In particular, the stocks of some export-import banks and shipping companies have fallen very sharply. The capital market is worried that once China goes to war with Britain and the United States, the US cotton trade will be greatly affected, and it is the import and export trade and shipping that will be involved. At the same time, the cotton market in various countries skyrocketed, and the price of cotton rose by three percent in an instant.
The chaotic capital market instantly detonated a round of economic crisis, but only in a few countries, mainly Germany, France and the United States.
Germany defeated France and achieved national reunification, and at the same time, Alsace, which had a developed textile industry in France, and Lorraine, which was rich in coal and iron resources, and 8 billion gold francs of reparations flowed in, and the unified German market ushered in an extremely rare prosperity. The German government, which had a huge amount of reparations, invested heavily in heavy industry, mainly the railway industry, adopted the most advanced technology, increased industrial concentration, and rapidly increased Germany's industrial strength.
German metallurgical and machinery giants such as Krupp, who had already made war money in the war, blindly expanded production with profits and low-interest loans from the government, and coal production quickly jumped to the fourth place in the world, second only to China, the United States, and Britain. Germany's steel industry, manufacturing industry, and arms industry have expanded rapidly, and its comprehensive power has surpassed that of the United States, second only to China and Britain. The textile industry has also expanded exponentially because of Alsace, the center of France's textile industry, but it is still not as good as the level of the United Kingdom 20 years ago.
German industry was already in surplus, the surge of capital brought about by the large gold reparations created a large number of bubbles, heavy industry was already seriously in surplus, light industry was heavily dependent on foreign raw materials, the financial industry expanded exponentially, with gold as the standard, and after the completion of the gold standard, twice as much new money was printed than before. Dozens of new joint-stock banks were formed, lending heavily to coal, metallurgy, and railroads, and the crisis in these industries quickly involved the financial sector, causing a large number of bankruptcies.
Unlike Germany, France mainly loses too much blood, Germany is inflation, the economy is bubbled, France is deflation, prices continue to fall, regardless of whether the reparations are borrowed or not, in the end all French people have to bear, so the level of wages in France has fallen, purchasing power has declined, and luxury goods that have always been popular in France have begun to be unsold. The developed banking sector, which has also lost a large amount of gold reserves, is in a situation of capital shortage, heavily dependent on external funds, high domestic interest rates, and Chinese and British funds are pouring into France. These funds, in turn, continued to take advantage of the profits, and the French were exploited.
The French government also borrowed money to build railways on a large scale and improve the railway network. After the loss of Alsace and Lorraine, the cotton textile industry, metallurgical and coal industries declined, and imports continued to deteriorate French trade. France's political power is rapidly recovering, but the economy has been weak. Under this economic crisis, it was directly paralyzed. Because the import of capital from China and Britain was cut off, France starved to death.
Then came the problems of the American economy, the continuous turmoil in Europe in recent years, the United States enjoyed a rare peace in the Americas, and in the midst of the song and dance, the American industry and transportation industry grew savagely, but about half of the investment was British bonds and stocks. The metallurgical and mechanical manufacturing industry grew more slowly under the squeeze of European products. However, the United States has abundant coal reserves, and is concentrated in the Alabachian Mountains, and is very easy to exploit, the Balachian coalfield runs through 9 states from north to south along the Appalachian Mountains, with complete coal types, more than 30 mineable coal seams, stable reserves, few fault structures, strong integrity, less water cut, many coal types are high-quality coking coal and thermal coal, and the reserves can be mined in the open pit 99.7 billion tons. Such mining conditions dwarf the coal mines in the Ruhr region of Germany, and they are located in the industrially developed eastern region, which is impossible without growth, making the United States one of the world's top three coal producers. Production has doubled in the last five years.
Stimulated by lucrative industries such as railroad transportation, grain and cotton trade, and coal mining, the US financial industry has expanded rapidly, and although the scale of New York is not as large as that of London and China's Songjiang and Guangzhou, it is more active than ever, and its credit is highly inflated and speculation is rampant. In the last decade, the number of banks has increased from 824 to 1,416, and lending operations have increased from $445 million to $684 million. If the influence of the United States is not in the top ten in the world, far inferior to that of the old European countries, then the American financial industry can definitely rank among the top three in the world. Those countries in Europe that surpass the United States in terms of influence and even overall national strength, whether they are France, Germany, Russia, or Austria-Hungary, can only look to the United States.
Due to the confrontation with China, the channel for American cotton to enter China was immediately affected, and the American company banned American merchant ships from passing through the Panama Canal, and the price of cotton in the world skyrocketed, while the price of cotton in the United States plummeted. The rest of the U.S. industry was quickly hit, and the prices of railroads and state bonds for public works that relied on British money plummeted, and the British even siphoned off the U.S. market to avoid risk. A serious crisis erupted in the U.S. financial industry immediately, more so than any other industry.
Only the two major powers, China and the United Kingdom, have not entered a state of economic crisis for the time being, but have only been affected somewhat. This is mainly due to the fact that the two countries have just emerged from the economic crisis in previous years and have squeezed out the water. Moreover, in the economic crisis, Britain completely forged the Indian market to replace other industrial countries with deep barriers in Europe and the United States. China has been squeezed cleaner and has largely survived the economic crisis on its own, with a larger economy between its own territory and its overseas territories and colonies combined than the rest of the world combined. Coupled with the high tariff policy pursued by the crown prince, China has actually formed a closed economy between mainland China and its overseas territories and colonies, which is difficult to withstand external shocks.
It is impossible to continue the confrontation, and the Americans do not want to fight, they have more internal problems than externally, especially with China, and there is no half-penny benefit. In addition to being attracted by Florida, the alliance with Britain is mainly for collective security, and the United States is always worried about China's continued expansion to the east, and it needs the help of a powerful country like Britain to resist China.
But the direct war with China still makes the Americans very worried, they have already fought once, and they know that it is impossible to win against China, and at most they can change their local interests, but in the last war, China was singled out by Britain, the United States, Spain and Russia in Europe, and now Russia is dependent on China, at least on the surface, the rest of Europe, Austria-Hungary is surviving, Prussia is unifying Germany, the limelight is in the limelight, and France has just suffered a heavy blow, in this case, unless Germany is crazy and willing to get involved in a war that cannot be fought with its own eight poles, And if it goes all out, the United States will only be able to unite with Britain against China, and with the habit of the British, it may be that the ground war will be dominated by the United States.
The Americans are not fools, and it may be more painful for them to use the national strength of more than 30 million people against a land power with a population of more than 600 million.
Therefore, the confrontation is confrontation, and the United States has begun to seek a way to reconcile.
Britain was on the side of the United States at this time, Britain was already involved, and it was impossible to mediate, and Bismarck, who was playing a balance game in Europe and had reached the peak of his prestige as a diplomat, was a very good candidate, and the United States invited Bismarck to intervene in mediation.
Bismarck immediately intervened, not to show off, but because once China went to war with Britain, according to the treaty of alliance between Britain and Prussia, Germany must now enter the war, and Germany does not want to get involved in a war that it cannot profit.
Germany's strong national strength is the backing of Bismarck's use of diplomatic means, and without this strength, he may not have done better than Li Hongzhang.
Bismarck summoned the Chinese ambassador to Berlin, a newly promoted ambassador who had only been a consul or translated into a minister, because according to the European diplomatic tradition, ambassadors were only stationed among the great powers, and obviously there was no Germany before reunification, and it was really not a big country in the eyes of China. China had previously had ambassadors to only four European countries, Britain, France, Russia and Austria.
Bismarck expressed Germany's attitude that it did not want to see a conflict between China and Britain and the United States, and at the same time said that Germany had an alliance with Britain, and that Germany would not be able to guarantee its neutrality in the event of a war between China and Britain and the United States. Bismarck was threatening German neutrality, which Germany had at this time. After the reunification of Germany, the population doubled and the mobilized forces doubled. In the event of full mobilization, Germany could provide two million troops. With the support of the two rich countries, Britain and the United States, there is no doubt that these forces will be maintained to fight. Britain can provide a million troops, and the United States is at least a million, a total of four or five million troops.
China has a larger military, but how much can China invest in the Americas? Long-distance transportation limited the investment of troops, and it was unthinkable to fight across the sea, transport millions of troops, and maintain related provisions. The distance between Europe and the Americas allowed the maritime power, Great Britain, to transport more troops, and American resources to provide for these troops. In the end, China can only rely more on the strength of the American territories to fight, and it is still difficult to confront Britain and the United States with the American territories alone, not to mention that there is a Germany that is in the limelight.
But Bismarck's threat was because he did not want to get involved in the war, and if he really wanted to fight, he would be emboldened, as he had done with Austria and France, and put on a weak posture to induce the other side to go to war first. So after the threat, Bismarck quickly proposed that Germany was willing to mediate the Mexican crisis. It is hoped that Mexico's posture will return to the previous one, with China and the United States withdrawing at the same time.
Bismarck was shocked by the Chinese ambassador's disagree, saying that the rule of the Carlos family in Mexico was very unpopular, and that China wanted to send a king from China to Mexico. China has no intention of annexing Mexico to China, but only hopes that it will bring peace and stability to Mexico under the rule of a more responsible Chinese monarch. The ambassador hoped that Germany would support China's actions.
Bismarck felt that this mediation might not be so easy, China was not threatened, but leaving Mexico under Chinese rule would be tantamount to a declaration of war.