Photographed at a welcome ceremony on the docks of New York -- that's fine, but when did he give such a lengthy interview?

"Marquis Guan, I want to apologize to you first." Lincoln smiled, "I didn't expect Harles's efficiency either...... Such a ...... High. By the time you and Simon were giving your speech, the photos had been developed. The staff of the New York Tribune and the War Department took your previous bus and delivered the sample to the White House. Of course, the article was written in advance haode. Harles' Jihua will be in the newspaper tomorrow, but I think I'd like you to take a look at it anyway. ”

Guan Zhuofan muttered in his heart, and his eyes quickly widened at a glance - this is not Lao Tzu's "Pingnan Eight Strategies".

The so-called "Eight Strategies for Pingnan" is a "proposal" secretly handed over to the US Government by Guan Zhuofan through Charles the US consul in Shanghai and Pu Anchen, the US minister in Beijing, and it is his analysis of the US civil war situation and the corresponding countermeasures proposed, which can be regarded as a "strategic planning document."

At the beginning of the American Civil War, both the North and the South were optimistic, believing that they would win and would soon do so. The federal government recruited volunteers for the first time, and the service period was only three months, that is, the judgment at that time was that the war would end in three months. The optimism of the South is especially excessive, believing that one Southerner can fight ten Northerners, and as soon as the war starts, the Northerners will definitely immediately fart.

It was a rare spectacle in the history of warfare: the war broke out, and the people on both sides were elated, and they all regarded the war as a grand carnival with rare opportunities.

The most pessimistic estimate of the duration of the war is six months.

However, the battle grew bigger and longer. Trimester. Six months. year. Two years...... By the third year, the two sides had entered the bloodiest and most brutal stage, two huge war machines were twisted together, the flesh and blood of countless soldiers were ground into powder, and a casual battle was carried out with tens of thousands or even tens of thousands of casualties.

The north has an absolute superiority in manpower and material resources, but it has always been inferior to the south. The pressure on the federal government is mounting. Needless to say, the disgruntled government that supported unification and pro-abolition was incompetent, and those who were sympathetic to the South and slavery were getting more and more in tone with each passing day. And negotiating peace, needless to say, is to allow the South to become independent, which means a permanent split in the United States.

As for the strategy of the Northern Army, later generations of speakers mostly thought that the federal government had put too much effort into the Eastern Front and had made too late a decision on the Western Front, otherwise the war would not have dragged on for so long before the winner was decided.

There are also those who believe that the Southern Army had similar problems, if not too entangled in the Eastern Front. And if we can break through from the Western Front, the situation will be very different.

Kwan Zhuofan thinks. Of course, there is, but not necessarily.

Before the Civil War, the regular army of the United States was only 16,000 people, and with the vast territory of the United States, it was basically the state of putting Manan Mountain, not to mention that there were still a considerable number of southerners in this soldier.

And with the size of the north and the south, where is this bit of soldiers and horses enough? Therefore, due to the quantity and quality of troops, there is no way to "fight in a big way" from the very beginning of this war, and its scale must be a process of gradual upgrading and expansion, in which both sides are building and developing their own armies step by step from small to large, or even from scratch. So, the war went from three or six months to one or two years...... The root cause is not a mistake in the decision, but that since it is such a process, it must take a considerable amount of time.

This is especially true for the North. As soon as Lincoln was elected president, the South tore its face, tore its flags and set off artillery, and expanded its armaments. At this time, there was still some time before Lincoln was sworn in, and no matter how much the South tossed during this time, he could only stare dryly and do nothing. And caretaker President Buchanan is a Democrat, who has always sympathized with the South, intentionally or unintentionally, and has done nothing, and has been dragged down by the South in terms of war readiness for many months.

Figuratively speaking, at the beginning of the war, the north could only exert two parts of the force at most, and the south was slightly better because it was prepared early, but it could only use five points of force at most, and the war had to wait until the south used ten points of force and the north used eight or nine points of force before we could see the eyebrows. And waiting, naturally, it takes time.

As for the fact that both sides have put their main forces on the eastern front and have been entangled repeatedly, so that for a considerable period of time they have neither the intention nor the ability to look westward, Guan Zhuofan believes that the fundamental reason has little to do with strategic decision-making, but because the capitals of both sides are in the east -- and most importantly, they are too close to each other.

At the beginning of the Confederacy, the capital was Montgomery, Alabama, and after Virginia joined, the capital was moved to Richmond, Virginia. Thus an even greater spectacle in the history of warfare emerged: two warring countries with such a vast territory that their capitals were only 200 miles apart and could be reached by train in a day.

For the Confederacy, the loss of Richmond was tantamount to the loss of the country; For the Federation, although the loss of Washington will not lead to the loss of the country, it is politically unbearable, so there is no suspense, and the two sides concentrate on the most important liliang, on the one hand, to ensure that their capital is not lost, and on the other hand, they hope to open a golden finger and capture the other party's capital in one fell swoop and end the war. So there is no suspense, the 200-mile section from Washington to Richmond has become a great assura field on earth.

It can be said that this situation is the result of the initiative of the South, and the North cannot but be forced to take over, and there is no other way.

The fundamental pattern of the US civil war was that the north attacked and the south defended, that is, the North wanted to destroy the dynasty, and the South only wanted to protect itself -- the South never thought of annexing the North in turn, and in fact there was no such possibility. The fundamental strategic thinking of the south is to replace defense with offense and force the north to hold peace talks. Guan Zhuofan believes that the reason why the South chose Richmond as its capital was not only to take care of Boss Virginia's face, but also because Virginia was the most powerful of the 11 southern states at that time, and the main reason was precisely the realization of this strategic thinking: the so-called Son of Heaven guarding the country.

Some people believe that the Confederation should have made its capital inland, let the Northern Army enter the country, and defeated or dragged down its opponents by means of movement warfare and guerrilla warfare. Kwan Zhuofan believes that the Confederacy is in fact only a loose alliance, and if the enemy army penetrates deep into the border and wreaks havoc, each state will inevitably fight its own battle, so as to defeat the enemy individually. Moreover, the strategic depth of the south is not as great as it seems, and the Maritime Federation has an absolute advantage, and if it is attacked by the north and the south, it will die faster.

Therefore, Guan Zhuofan believes that the strength of the eastern front does not need to be weakened, and this pattern does not need to be changed after he intervenes in history, but the western front should indeed be strengthened, and a second battlefield should be opened up in a real way, so that the advantages of the northern national strength and manpower can be brought into full play, so that the relatively weak south will be left and right, and then it will be difficult to take care of the end.

It should be noted that the so-called "Western Front" is not the "West" as commonly said, because the western part of the United States had just begun to develop, and the war had not yet spread, and the battlefield was mainly in the East, and the "Western Front" was actually the "Western West of the East", that is, the central part of the United States, along the Mississippi River.

Guan Zhuofan's suggestion is that the first step should be to completely open up the Mississippi River, the main artery that runs through the north and south of the United States, and divide the south into two, so as to cut off its east-west connection, so that the eastern part of the Confederacy cannot get the support of its western manpower and material resources, and also hinder its north-south waterway transportation.

To do this, Vicksburg on the Mississippi River had to be taken. At that time, Grant, the general of the Northern Army, was leading his troops to attack Vicksburg, and the strong attack was unfavorable, so it was changed to a long-term siege. Vicksburg is located on a cliff and is impregnable, and there are many doubts about when Grant will be able to sell it. Some people are worried that Grant's lone army will go deep into the enemy's territory, and if the southern army gathers reinforcements and attacks inside and outside, Grant will be under the fortified city and there is a risk of destruction; Some people were worried that the troops would be pinned down on the far western front, and if the southern army on the eastern front took the opportunity to attack, the capital would be worried, and the southern army on the eastern front did show signs of abnormal movement at that time.

Kwan Cheuk-fan firmly supported Grant's action. He believed that the main forces of the Southern Army were concentrated on the Eastern Front, and it was difficult to rescue Vicksburg on a large scale; The number of federal troops on the Eastern Front is not too small, and if you keep a close eye on the defense and do not take the enemy lightly, there should be no problem in self-preservation. Grant is about to reap the benefits of the mountain, and he must not give up at this time.

A few days after this "proposal" was issued, the commander of the Eastern Front Confederate Army, Robert Brown. Lee made a big attack to the north, only to be defeated by Gettysburg; The day after the Battle of Gettysburg, on July 4th, American National Day, Vicksburg surrendered to Grant.

*(To be continued......)